Grain prices plunge amid supply crunch

By Onome Amuge

Grain futures ended the week marginally lower on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) as lower US exports weighed on corn prices, while traders continued to monitor trade proceedings in the Black Sea region for wheat.

For the week, the most active corn contract lost 0.8 percent or 1-1/2 cents to 6.80-3/4 a bushel,  reaching its lowest price since October 19.

CBOT wheat also finished on a bearish note, losing 9-1/4 cents at $8.29-1/4 a bushel to hit its lowest price since September 19.

Analysts observed that the outlook for U.S. corn exports is bearish, given the transport issues being faced by shippers due to low water level in the Mississippi River as lower U.S. exports added pressure in Chicago corn futures.

Tomm Pfitzenmaier, analyst for Summit Commodity Brokerage, remarked that export competition continues to be a problem for the corn market.

“Without decent export demand it will be difficult for rallies in the corn market to go too far,” he added.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported weekly U.S. corn export sales of 264,000 tonnes in the week ended Oct. 20., a figure that was below the low end of analysts’ estimates that ranged from 350,000 to 1.075 million tonnes.

On its part, the Buenos Aires grains exchange noted that much-needed rain improved conditions for 2022/23 wheat and corn in Argentina, where a prolonged drought had previously resulted in losses and area cuts for both crops.

According to weather reports, the country’s main agricultural regions received between 20 and 100 millimeters of water during the week, which brought relief for crops after significant rainfalls had not been recorded in the region since May this year.

The wheat market is also monitoring talks to extend an export corridor for Ukrainian grain on the Black Sea, following Russia’s intensified invasion.

The Russian government had during the week said provisions of the Black Sea grain deal to ease Russian agricultural and fertiliser exports were not being met, and that Moscow was yet to make a decision on whether the agreement should be extended.

Meanwhile, soybean futures ended firmer as traders recorded increased sales. As a result, the most-active contract rose 6-3/4 cents to $14.00-1/4.

The USDA said weekly U.S. soybean export sales totalled 1.026 million tonnes, in line with analysts’ forecasts for 800,000 to 1.850 million tonnes. Weekly export sales of U.S. wheat were 533,200 tonnes, above the high end of trade expectations that ranged from 100,000 to 500,000 tonnes.