Africa’s Gen-Z population adrift while leadership falters

PROJECTIONS ABOUT AFRICA’S projected population in 2030 and 2050 are commonly cited among those doing things or writing on Africa’s statistics. It is sometimes tempting to take those projections on the face value and simply run with them. Such projections have some advantages such as providing some ideas – no matter how vague – about the future. They can aid planning and policy directions in some ways. They have some disadvantages, however; they are fraught with some inaccuracies as many variables are clearly missing.

Africa’s projected population in the next two decades may actually turn out differently from what is commonly projected. The ominous signs are there, but appear to be ignored or glossed over. While the projected population growth rates – on a linear scale – could point at an increase in future population, the realities when the time comes could be otherwise. And the pointers to those realities are here at present. Africa presently boasts of youth bulge as the population pyramid seems to show the youthful population as unusually higher than those of the older people.

Many endogenous or exogenous factors – or a combination of both – can alter the reality upon which a future is predicted. A fact that should not be missed is that of China’s example. Until recently when it appears to have been overtaken by India, China’s population was the highest globally. The Chinese one-child policy, meant to reduce the population growth to manageable levels, ultimately resulted in some unintended consequences. One of them was the reduction of the female population, which arose from deliberate decisions of individuals and families on the choice of child’s gender. It turned out that there was a preponderance of desire for the male child. This led to unprecedented scale of abortions in cases where pregnancy scans show female foetuses.

Over time, children born within the period of the one-child policy, growing into adulthood and age of childbearing, were faced with the challenge of more males than females. Chinese men had to resort to going into neighbouring countries with near similarities in tribes and cultures to find wives. Even when the Chinese authorities ended the one-child policy and relaxed the rules to allow two children per family, other issues cropped up. Many young men and women of marriage and childbearing age choose not to have more than one child, and some prefer not to have any child at all. Their reasons are mostly economic, as it is very expensive in China to see a child through elementary school to tertiary education. Thus, the policy deliberately put in place nearly 50 years ago by the Chinese authorities remains sustained by the very population of the grown up children born under that circumstance. And so, the population of China is set to decline precipitously, or perhaps sharply, over the next two decades as a result of the choices now made by individuals and families.

In Africa, the shift in population will be more of a result of official indecision or lack of decisiveness in tackling population issues. Hardly is there any country in Africa where the future population issue is on the front burner of public policy; neither in South Africa, nor in Egypt, nor in Kenya, nor yet in Nigeria. But government officials, corporate establishments and many non-governmental organisations copiously quote Africa’s youthful population figures, talking ever so eloquently about the future size of Africa’s population. Seemingly random, unrelated, inconsequential events that call for concerns are hardly considered as important while dealing with the future population issues while emphasis appears more on those embarking on desperate journeys to Europe through the Libyan desert, many of whom end up being deported on arrival at their destination.

Questions on why many privileged African youth that managed to legitimately live in Europe, North America or elsewhere may never return to live in Africa are not a subject of attention and deliberate discussions for now. A Cameroonian footballer that found a home in France would say he is a Frenchman and not a Cameroonian for the simple fact that the Cameroonian football governing body refused to enlist him when he wanted to play for his country, but was accepted by France. A Nigerian academic in Alabama, US, would say he would come to Nigeria to do similar things he does for the US government if Nigeria was willing to have him back, that is after all the education he has enjoyed freely, paid for by the Nigerian authorities. The investment on him up to the university level has turned out to become a gain for the US. And these are just microcosms.

During the time of Olusegun Obasanjo as Nigerian civilian president, an initiative on Nigerians in the diaspora was launched with fanfare. At the onset, many Nigerians were excited and came, looking forward to coming home to invest. The diaspora conference held in Calabar, south-eastern Nigeria, drew crowds of professionals, experts, and expatriates. This writer was in attendance and saw how eager Nigerians abroad were to have a foothold at home. But, all that excitement has fizzled out over a period of more than a decade. The reason is simple: succeeding governments did not seem to see the merit. Although a government parastatal was created to oversee the relationships with Nigerians in the diaspora, the agency has become a mere government organ lacking in direction.

It is noteworthy that many Nigerians who were fervent about coming home have lost interest and may never return. Two real examples known to this writer will illustrate the point. A Nigerian automobile engineer trained in the US led a team to start an auto manufacturing plant in China. Eager to help his country, he has visited many times, even got introduced to a key government operative, but the same set of people who would gleefully spend millions of local currencies on foreign tours to study how things are done would not consider tapping into the wealth of knowledge of this Nigerian. Married to a Chinese professional, the chances that this auto engineer – or his children – will return to live in Nigeria appear slim.

Another Nigerian, a medic with specialisation in one of the delicate areas of the body, was once eager to attend a conference in New York during President Goodluck Jonathan’s visit. Excited about what looked promising, this expatriate began considering how to set up a specialist facility in Nigeria. The dream has been kept on hold for a decade now after a change of government sent scary signals, as readers about events in Nigeria were treated to horrendous stories of abductions and indiscriminate killings. Opting out of the academic community, this professional has set up the facility somewhere in the US. Now nearing 70, and may soon retire from active medical practice, Nigeria is about to lose that specialist permanently. And, interestingly, this specialist showed this writer of a Nigerian former vice president that visits the US solely to receive medical attention from this same professional. Guess how many Nigerians in the diaspora are visited by Nigerians in public offices for one intervention or another at huge costs: something that could have been easily provided locally if these professionals were to find the Nigerian operating environment conducive.

Attractions for an outward drift of the younger populations to countries outside Africa are many and varied. The temperate weather in Europe and North America is one of them. We hear Africans saying they are travelling for summer in Europe and the US.  This, presumably, was because of relatively milder weather in those places. Recent climate events have shown that things are changing and the temperate region’s summer period may no longer remain as mild as it used to be. In the past couple of years, the summer temperatures in the temperate regions of Europe, Americas and Asia have become unusually high that many people now suffer from heat stroke. During this period, the differences between the summer temperatures in the temperate and tropical regions are narrowing down.

Economy is one major driver of net emigration from Africa. Majority of migrants are economic refugees, seeking what is generally regarded as “greener pastures.” They care less about the economic situation of other countries as long as they are able to move out of their home countries in Africa. Many therefore use illegal means of getting into other countries, including by unsafe means such as stowing away within the rudder compartment of a ship, like in the case of those Nigerians rescued after two weeks in Brazil some time ago. Then, those crossing extensive hot and dry deserts in desperate bid to escape harsh economic situations in their countries, while in search of elusive better life.

Added to this economic consideration is the fact that the fourth industrial revolution has wiped off many job options and opportunities. It is thus more difficult for many young people to find jobs. Many of those trained in particular fields – academic or technical – are finding out, to their dismay and shock, that they cannot practise what they have learnt in school as modern technology has taken over their space. They are therefore forced to learn new things for survival. Many of them find menial jobs to do out there in the diaspora – jobs that remain yet to be automated and may soon be lost if automation takes over. Improved medical facilities and expertise are additional reasons people emigrate, some for the short term in search of remedies and some permanently. Food is essential. Apart from the quantum of food imported – for instance, wheat from Ukraine and elsewhere – into Africa, there is a decline in locally produced food as most young Africans prefer urban lifestyles and less of them are involved in farming, just as the population of active farmers is declining, while mechanisation is not replacing manual and subsistence farming fast enough.

Because African political leaders are not taking quality time, thought and policy interventions to contextualise the future population issues, the foregoing and many more factors will continue to force many Africans away from Africa in the future. The vibrant and productive segment of the population will continue to be more useful outside Africa and, for this reason, will continue to be of high demand outside Africa. With no clear, coherent and sustainable policy to keep them in Africa, they will continue to leave, especially those whose mobility is informed by their professions. With worsening economies in African countries, the tendencies for many of the young ones to attract their families remain high. Incompetent governments, corrupt politicians, laid-back bureaucratic civil service and complicit non-state actors will continue to keep things low, leading to increasing motivation of people to emigrate.

African political leaders today are faced with a choice: to do or not to do. If they choose to take the population issue seriously, then the generational issues and the problem of massive migration should actually be their top policy priority. Population dynamics change with time, they are never stable, just as they are affected by many confounding variables. The projection of African population becoming the largest of all in the future may prove wrong, especially if – as a result of continued bad leadership – social and economic indices continue to fall and people remain overwhelmed by impediments such as various personal diseases, epidemics, wars, climate events, poor infrastructure, food insecurity, plummeting economies and crisis-induced mental challenges. The growing population may experience unprecedented decline, contrary to pundits’ projections and Africa’s touted projected population growth may actually turn out to be stagnant or even a decline.

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