41 African countries to witness accelerated growth, says AfDB

• Africa to maintain 2nd-fastest growth ranking

Onome Amuge

Despite the global economic climate that is presenting various challenges to economies around the world, Africa has displayed an impressive degree of economic resilience, as reflected in the findings of the African Development Bank (AfDB) Group’s African Economic Outlook (AEO). The report forecasts that 41 African countries, including Nigeria, are poised to experience higher growth rates in 2024 compared to 2023.

The AfDB unveiled its African Economic Outlook report during annual meetings in Nairobi, where it shed light on the enormous growth potential of the African continent.

The report described Africa’s growth prospects as “remarkable”, highlighting the continent’s expected ranking as the second fastest-growing region globally after Asia for 2024 and 2025. The positive outlook aligns with the theme of the 2024 African Economic Outlook, “Driving Africa’s Transformation: The Reform of the Global Financial Architecture”, which is also the theme of the bank’s annual meetings.

While there is cause for optimism in Africa’s economic prospects, the African Economic Outlook report highlights a worrisome reality regarding the continent’s progress toward achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

According to the report, Africa is not on course to meet the majority of SDGs by 2030. Without significant interventions to turn the tide, including efforts to alleviate the rapidly growing poverty levels in many African countries, the report predicts that by 2030, Africa could be home to about 87 percent of the world’s extreme poor.

The outlook reveals that Africa is poised to bounce back from previous economic setbacks, with a notable rise in growth projections for the continent.

It forecasts that Africa’s average growth rate will reach 3.7 percent in 2024 and 4.3 percent in 2025, outpacing the projected global average of 3.2 percent. Moreover, 17 African economies are predicted to achieve growth rates of over five percent in 2024, with the figure rising to 24 in 2025 as the pace of growth accelerates.

Africa’s economic trajectory is set to rebound and accelerate beyond pre-2023 levels, with East Africa leading the charge as the fastest-growing region on the continent. The East African region is projected to achieve a growth rate of up to 3.4 percentage points higher than pre-2023 levels.

Other regions across Africa are also expected to experience varying degrees of growth. Some are projected to achieve moderate growth rates, while others will enjoy robust growth. The report also noted that growth prospects vary across Africa’s regions, reflecting differences in economic structure, commodity dependence, and policies.

Growth performance and outlook by region

Despite facing some economic headwinds in 2023, East Africa is expected to rebound as the continent’s fastest-growing region, with a projected real GDP growth rate of 4.9 percent in 2024 and 5.7 percent in 2025. The anticipated growth represents a significant recovery from the region’s estimated GDP growth rate of only 1.5 percent in 2023. However, the economic outlook for East Africa has been slightly downgraded by 0.2 percentage points from the original forecast in the January 2024 Africa’s Macroeconomic Performance and Outlook (MEO). The downgrade is attributed to larger-than-expected contractions in Sudan and South Sudan following the ongoing conflict in the former.

Central Africa’s economic growth trajectory is expected to experience a slight moderation from a robust 4.3 percent in 2023 to a still healthy 4.1 percent in 2024 before rebounding strongly to 4.7 percent in 2025. The upgraded projection for 2025 is attributed to the anticipated positive impact of favourable metal prices, which is expected to drive robust economic growth in Chad and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), two countries that have significant natural resource endowments and are well-positioned to benefit from the higher prices of these commodities.

West Africa is expected to witness a steady uptick in economic growth, with projections pointing towards an increase from an estimated 3.6 percent in 2023 to 4.2 percent in 2024, and consolidating further to 4.4 percent in 2025. The upward revision of 0.3 percentage points from the initial MEO 2024 projections is largely attributed to the anticipated stronger performance of the region’s major economies, including Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, and Senegal.

The economic growth outlook for North Africa is projected to experience a decline in 2024, falling from an estimated 4.1 percent in 2023 to 3.6 percent in 2024, before rebounding to 4.2 percent in 2025. The downward revision of 0.3 percentage points for 2024, when compared to the initial MEO projection, reflects a challenging economic environment in the region. While Libya and Mauritania are projected to maintain their growth trajectory, all other countries in North Africa are forecasted to see a downward revision in their growth projections, indicating a less optimistic outlook in the short term.

Southern Africa’s economic recovery is set to continue at a gradual pace, with projections indicating a slight uptick in growth rates in 2024, followed by a further improvement in 2025.

The latest data from the MEO shows a  0.1 percentage point upgrade in the region’s projected growth rates for 2024 and 2025, primarily driven by an upward revision in South Africa’s projected growth rate, which is estimated to increase by 0.7 percentage points. While Angola, Botswana, Lesotho, Zambia, and Zimbabwe are projected to see a decline in their growth rates, South Africa’s stronger economic performance is expected to offset this impact and support overall regional growth in Southern Africa.