10 key trends to shape global air travel by 2043 — reports

 

 

Per Simple Flying, reports by Airbus and Boeing have made projections on the future of the global aviation industry which are notable for highlighting how increasingly important Asia is and that the industry is expected to continue growing in the foreseeable future.

According to Simple Flying, forecasting future demand is incredibly important for Airbus and Boeing, as they have to plan decades in advance with designing new aircraft and developing new technologies, adding that at the same time, it also takes years to expand manufacturing capacity to meet demand.

Citing aviation analytics company Cirium, it reports that 45,900 new aircraft deliveries are anticipated by 2043 worth $3.3 trillion.

Simply Flying lists the following as some of the key aviation trends by 2043.

1

Doubling of the global fleet

Global fleet to be 48,230 aircraft in 2043

 

 

By the end of 2023, the global fleet of commercial aircraft stood at 24,260, which is expected to double to 48,230 aircraft by the end of 2043. Of the fleet in 2043, 5,800 will be aging legacy jets in service today (Boeing estimates 6,195 to be legacy jets). This means that the airline industry will need to deliver another 42,430 aircraft.

 

By the end of 2023, the airline industry (mainly Boeing and Airbus) had backlogs of 13,070 aircraft. This leaves an open demand of around 20,440 aircraft. In all, Airbus expects there to be demand for 33,510 new deliveries over that period.

 

2

Leading demand markets

China will lead demand at 9,520 aircraft

 

China is expected to be the largest single market for new aircraft deliveries until 2043 (opening a great opportunity for COMAC). Of the expected 33,510 deliveries, China is expected to receive 9,520. No other country was itemised by Airbus (the United States is bundled with Canada as North America and is expected to receive 7,100 new aircraft).

The rest of the Asia Pacific (excluding the Middle East and China) is expected to take 9,990 new aircraft, and Europe (with Russia) will receive 8,050 new aircraft. The Middle East follows at 3,740, and Latin America is to get 2,570. Africa is expected to be the smallest regional market with a demand for 1,460 new aircraft (even though Africa will be the engine of population growth).

3

Growing middle class

1.7 billion more middle-class people

 

 

Airbus says that GDP growth, population growth, and trade will be the main drivers of the aviation market. Compared to 2023, Airbus forecasts that by 2043, there will be another 1.4 billion people living in urban areas, while the world’s population will grow by 1.3 billion (almost the population of China today).

 

 

Ultimately, flying is a luxury that is reserved for those who can afford it, and Airbus forecasts that there will be 1.7 billion more middle-class people worldwide in 2043. This will be driven by the world’s GDP growing by around 2.6 percent per year. Airbus defines the middle class as households with an annual income of between $20,000 and $150,000 in terms of purchasing power at constant 2015 prices.

4

Express air cargo

Express air cargo to be 25% of air freight

 

 

Airbus anticipates express air cargo growth to outpace general air cargo growth and will grow from 20 percent of the share of air cargo in 2023 to 25 percent in 2043. In 2023, the global freight tonne kilometers (FTK) was 250 billion; by 2043, that is expected to swell to 525 billion (over doubling in size).

 

 

Express air cargo growth is to grow at a compounding rate of 4.4 percent between 2027 and 2043, while general air cargo will also grow but at a slower rate of 2.7 percent over the same period. Meanwhile, global air traffic is expected to grow by 3.1 percent year-on-year.

5

World freighter fleet

Freighter fleet to reach 3,360 by 2043

 

 

In 2023, the world’s freighter fleet of aircraft stood at 2,200 aircraft, and by 2043, it is expected to grow to 3,360 cargo planes. Of the world’s 2043 fleet of 3,360 freighters, 890 of them will be aging airframes in service today. That means that 1,330 aircraft will be replaced, and another 1,140 will need to be added (a total of 2,470 new cargo aircraft).

 

 

Interestingly, only a minority of these 2,470 cargo aircraft will be new builds. Airbus estimates that only around 940 of the cargo aircraft added to the global fleet will be new builds; the remaining 1,530 aircraft will come from aircraft conversions. It is common for old passenger jets to be repurposed as freighters.

6

Demand for new commercial aircraft

42,430 new passenger and freighter aircraft

 

 

Over the period 2024 to 2043, Airbus foresees a demand for 42,430 new passenger and freighter aircraft (Boeing forecasts 43,975 new aircraft). Of these, single-aisle aircraft will continue to claim the lion’s share (80%, or 33,510 aircraft), with the remaining 20 percent being 8,920 widebody aircraft (of which around 940 will be new-build freighters).

 

 

That is an average of 2,223 aircraft per year that must be delivered. Time will tell if Boeing and Airbus are able to scale up their production to meet the demand. In 2024, Airbus delivered 766 commercial aircraft , while Boeing had a poor year, delivering just 348 commercial aircraft. Time will tell if new entrants like COMAC can meet some of the demand (the new planemaker delivered a dozen C919s last year and is planning to deliver 50 in 2025).

7

Regional jet demand is small

 

Regional jets to be 4% of demand

 

 

Boeing expects the demand for regional jets to remain very small. Of the 43,975 new aircraft Boeing forecasts to be delivered over the next 20 years, only four percent (4%), or 1,525 aircraft, will be regional jets.

 

 

Freighters are expected to have the smallest share (2% or 1,005 aircraft), while widebodies take 18 percent of the deliveries, totaling 8,065 aircraft. The bulk of the demand will remain for single-aisle aircraft (like the Boeing 737, COMAC C919, and Airbus A320/A321 families), with 33,380 expected deliveries (or 76% of deliveries).

8

Average aircraft age rising

 

Widebodies are almost 2 years older

 

 

Boeing points out that the years 2020-2023 saw half the normal retirement rate for aircraft, with airlines temporarily restraining retirements. As a result, the average age of a single-aisle passenger aircraft has risen from 10 years in 2019 to 11.3 years in 2024, and that of widebodies has increased from 9.5 years to 11.2 years.

 

 

It’s unclear what has been driving this trend. It’s likely partly driven by delivery constraints due to COVID-19 disrupting supply chains and Boeing’s more recent 737 MAX woes. Boeing only delivered 348 new aircraft in 2024, and airlines must wait longer to receive their aircraft.

9

Productivity gains continue

 

Aircraft gain around 25 seats

 

 

Boeing foresees productivity gains continuing but slowing. In 2003, the average aircraft carried around 135 seats, and by 2023, that had risen to around 175. In 2043, the average aircraft should have almost 200 seats.

 

 

Meanwhile, the average passenger load factor rose from over 70 percent in 2003 to over 80 percent in 2023, but it will probably only increase a couple of more percentage points by 2043. In 2003, aircraft were utilised just under eight hours a day, which grew to almost 10 hours in 2023 but is expected to grow to just over 10 hours by 2043.

 

10

Rise of China’s COMAC

Over 700 orders placed for C919

 

 

Currently, it appears that the only company that could challenge the Airbus and Boeing duopoly in the near or medium term is China’s COMAC. China has the domestic demand to mature these aircraft and create economies of scale. While the COMAC C919 has not yet received much export interest, it has received around 750 domestic Chinese orders (possibly more than 1,000).

 

 

For now, it seems Russia’s sanctioned MC-21 will not be an A321 or Boeing 737 competitor, and Embraer is not interested in developing larger aircraft. However, the COMAC remains dependent on Western components (making it vulnerable to US-led sanctions). But China is developing its aviation industry and is currently developing a domestic engine to replace the Franco-American CFM International LEAP engines on the C919 (these might be ready around 2030).