N1trn cash transfer won’t solve Nigeria’s economic challenges

The Nigerian economy is currently passing through a turbulent phase amid its unimpressive socio-economic developmental experiences brought upon by dislocated governance, policies and administrative somersaults by successive regimes for many decades. This observed national issue, no doubt, clearly indicates that the expected intervention or solution, which was urgently needed, is not being strategically addressed with the right approach, nor is it being properly and effectively handled.

However, whatever efforts that are currently being applied, is indicative of the fact that this critical situation on ground is not abandoned nor is it completely ignored on its face value. The economic drivers on the other hand, alongside everyone that is involved in piloting the policies and programmes that shall step the economy up onto a better and improved macroeconomic landscape and status, need to efficiently implement measures that can always indicate and point at productivity (for good administration). The economy has been so messed up that continued delays in fixing it, exposes it to more dangers of failure and outright national collapse.

As a close watcher of the Nigerian economy, and a very concerned person, I believe the situation demands a results-oriented approach that will impact positively on its growth and development. The distribution of the N25, 000 per month to 15 million households flagged off to last for the next three months, known as “Renewed Hope Conditional Cash Transfer Programme”, targeted at uplifting poor and vulnerable Nigerians as an immediate measure to cushion the impact of petrol subsidy removal, represents, in my view, another prodigal policy by a nation that is already sliding into a hopeless financial turmoil. This venture, to my mind, can be likened to the popular saying, “jumping from frying pan to fire”. This is because the gains made from subsidy removal, rather than being deployed effectively for productive utilisation (outside of education and health) in the economy among gainfully engaged artisans in various economic fields, and/or small holder farmers productively working in their farmlands to the national economic growth (GDP/productivity), are now being channelled to unproductive, sluggard individuals that cannot in any national ramification be classified as economic partners in scaling up national economic efficiency. If I may ask, what was the yardstick applied in accrediting and documenting the 15 million beneficiaries of this wasteful N1 trillion three months bonanza? What criteria were actually applied in qualifying these households/beneficiaries (with data kept that shall impact positively on the economy)?

Spending money, using financial resources freely and recklessly (as the above extravagant financial waste represents) leaves a painful toll on the nation’s resources, at such a terrible time in our national history (considering the nation’s annual budget). I personally differ from this very unpopular wasteful programme. The economists should help us here, and be able to compute the impact this spending will have on the annual national budget, when analysed and compared in monetary terms. Do we know that, as a palliative for the very poor and the vulnerable Nigerians, in eradicating poverty, such government altruism and generosity ought to have been by way of organising a free transportation scheme for all the identified and classified vulnerable Nigerians in all the 774 local governments of the federation? It would have registered an even spread of government kindness (for three months, and with the same budget of N1 trillion) attached to the current inflation and the unprecedented rise in transport fares. That would have been very impactful, and also make serious economic sense, with its attached social protection for the poor in the society.

Discussing the fuel subsidy removal further (vis-a-viz palliatives, poverty eradication and social protection measures, in a most feasible solution/intervention option), here is a simple arithmetic and analysis of the figures in comparison with this available data. The very laudable government package to invest N100 billion for the purchase of 3,000 CNG powered 20-seater buses (for cheaper transportation); or the food security proactive plan to cultivate 500,000 hectares of farmland with N200 billion, are both laudable projects that will go a long way in improving the national economic situation. Now, assuming this N1 trillion in a three months cash transfer for 15 million households (a perishable and very momentary expenditure that does not even spread out to a significant proportion of the population of vulnerable Nigerians) is invested on a capital project like mass transportation (exclusively dedicated for the poor Nigerians only, in usage). It shall give 30, 000 CNG powered 20-seater buses, that shall effectively and efficiently operate for another three years; hyping the nation’s daily economic and commercial activities in all the 774 local government areas of the country. Alternatively, deploying the fund to cultivate 2,500,000 hectares of farmland, which will be five times bigger than the already programmed agricultural plan for food security within the economy. Think about the positive impact on the economy!  I know too well that in a state like Anambra, where the governor is a professor of Economics, a lot of exploits are bound to be made in this aspect, towards growing the economy.