Agric. sector slows in 2022 as analysts present tough 2023 outlook

By Onome Amuge 

2022 has been described by agriculture analysts as a challenging year for many farmers, stakeholders,consumers in the sector who have been subjected to torrents of headwinds in terms of rising cost of production,food inflation and global market forces.

Factors such as the lingering Russia-Ukraine war,insecurity, and the  recent flood which destroyed over 500,000 hectares of farmlands have also been indicated as the clogs in the wheel of the sector’s development, leading to projections of a food crisis in 2023.

Though the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in its latest gross domestic product (GDP) report showed that Nigeria’s agriculture sector grew by 1.20 per cent year-on-year in real terms for the second quarter of 2022, the sector declined by 0.10 percentage points from the corresponding period of 2021.

Capital importation into Nigeria’s agriculture also suffered a sharp decline in the first quarter of 2022 as the value of foreign investment in the sector tumbled 99.23 per cent from $237.83m recorded in the fourth quarter of 2021 to $1.76 million, according to the latest Nigerian Capital Importation report for Q1 2022 released by the National Bureau of Statistics  (NBS). Foreign investment flow into the sector also shrunk 64.64 per cent year- on-year from $66.40 million in the first quarter of 2021.

The food inflation rate also dealt a heavy blow on consumers, rising to 24.13 per cent in November from 23.72 per cent recorded the previous month as prices of staples including bread and cereals,fish, oil and fat, potatoes,yam and other tubers as well as other food products increased.

The Nigeria Governors’ Forum (NGF), in its assessment of the agriculture sector,described the 2022 farming season as a ‘serious nightmare’ for most farmers in the country, a factor largely attributed to the excessive rainfall and flooding which destroyed crops and livestock worth billions of naira, according to estimated data.

The NGF, in a statement titled, ‘Nigerian Agriculture In 2022: The Ups And Downs,’ and signed by Abba Gambo, the senior agricultural adviser to the forum, noted that the disaster dampened the hope of thousands of farmers expecting bountiful harvests prior to the flood.

“The rains came much more than NiMET’s forecasts, leading to serious flooding across the country, affecting 34 out of the 36 states, with the FCT least affected. The floods led to massive loss of lives, livestock, properties and farmlands. The much-expected harvest in most states became a mirage. Jigawa State, being the most affected,” the statement read.

It further emphasised that the flooding resulted in a hike of food prices as a bag of millet selling for N8,000 rose to N35,000, sorghum rose from N12,000.00 to N40,000, rice rose to N45,000.00 per 50kg, even for the locally-produced and milled varieties.

According to the statement, 2022 was a tough year for the agricultural sector, despite contributing 23 per cent to the national GDP in the third quarter of the year, a figure which surpassed contributions recorded in oil and gas, manufacturing and telecommunications sectors.

Tunde Banjoke,managing director of Bofams Limited, in an interview with Corporate Farmers Media,monitored by Business a.m., noted that the agric sector began on a promising note in 2022.

“We all came into the year excited and very optimistic about several things because we were beginning to recover from the supply chain of disruption caused by the Covid and border closure. But a lot of things that we thought would go the way we had planned for some reasons, didn’t go as planned and the numbers were messed up. The projection for the agric sector was that the growth would rise between three to six percent but the growth was just about 1.61 to 7 percent,” he noted.

Banjoke attributed the slow growth in the sector to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war which led to a rise in cost of production for Nigerian farmers. He gave an instance of the rise in diesel which had an adverse cost impact in operation of farm machineries such as tractors and harvesters.

He also identified the recent flooding and insecurity issues,particularly in the northern region as major factors that wreaked havoc on the agriculture sector.

In its 2023 outlook for Nigeria’s agriculture sector, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted that food prices/ risks would rise during the year due to recent floods which affected agriculture output. It further said that despite Nigeria’s limited direct exposures, the war in Ukraine was affecting the nation through higher domestic food prices as well as hike in fertiliser prices.

For agriculture to continue playing a significant role in employment and ensure food security,the financial agency of the United Nations recommended boosting production and yields through improved input usage,better storage facilities and more coordinated policy support across government agencies.

On his part,Mohammed Ishiyaku Faguji, the executive director, Institute of Agricultural Research (IAR) Zaria, predicted shortage of food in 2023.

Faguyi explained that the shortage is due to poor harvest following the severe flood which  ravaged some food producing parts of the northern states.

The agriculture expert observed that the situation would be aggravated by the fact that over 30 per cent of agricultural investments in states such as Jigawa, Kogi, Kebbi and some parts of Kano and Bauchi were lost to the flood.

He also explained that the situation would naturally translate into shortage in the annual harvest of grains and other agricultural produce which will consequently result in short supply of food items.

Dwelling further on the situation, he said: “If the demand supersedes the supply, the internal supply of food items will be affected grossly as a result of the flood disaster which will surely cause rise in the prices of food commodities. And the rise in the price of food items would be different from the earlier ones Nigerians were complaining about.

“Food items, like any other commodity, have the right to increase in value because people invest money to produce the food and wherever there is investment, there is a right to make profit out of the investment.”

Fajuyi,therefore, advised the federal government to undertake a carefully designed intervention programme to ensure that the food supply system maintains its natural equilibrium while assisting the farmers with farm inputs against the upcoming dry season.

He suggested that experts should be invited immediately to assess the flood situation in the country to recommend professional intervention needed from within and outside the country.

He also advised that  farmers should be given the needed support to utilise the receding moisture to plant appropriate crops that can be grown using the receding moisture.