Coffee hits 15-month low over improved production outlook

By Onome Amuge

Arabica coffee futures tumbled to their lowest price in 15 months, pressured by an improving outlook for next year’s crop in top producer Brazil and concern that a global economic downturn could curb demand.

December arabica coffee was down 9.05 cents, or 5.1 percent, at $1.698 per pound at the closing session of the week, after touching a 15-month low of $1.6775. The contract also lost 11 percent in the week and 25 percent in the last four weeks.

According to Fitch Solutions, coffee prices are pressured by an improving crop outlook in Brazil and concerns over demand in Europe amid a broad economic slowdown.

Some dealers, however, see an overdone selling by financial players, noting that funds are driving flat prices without much regard for fundamentals. They added that arabica will continue to sell at a low range until the market can absorb more than a couple days of selling which could lead to a rebound once funds are done with selling.

Sugar futures also traded lower, pressured by ample supply following bumper harvests in top producing regions.

March raw sugar was down 0.13 cents, or 0.7 percent at 17.58 cents per pound after dipping to a 3-1/2 week low of 17.55 cents in an earlier session. The contract lost 4.35 percent in the week and 6.8 percent in the last two weeks. December white sugar also fell 0.3 percent to $515.80 a tonne.

Dealers said the prospect of a global surplus in the current 2022/23 season continued to keep the market on the defensive, though short-term supplies remain tight.

In a similar trend, cocoa futures plunged to bearish territory as speculators increased their bearish bets in cocoa.

December New York cocoa was down $12 or 0.5 percent to $2,302 a tonne, while March London cocoa dropped 8 pounds or 0.4 percent to 1,861 pounds per tonne.