Soybean futures rally ahead of US export data

May contracts for corn and soybean began on a firm note early Thursday in the spot positions in Chicago, although early trading direction has not always borne much relation to what happen ahead in the session.

Soybean futures indeed managed some headway in early deals, adding 0.5 percent to $10.37 ½ a bushel early hours of the day, recovering from a one-month low, helped in part by ideas of some decent US export news, in US Department of Agriculture data later.

Weather forecasts have been one factor handing volatility to prices, particularly concerning prospects for relief for dryness in Argentina and in the US southern plains.

The political climate has been another, and the prospect of trade battles, in which agricultural commodities are viewed as front line targets for restrictions.

“The worries about US China soybean trade have no doubt helps persuade some that holding a long position – real or de facto – is not a good idea,” said Tobin Gorey at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

Richard Feltes at RJ O’Brien flagged “expectations for big US corn and soybean export sales” in the weekly briefing later, with sales of the oilseed expected at 800,000-1.20m tonnes, firm for the time of year, when Brazil typically becomes the default origin as harvest supplies come onstream.

Also, later industry group Nopa will report US crush data for February expected to come in at 149.4m bushels, a record for the month.

It was also a help to soybeans that soymeal futures for May were higher too, adding 0.4% to $372.10 a short ton.

Terry Reilly at Futures International flagged talk that “two 52,000-tonne cargoes [of soymeal] were sold out of the Gulf to the European Union” on Tuesday.

But Argentine weather appears to be taking a turn for better, in terms of heading for “a pattern change, with rains in the northern sections of Buenos Aries and eastern sections of Santa Fe and Entre Rios”, Benson Quinn Commodities, although adding that “southern and western growing regions will likely miss out”, and the rains will be too late for many crops too.