Forestalling irreversible balkanisation of African states (2)

DEMOCRACY HAS BEEN described as a participatory system of government, involving the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, ‘typically through elected representatives.’ In its raw, theoretical context, it is a system of government in which even the very downtrodden is influential and relevant in governance decisions and actions. But we do know in reality that the downtrodden is at the periphery of affairs and at the receiving end as those who bear the brunt of the key political actors. The downtrodden is the canon fodder in times of crises, the tool in the hands of propagandists and the instrument of oppression of fellow downtrodden in the hands of political gladiators and schemers. These are particularly  true in underdeveloped countries with such conditions arising from weak institutions and refusal of leaders to modernise governance.

Various African countries that have gone through a broad spectrum and  various phases of Western style of democratic experiments for well over half of a century are still grappling with adjustment syndromes. These syndromes manifest in many ways. It needs to be emphasised here that democracy is not the only silver bullet for creating all the best and conducive social and economic condition for the people. In a democracy,  decisions are mostly taken after consultations with the grassroots and often through the approval of the legislature. Laws are therefore made by the legislature and sometimes by the judiciary from cases decided. While most laws made by the legislature are ineffectual in the African context, the judiciary, regarded, the world over, as the last hope of the common man, has not lived up to the ideals. Although This presupposes that judiciary, which  is the only place the common man can get justice, has not lived up to its bidding. Much of the reasons for the failure in Africa are related to the overbearing influence of the occupiers of the executive positions over the two other arms of democratic government. Many in the executive have muzzled and hamstrung the judiciary and legislature, effectively running  dictatorship regimes. The list of culprits in the immediate post-independence and contemporary years is indeed long. Their breach of the democratic norms has set Africa back many years, has slowed down the continent’s march to greatness and hindered its progress significantly. Electoral cycles have become mere sham and games of circus in which people will is thwarted rather than respected and electoral results are predetermined. And since the critical institutions expected to ensure orderliness and trust building have been largely bastardised by key executive office holders, particularly the national leadership, especially in the executive arm, everything else goes awry. Law and order become difficult to ensure.

More troubling in the current dispensation is the fact that the boundaries of capitalism are undergoing a continuous reset. Many service institutions providing public goods, hitherto held as government monopolies are undergoing privatisation and in some cases, commercialisation in keeping with the prescriptions of Bretton Woods institutions that called for the structural changes that transferred wealth from public hands to private hands. Now, sectors such as defence and security, health, education, communications, maritime and aviation have become privatised in many countries. In aviation, many national carriers have undergone transition into private entities. Private wealths have grown as a result of privileges and official “connections” that provide leeway for massive revenues. The situation seems to find expression in the book titled “Capitalism Without Capital: The Rise of the Intangible Economy,” written by Jonathan Haskel and Stian Westlake. Their book articulated the relationship between stupendous wealth for the few, arising from modern-day capitalism, and the growing social tensions among the poor in many countries. Very recently, a report that gave expression to this phenomenon was published in July 2020 by Verisk Maplecroft, a leading research firm specialising in global risk analytics, country risk insight and trusted advisory.

The report, written by Miha Hribernik and Tim Campbell, predicted then that emerging markets faced ‘unparalleled’ civil unrest, as economic impacts of pandemic unfolded. The report was very specific about emerging markets set to witness ‘perfect storm’ of unrest, fuelled by inability to bounce back from pandemic. “As the economic fallout from COVID-19 mounts, we expect the ranks of global protesters to swell beyond the numbers seen in 2019, and unrest to sweep across many emerging and frontier markets. According to data from our projections, 37 countries will face spikes in unrest during the second half of this year (2020), driven by a painful post-pandemic economic recovery that will inflame existing dissatisfaction with the governments.” The report predicted further that economies facing a ‘perfect storm’ of risks are mostly concentrated in Africa and Latin America, including Nigeria, DR Congo, Venezuela and Peru. But investors in key emerging markets such as Bangladesh, Turkey and Egypt will also need to brace for a turbulent end to the year.”

African countries should be worried about why European countries that have been hitherto tolerant of migrants are becoming inhospitable to refugees and asylum seekers. For instance, no fewer than a million Sub-Saharan Africans Moved to Europe since 2010. The Sub-Saharan migration to the United States is also growing. The underlying reasons forcing people to leave Sub-Saharan Africa and the routes they use to arrive at their destinations vary. In the US, those fleeing conflict also make up a portion of the more than 400,000 sub-Saharan migrants who moved to the United States between 2010 and 2016. According to data from U.S. Department of Homeland Security and U.S. State Department, 110,000 individuals from sub-Saharan countries were resettled as refugees over this seven-year period. An additional 190,000 were granted lawful permanent residence by virtue of family ties; nearly 110,000 more entered the U.S. through the diversity visa programme. An important question is about whether the inflow of migrants from sub-Saharan Africa to Europe and the US will continue at the same pace in the years ahead? Although migration to and from any country today is inevitable, the scale of migration from Africa and the desperate and risky journeys involved are a reason for worry. How seriously the political leaders prioritise the migration issue remains to be seen. In a system that is not robust enough, these incidents continue unabated while the politically exposed remain unperturbed while they neglect the very masses that they purport to represent. Where corruption is rife, misgovernance is rampant and destruction of the very state that they administer is the end result.

It appears like the triumph of democracy over communist-socialist system is ephemeral if taken in the context of the failed democratic experiments in many developing countries, particularly in Africa. Could it be said that democracy is incompatible with the African way? Only recently, a few weeks ago, turmoil returned to Tunis, cradle of the 2011 Arab Spring. Tunisia, the only country in which democracy seems to have blossomed after the 2011 revolution which toppled a former dictator, returned to a state of near anarchy in July 2021. The present leader has resorted to arbitrary use of powers by sacking the legislature and now ruling by decrees. The failure of the Arab Spring in Egypt, Libya, Yemen and Syria is well known as the very essence of such countries have been called to question by the unending wars in Libya, Yemen and Syria as various identities that were considered inconsequential at peace time became prominent sentiments that prolonged such wars to the extent that those aforementioned countries almost imploded.

Those who hail communist-socalist system might have been secretly rejoicing that democracy is hitting the rock in those countries where it has floundered. The deception of communism has become obvious in the past three decades with the fall of many communist regimes and disintegration of some. The USSR experiment is too well known.

Now, China — much touted for its success in “state capitalism” has been held up high as a beacon of hope that communism has a lot to offer to the world in which democracy has failed. But Xi Jinping, President of China, has provided a clue to the path of failure that, communism leads to a terrible end. Under communism, it is an anathema to be rich, or challenge state authorities. Jack Ma, extremely rich owner of Alibaba and the Ant Group, a business corporation, probably has much to learn from China’s iron hand and repressive regulatory oversight. The same goes for the other celebrities that have been silenced by the state and the most recent travails of Evergrande estate firm that is going bust after repeated default lately — all of which have the potential of unseating President Xi and possibly providing an avenue for agitations by the Chinese people, in which case the artificial bonds tying the various tribes may snap and the various tribes may go separate ways, thus leaving behind a fractured China. Whatever ultimately happens has its own far-reaching implemented for Africa.

Without enduring institutions the complexities of contemporary times will be hard to handle. Such things as urbanisation, crime, health crises, pensions, food security, employment, infrastructure and security by political actors will continue to defy solutions. Managing conflicts of interest and implementation of regulatory oversight on private sector critical services providers, especially those with political connections is very tricky under any compromised circumstance. Many of such service institutions held by private operators end up becoming enmeshed in politics or becoming part of the local politics, with all the compromises in the process of doing so. These will continue to drive a wedge between the people and the corporations who will find one fault or another. The mechanism of collective bargaining and labour unionism will undergo drastic changes or transformation such that resizing or downsizing will keep many who would under different circumstances have been in government employment out of jobs under the private ownership. More discontent will follow, especially in the unfolding age of service industry, defined more by customised, centrally controlled but complex technologies, requiring less of people. Adjusting to these realities will be with frictions and social disruption as the gap between the rich and the poor will become wider. Chances are high that such might threaten some countries and cause them to disintegrate. States will not be able to bring the anomaly under control and the concerns expressed by Haskell and Westlake in their book will come to play. Many governments will be forced to respond with iron hands and might lead to outright repression as in ENDSARS in Nigeria on October 2020, a fulfilment of the risk predicted earlier by  Verisk and Maplecroft. Failed nations don’t just collapsed all of a sudden. A build up of events might reach a tipping point, leading to an irreversible disintegration. With all the symptoms of potential balkanisation of Africa becoming more apparent, leaders from all over the continent need to convene a summit by any name and very urgently address the various existential challenges, restore hope and trust in the populace and preserve the countries sovereignty for the common good of all. The time to start is now.