Airbus spots opportunity for African air travel growth in Lagos’ unserved routes

Onome Amuge

A new report from global aerospace and aviation giant, Airbus has identified Lagos as one of the key locations for African air travel, hosting multiple untapped routes that rank among the top unserved routes in Africa.

The Airbus report, titled “Exploring the Horizons: A Study of Unserved Air Routes to, from, and within Africa,” provided an in-depth examination of unserved flight routes in Africa, highlighting the five key cities of Lagos, Cape Town, Nairobi, Dakar, and Douala as locations with multiple unserved routes. The report noted that these routes have the potential to become some of the top routes in the continent.

To identify unserved routes, Airbus merged origin and destination (O&D) traffic data with flight schedule data, collected from December 2022 to November 2023. The merged data was then filtered to reveal city pairs with sufficient traffic levels to support non-stop flights, yet currently lacking this service. 

The Airbus report found that the majority of Africa’s currently unserved flight routes are long-haul intercontinental connections to North America, Europe, and the Indian sub-continent. 

The report also revealed that West Africa is home to the most significant number of unserved flight routes in the continent. Specifically, nine out of the fifteen top unserved routes identified in the study either begin or end in West Africa. 

The Airbus study acknowledged West Africa’s fast-rising population, cultural diversity, and critical role in international trade, laying the foundation for potential profitability in developing unserved routes.

Geert Lemaire, the market intelligence and consulting director at Airbus, observed that several identified air routes that experience substantial traffic between city-pairs still do not have regularly scheduled non-stop flights. He identified restrictive bilateral air service agreements, economic volatility, capacity constraints, frequency issues, and operational cost inefficiencies as the primary factors contributing to these routes remaining unserved.

Lemaire also expressed optimism about the aviation giant’s internal capacity for route and network development analysis,noting that Airbus remains committed to partnering with airlines across Africa to identify optimised fleet solutions inline with network development requirements that further stimulate the continent’s air transport industry growth and improve connectivity for travellers.

Meanwhile, Airbus projected that the aviation industry in Africa is expected to witness a 4.1 percent overall growth in air traffic over the next 20 years, necessitating an estimated 1,180 new aircraft by 2043. The study further anticipates that the sustained expansion of the aviation sector in Africa will lead to a 3.3 percent real GDP growth for the continent, surpassing the global average of 2.6 percent.

The data from Airbus’ Global Services Forecast also supports the predicted growth in Africa’s aviation sector, with an estimated 15,000 more pilots, 20,000 technicians, and 24,000 cabin crew required to cater to the expected surge in air travel demand over the next two decades.