Africa’s prospects in new Trump’s era (2)

CONSEQUENCES OF the US elections have extensive impacts of both local and global dimensions. These are already manifesting in the aftermath of the recently concluded presidential election. While the losers in the November 5 election within the US have been smarting over the shock of defeat and they must have started to figure out how to cope with the impact of their electoral losses as well as how to adjust to their defeat and how to reposition themselves to win in the next midterm elections, many countries and regional bodies are also bracing for impacts of Trump 2.0. In other words, it seems like a ‘great reset’ in diplomatic relations with the US from January 20 is in the making. Signals of what to expect were already beginning to show in anticipation of election’s outcome and afterwards as the outcome has sent shockwaves all across the world on diplomacy and economy. In the US, the prospects of Donald Trump’s electoral victory immediately unleashed a massive rally in the dollar, drove stocks to record highs and boosted the bond yields as Bitcoin market also hit an all-time high, following Trump’s election promise to prioritise the volatile crypto currency. Much more, the investors have been comforted by a clear election result and are anticipating tax cuts and deregulation from a second Trump administration.

The European Union, an economic bloc and US ally, has been particularly concerned, expressing veiled anxiety and cautious optimism following the election outcome. The EU’s basis of concerns is not hidden. From energy and trade to finance and defence, the impact on EU foreign policy under Trump’s second presidency became obvious. The US is a core member of many multilateral organisations such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), the  World Bank, International Monetary Fund, the United Nations (UN) and its subsidiary organisations such as the World Health Organisation (WHO), Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) and the World Trade Organisation (WTO), among many others where changes are also anticipated, driven by American interests. Such interests, under Trump’s “America First” policy are expected to jolt some countries as well as regional groupings. The establishment of a new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) should send clear messages beyond local American community to the international space as his “spend less, win more” approach to government might mean a drastic cut on foreign aid to developing countries as well as traditional partners, especially European political and economic bloc’s as trade flows and configuration of their relationships might be tweaked in some ways.

For instance, two days after the US presidential elections’ final winner was declared, Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission President, announced that she has proposed to the US President-elect Donald Trump that the US could supply more liquefied natural gas (LNG) to the European Union (EU). According to her, the EU could consider replacing Russian LNG imports with those from the US, “which is cheaper for us.” In a phone call with US President-elect Donald Trump, she was quoted as saying “we still get a whole lot of LNG via Russia, from Russia.” Similar adjustment is not only expected in Africa’s response to Trump’s return as US president, it is more reasonable and will hopefully be more productive. Apart from potential benefits for Africa from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) earlier referred to in this series, African leaders are expected to understand the deeper implications of America First policy and the new DOGE for the continent.

Two remarkable areas that must now engage the attention of African political leaders for appropriate and productive policy interventions are foreign aid, especially from the US, and what some might refer to as seeming isolationism in which case the US will stay away from entanglement in conflicts elsewhere. Efforts on transforming Africa from aid dependence to trade dependence are yet to yield any remarkable benefit for the continent. A sudden reduction or total elimination of US aid will jolt some African countries as they struggle to adjust. This is no defence, or argument in favour, of continued aid dependency. Rather, it is aimed at portraying the stark reality that those countries will face in the immediate and long term. The planned mass deportation of and greater restrictions on illegal immigrants will reverberate widely on Africans. Again, this is no defence of illegal immigration. Rather, it is to prepare the minds of African countries to brace for impact. So, if there are areas for the African Union to quickly respond in conjunction with all 55 countries, these two areas are among those that are of paramount importance, requiring urgent attention. Both will demand greater transparency, efficiency and best practices in governance and management of state affairs for the greater good of most Africans.

The leading cause of emigration by Africans — particularly the one desperately driving them to Europe and North America — is bad leadership. Inept, incompetent and visionless leadership is the leading cause of poor economy and toxic polity that have turned many Africans into asylum seekers, political and economic refugees abroad. In the illegal immigration records of the US, the Migration Policy Institute (MPI), in 2022, estimated that as of 2019, approximately 261,000 (two per cent) of the 11 million unauthorised immigrants in the US were from sub-Saharan Africa. How much more would have been the figure from Africa to nearby EU? As wars are tearing some African countries apart internally, external support to help affected countries overcome hostilities might be minimal. Without any remarkable US intervention, Sudan’s war may be protracted. Bilateral engagement with the US by African countries on individual basis might not be to any significant benefit to most of them. Out of 55 sovereign entities in Africa, less than 20 can embark on direct bilateral trade relationship. Most others will have to work as a group. This is where the AU becomes very relevant as a platform for multilateral interface and means of strength. Even then, the AU has to figure out real quick what areas would be of mutual benefit to the US and Africa under Trump’s new government.

The Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) agenda, expected to be implemented by the Health and Human Services Secretary-designate, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., might present some great opportunities for Africa in the US food market, particularly in the supply of unprecedented quantity of fresh tropical fruits. The Department of Health and Human Services, which oversees 11 agencies — including the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) — might increase emphasis on unprocessed natural foods for the benefit of American consumers. This might open a floodgate for the importation of certified fruits and organic foods from Africa even though Asians have made a big inroad into the US market in this area long ago. But as demands increase with greater awareness by health-conscious consumers, more imports will be encouraged. This should provide greater opportunities for Africans seeking market outlets in the US. This area alone could boost the prospects of revision and extension of the life span of AGOA. With good leadership, the economies of many African countries will improve well enough to attract many living abroad back home through such prospects.

Reference to annual figures of remittances from Africans in the diaspora is a typical escapist strategy used by any African government. Such remittances, which are purely private transfer of personal earnings back home, are not — and should not be treated as— official foreign earnings attributable to any government’s positive achievement. In essence, remittances could pale into insignificance for Africa if more Africans who are desperate about traveling abroad are profitably engaged at home and contribute to their countries’ economies through their productive activities. Many returnees could play active part in the trade opportunities provided by a revised AGOA platform. Beyond private benefits, the various participating countries could reap enormous official gains from foreign exchange.

Again, rather than listening to the media that has confused most people and helped to form only negative opinions about Trump and prospects of his election, it is now time to look more objectively and dispassionately about what benefits Africa stands to gain from the US in the next four years of his return to the White House. From avocado exports coming from Kenya, to South Africa, Tanzania, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Ethiopia to bananas from Cameroon, Angola, Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan, Africa’s export market could diversify beyond Europe as greater market penetration into the US could be achieved. Although Nigeria is West Africa’s largest producer of pineapple, followed by Ghana, Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, and Togo, the countries still have a long way to go in meeting the increasing demand for fresh pineapple and pineapple products in international markets, of which both producing countries and the US could mutually benefit. Leaders of various African countries and the continental regional bloc are expected to begin to make deliberate and frantic efforts to engage with the US agencies involved in inspections, regulations and approvals of imported foods. It therefore means Africa countries have to step up in the areas of quality assurance and standards. Early efforts in upgrading, revisions and greater emphasis on global best practices are therefore encouraged. The US might show greater interests in other areas in Africa under Trump’s government through food diplomacy. The earlier such engagements commence, the better.