Africa bleeds from two Sudans’ internal wars (1)

SUDAN WAS ONE UNTIL July 2011. The split into two had a long history behind it. The bitter wars and the inevitable division into the two countries that still retain the same name were a part of the history of these two Sudans. Although the new country is called South Sudan, it seems like it is beset with the carryover of some burdens from the old Sudan. The greater Sudan, left after the emergence of the new one, is still grappling with its own burden as lasting peace seems elusive. South Sudan is already caught in a similar web. Before South Sudan became a separate country, the old Sudan has been embroiled in crisis and civil strife. It was no stranger to wars.

The boiling over of the crisis that got the attention of the wider world about two decades ago involved the great slaughter at Darfur in 2003 under the despotic Omar al-Bashir. His seed of discord and confusion that legitimised and transformed the rag-tag armed bandit Janjaweed into uniformed paramilitary organ has grown and is currently bearing bad fruits. After nearly two decades of lull, the same paramilitary formation that is now an elitist band of armed men — known as Rapid Support Forces (RSF) — has got some strong backing to challenge Sudan’s army-led government. Nearly two years on, since April 15, 2023, the struggle for supremacy and control of the central government has thrown Sudan into chaos as the disagreement between the army and the RSF has degenerated into full scale war.

What is now a protracted civil war between two major rivals began during Ramadan on April, 15, 2023, as an escalating power struggle between the two main factions of the military. It bore the semblance of a traditional coup attempt as members of the RSF paramilitary group seized the Presidential Palace and other key transport and communication infrastructure across the city of Khartoum. It marked the crescendo of the conflict over power between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Earlier on, former President Omar al-Bashir — in an attempt to coup-proof his dictatorial regime — elevated the Janjaweed into the RSF. This armed group — used for unleashing terror in Darfur — was made up of his long-time henchmen, now a paramilitary force, capable of protecting the president from his closest rivals. 

The military and paramilitary forces were hailed as heroes after the toppling of al-Bashir and the overthrowing of his government in 2019. Conspiring with Army Chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the same RSF, headed by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known more as Hemedti, turned on al-Bashir, eventually ending his 30 years in power, replacing it with a military junta. Both al-Burhan and Dagalo eventually shattered the hopes of an orderly, democratic transition. The RSF, after a sudden rise to power, became intractable and sparked off the new war of attrition that has practically engulfed the whole of Sudan and had given rise to several militia and rebel groups, as well as with their foreign backers who have expanded the scope and coverage of terror. Unfortunately, none of these factions appears capable of restoring control over the entire territory of Sudan.

Deposed President al-Bashir did no small damage to Sudan. To sustain his reign, al-Bashir latched on, and exploited the internal divide between Sudan’s wealthier northern region, mostly Arab and Muslim, and its less-developed Christian or animist-dominated southern region. Although this divide was at the center of two civil wars, the second one, which happened under al-Bashir, precipitated Sudan’s split into two states in 2011. This second Sudanese civil war spanning from 1983 to 2005 was not just brutal, it was used to commit a lot of atrocities and crimes which were well-documented throughout the conflict. Apart from widespread famine, an estimated two million people were killed. With the formal declaration in July 2011 of Sudan’s southern territory as a new state of the Republic of South Sudan, the territory under al-Bashir shrank.

He had enjoyed 30 years of misrule since he seized power in a 1989 coup following his service in the Egyptian military. Bashir presided over most of the civil war, the secession of South Sudan, and the conflict in Darfur. The outbreak of the Darfur war in 2003 was later condemned by the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the U.S. State Department as a genocide against non-Arab populations such as the Fur, Zaghawa, and Masalit peoples in western Sudan. His oppressive regime involved restrictive interpretation of sharia, the use of private militias to fight his battles and morality police to enforce his decrees, persecution of Christianity, Sunni apostasy, Shiism, and other minority religious groups. His oppressive activities were far-reaching, in impact, until he began to face increasing popular protests calling for democracy, access to basic services, and a new system of governance. The people’s revolution that culminated in the April 2019 coup was jointly led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan of SAF and the RSF militia leader Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo.

Their claims to a return to civil rule — which could now be described as spurious — fell apart and  got messed up with what started on April 15, 2023, a civil war which has claimed no fewer than 15,000 lives and has displaced more than 8.2 million, giving rise to what has been described as the worst displacement crisis in the world. Among those displaced, nearly two million have fled to unstable areas in Chad, Ethiopia, South Sudan, Central African Republic (CAR), Egypt and Eritrea, while also overrunning refugee camps. Meanwhile, the fighting in Khartoum has not abated, with rising incidents of violence across the country, including in Darfur. Khamis Abakar, the governor of the province of West Darfur, was assassinated on June 15, 2023, after he accused the RSF of renewed genocidal attacks against minorities and was advocating for international intervention to protect civilians in Darfur. His killing marked an escalation as more than 68 villages were razed down with fire by militias in Darfur since fighting erupted in mid-April 2023 in what has been described as ethnic cleansing and war crimes. 

The current violence has been described by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNCHR), Filippo Grandi, as emblematic of the US-recognised genocide in Darfur that killed an estimated 300,000 people between 2003 and 2005, with the RSF  created from the Janjaweed militia, and funded by al-Bashir as the front liners in the offensive. The loosely coordinated Janjaweed got rewarded, was recognised and was formally organised under the banner of the RSF in 2013 as a border guard force with al-Bashir’s support. It was also a source of mercenaries for the Saudi coalition in the Yemeni war and a hired security force to repress popular uprisings. RSF leader Hemedti became one of Sudan’s wealthiest men by seizing control of gold mines, with the Bashir government’s blessing, during the RSF’s campaigns. Despite these and al-Bashir’s dependence on the RSF to protect him from coups and attempts on his life, the same RSF ultimately participated in the 2019 coup that toppled him. 

Although RSF worked alongside the SAF to establish a transitional government and a new constitution in its aftermath, the Transitional Sovereignty Council al-Burhan led with Hemedti as his deputy, with other military leaders and several civilians, did not last. Abdalla Hamdok, an economist and development expert with experience at various multilateral organisations, appointed to be prime minister, was initially disgraced out of office on October 25 2021, reinstated on November 21 of the same year and he voluntarily resigned on January 2, 2022 after unsuccessfully attempting to mitigate Sudan’s extreme economic turmoil and project stability to the outside world. The SAF and RSF orchestrated the coup against Hamdok as they got him to concede governing powers to Burhan, Hemedti and the rest of the security sector who then suspended the constitution. Sudan’s protesters were not satisfied with the terms of his reinstatement. Sudan thus lost the support of international institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund on debt relief.  

With al-Burhan operating as de facto head of state and Hemedti with him at the helm of the government, the  democratic transition was doomed to failure. The power struggle between Burhan’s SAF and Hemedti’s RSF intensified, stalling the country’s transition efforts. On April 15, Khartoum was shaken by explosions and heavy gunfire, with the SAF and RSF leadership accusing one another of firing first. The Wagner Group’s involvement and foreign military influence, notably from the United Arab Emirates, risk deepening the rivalry at the core of Sudan’s crisis. Pressure from foreign governments and rights groups on the SAF and RSF to resume U.S.- and Saudi-led negotiations in late October 2023 has not succeeded in getting either side to agree to cease fighting while talks were ongoing. Previous negotiations have failed as the warring factions have not upheld any attempted ceasefire agreements. Humanitarian access remains a concern as the conflict has been “spiraling out of control”. The UN Security Council (UNSC) resolution, passed on March 8, 2024, calling for an immediate cessation of violence in Sudan, failed to achieve the purpose. The SAF-masterminded suspension of contact with the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) — an East African regional bloc attempting to establish an alternative forum for mediation — made matters worse as refugees continued to flee the country and the health system collapsed, raising fears of disease outbreaks. With the instability of the surrounding region and the fact that Sudan borders other volatile countries such as the Central African Republic, Chad, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Libya, and South Sudan, the situation is made more complicated. Now, what is the fate and future of the greater Sudan in the hands of two men struggling for control of the country?

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