Global cocoa supply plunges amid production shortfall in West Africa
By Onome Amuge
The 2022/23 cocoa season is heading towards a supply deficit in main cocoa-origin countries in West Africa due to a reduction in production. This is as arrivals at Côte d’Ivoire ports of exports were reported to lag behind volumes recorded during the corresponding period of the previous season, according to the International Cocoa Organisation (ICCO).
The ICCO, in its 2023 April cocoa market report, disclosed that as at 7 May 2023,cumulative arrivals of cocoa beans in the world’s largest producing country were seen at 1.945 million tonnes, down by 7.04 per cent, or -137,000 tonnes, compared to 2.082 million tonnes seen over the same period of the previous cocoa year.
In addition, the country’s exports of cocoa beans from October 2022 to March 2023 were reported at 1,005,510 tonnes, slightly down by 0.5 per cent, compared to 1,010,080 tonnes exported from October 2021 to March 2022.
Meanwhile,the production of cocoa beans in Ghana for the 2022/23 is envisaged to overtake the level recorded during 2021/22.
This is as the latest information indicates that the volumes of graded and sealed cocoa beans purchased in Ghana were estimated at 576,738 tonnes from October 2022 to March 2023, up by 10.1 per cent (+53,013 tonnes) compared with 523,725 tonnes purchased during the corresponding period of the previous season.
In Brazil, the cocoa production data published by the Association of the Cocoa Processing Industry (AIPC), indicated that, over the first six months of the 2022/23 cocoa season, the Brazilian cocoa crop output reached 79,313 tonnes, up by nine per cent year-on-year (+ 6,286 tonnes) compared to 73,027 tonnes.
Overall, the current year-on-year reduction of 137,000 tonnes in cumulative arrivals in Côte d’Ivoire combined with the year-on-year increase of 53,013 tonnes in Ghana and 6,286 tonnes in Brazil resulted in a shortfall of 77,701 tonnes of cocoa beans.
According to the ICCO, the decline represents a larger reduction of over seven times the year-on-year decline of 10,672 tonnes observed in grindings for the three main regional cocoa associations during the first half of the 2022/23 cocoa year.
Concerning futures price development, the ICCO report showed that the global cocoa market was generally bullish in April with prices of the front-month cocoa futures contract reaching a six-year high on both the London and New York markets at $2,831 per tonne and US$3,218 per tonne respectively.
It further stated that prices of the MAY-23 contract were bolstered on both sides of the Atlantic during the month under review. In London,prices of the front-month cocoa futures contract were boosted by five per cent, from $2,630 to $2,773 per tonne, while in New York an 11 per cent increase from $2,868 to $3,177 per tonne was recorded in prices of the MAY-23 contract.
Various factors were attributed to have fueled the upward trend observed in prices. On the one hand, the ICCO observed that the persisting spectrum of a global supply deficit which resulted from the currently year-on-year low level of supply of cocoa beans from West Africa contributed to triggering the price hikes.
On the other hand, the report noted that the abundant rains that were recorded in Côte d’Ivoire’s main cocoa-growing regions raised concerns over a possible delay of the country’s mid-crop.
It also noted that the excess humidity in cocoa plantations stemming from the massive rains in cocoa growing areas heightened the likelihood of a potential outbreak of the black pod disease which is detrimental to the crop.