An anecdotal change of guards

BY NICHOLAS ALLO 

The phrase ‘change of guards’ is derived from a military practice where sentries responsible for the safety and security of a collective group of individuals and resources, hopefully of like minds, are swapped around by a fresh set of hands after their given period of responsibility expires. This phrase has found its way into everyday conversations and more importantly, is commonly used when referring to politics and the swapping around of elected public office holders. In Nigeria, however, when participating in or referring to politically motivated conversations, this phrase, a change of guards, offers its audience multiple interpretations.

The first Nigerian interpretation of this phrase implies the usual change of publicly elected officers, by way of the ballot box, where politicians vie for political office. The next interpretation, however, is where the individual vying for public office is categorised based on their date of birth being pre or post Nigerian independence, October 1st 1960. When presidential candidates who have held office in Nigeria are closely examined, during this our 2nd democratic dispensation, following after the last reported history of military governance in the country, they have all been pre-independence candidates – they participated or were active during Nigeria’s transition from colonial rule to self-determination.

However, Nigeria’s 2023 presidential election presents the prospect of a doubled-up change of guards – change of elected persons and parties as well as a change in the historic trend of electing or in the ‘repackaging’ of old candidates, as candidates with fresh ideas for a generation many of them are grossly disconnected from. So, it is quite understandable why an audio sound bite intended to discredit younger candidates vying for political office, like the Obi/Datti candidacy and applies to Sowore as well, suggesting all their constituents were social media based with no means of voting, is coming back to haunt its purveyors. I suspect the widely discussed and unfortunate EndSARS incident at the Lekki toll gate, preceding this 2023 election, really charged up the polity. It proved a formidable catalyst for young voters to come out in unprecedented numbers, registering to vote and also co-creating amongst themselves, jingles, skits and awareness information or campaigns that can trigger a seemingly relentless electoral tsunami that many pundits are anticipating but all pre independence candidates hope will not become their reality, come Feb 25th 2023 and beyond.

This tsunami, with the way things look, proposes to wipe out all the said ‘structures’ that these pre-independence candidates boasted would give them an upper hand during this presidential election season. There are also very many boisterous debates on politics that never existed before, with many of the contributors referring to the age difference in the candidates being fielded. There have also been references to the health status as well, which would not be in the favour of the pre-independence candidates. However, it appears several members of this old guard are hoping elements of their near obliterated political structures will prove a saving grace for them in the coming week. Will it? It seems difficult to immediately forecast in spite of all indicators, following an obliteration of the old guards’ structures that it will make the new guards, the preferred favourites with each passing day.

It may be said that the final nail for an anecdotal coffin of the old guard was knocked in when fuel price hikes and scarcity of funds, following our currency change, occurred. Some parties have begun to celebrate, whilst others are watching with caution. But one factor remains true – politics in Nigeria, post 2023, will never be the same again. To whomever wins, they have a lot of work to do, as do we the Nigerian populace. So, we hope the best person for the job wins. There’s a lot of work for us all to do, to rebuild our battered nation. So, let’s truly have a change of guards!

• Dr Allo, is a director at Visual Earth, a UK-based, sustainability-driven consultancy with an emerging market focus.