Analysts fear economic losses on INEC rescheduling of elections

Nigeria’s 2023 general elections that began with the now disputed presidential and national assembly elections and which were to move to the gubernatorial and state  assembly elections, suffered a little setback when, initially scheduled for  March 11, 2023, were postponed to March 18 by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), citing logistic issues stemming from its lack of time to carry out the reconfiguration of the bimodal voter registration system (BVAS) used for the first leg of the elections.

Now, analysts are saying that, though the second leg of the elections was shifted by a week, the abrupt decision by the electoral umpire has far reaching consequences that could result in economic losses and adverse cost implications for Africa’s largest economy.

The postponement followed a ruling by the Court of Appeal in Abuja, sitting as the Presidential Election Petition Tribunal (PEPT), that granted INEC the right to reconfigure the BVAS, backed by the commission’s statement that it will need five working days to reconfigure BVAS used in the 176,974 polling units where voting will take place for the election.

INEC, in defence of the postponement, explained that it was to make for adequate timing to reconfigure the BVAS ahead of the governorship and state assembly polls.

Festus Okoye, a national commissioner and chairman, information and voter education committee, in a statement, said the commission needed time for the reconfiguration of the BVAS utilised for the presidential election held on February 25, 2023.

“Having been used for the Presidential and National Assembly elections on 25th February 2023, it is necessary to reconfigure the BVAS for activation on the date of the governorship and State Assembly elections.

“While the ruling of the Tribunal makes it possible for the Commission to commence the preparation of the BVAS for the Governorship and State Assembly elections, it has come far too late for the reconfiguration to be concluded,” the statement read.

Incidentally, this is not the first time INEC would postpone an election as similar occurrences were recorded in 2015 when Attahiru Jega, the former INEC chairman announced the postponement of general election polls by six weeks, citing insecurity. In 2019, Mahmood Yakubu, who is also the current INEC chairman, announced the postponement of the presidential election less than 24 hours to the voting exercise.

Sam Amadi, director, Abuja School of Social and Political Thoughts (ASSPT), said the one-week extension of the 2023 governorship and State House of Assembly elections has a disproportionate impact on the electoral candidates.

According to Amadi, one week extension means that the political candidates and parties would be forced to source more money to extend media jingles and campaign activities to prevent being undermined by their opponents.

The political analyst reasoned that the situation would be unsettling to the candidates running on lean resources, and would result in candidates going to borrow money in order to fill the one-week gap.

Conversely, he noted that it is going to be an advantage for candidates who can mop up extra resources to intensify a one-week intense campaign to knock off the bounce of their competitors in areas they are weak.

“Those that are running on a limited purse will find it difficult and could probably hope that the impact they have made in the previous weeks will stand. They will also hope that those who still have enough funds for campaign activities will not create enough bounce to attract a significant number of voters that would make or mar their political ambitions,” he said.

On the expected turnout of voters in the forthcoming election, Amadi said: “With BVAS not delivering the result because of deliberate sidetracking, people will be less concerned. So we are going to see blow out numbers coming to vote. We might also see increases in some areas like Rivers and Lagos and other key battlegrounds  where people feel aggrieved and likely to take their revenge by coming out in large numbers to vote.”

On the whole, he opined that the election would record  less numbers than initially expected because people are really disappointed. He, however, pointed out that the turnout  is divided from state to state.

“In big battleground states, we might see the revenge of the aggrieved people who will come out to vote a second time around. Voters might be less concerned in other states about the outcome because of how INEC’s poor performance has further depleted trust in elections in Nigeria,” he added.

Socioeconomic research firm, SBM Intelligence, in its analysis of the economic impact of the election postponement, said it will inflict significant economic losses for the most populous black nation.

The organisation, in an article titled, “Election postponements, cost Nigeria dearly”, noted that INEC had a N355 billion budget for the 2023 elections, and putting off any aspect of the election until a later time indicates a staggering loss arising from the suspension of economic activities and movement restrictions.

SBM further stated that the development and the possible rerun of the controversial presidential polls could come at a greater economic and social cost, considering the effects of inflation and the variance of the Nigerian currency between 2019 and 2023.

According to the leading geopolitical intelligence platform, INEC’s efforts at ensuring a successful  election were not helped by the crippling cash shortage caused by the ill timed demonetisation programme, as well as fuel scarcity, which harmed trade and the economy at large. It added that the controversy around BVAS following the February 25 federal elections did not help either.

Despite the ethnic tensions that have built up towards the governorship campaign, especially in Lagos, the organisation hopes that Nigerians can cast their votes safely and securely.

“Nigeria has gone through a lot recently, and a rescheduled election is the last thing an already volatile polity and distressed economy needs, but it has happened. It might be only a week, and the reasoning may be legitimate, but the costs of this postponement may be paid in a fraught and delicate democratic transition,” SBM stated.

Paul Alaje, senior economist and partner with economic development research firm, SPM Professionals, said the election postponement will cost both time and financial resources for the Nigerian populace, especially the voters who are actively involved in the voting process.

He noted that the decision would lead to many economic disruptions and would see business appointments, flights, weddings, and other socio-economic activities and potential incomes being cancelled, leaving a lot of people unsettled over the next course of action to take.

Alaje, who spoke on a monitored television programme, noted that INEC had sufficient budget to carry out a proper and organised election without any form of delay, considering that its budget also made a provision of 8.89 percent of allocation as a financial stabiliser should a rerun between political parties arise.

The senior economist asserted that INEC by now should have partnered with private organisations within the logistic industry and created a synergy between the logistic companies in a way that logistic issues are handled professionally.

“I hope that in the coming elections, INEC will pre-qualify privately owned companies which will really save Nigeria from postponing elections on a logistic basis,” he said.

Alaje questioned the rationality  of giving 34.57 percent of over N3 billion for the acquisition and application of technology devices on the excuse that the country does not have the technology/resources to produce  some of the election devices.

According to him, some of these devices might have exceeded their usage limit or might have been retired or phased out before the next election period.

To this end, he said: “We need to understand that the world is not waiting for us. Nigeria must appreciate knowledge. We must encourage young people within the ICT space, within technology, for their apps and more importantly, their devices to be embraced by the government and this will send a lot of signals to the private sector. We cannot continue to use hard earned FX for importation of what could be produced in Nigeria.”

On what can be done to create a buffer for the economy following the election postponement, Alaje advised Nigerians on the need to consider having a Plan B during election periods to guard against uncertainties. He also encouraged the government  to provide some succour to the people such as transport logistics to aid  movement and so many other supports for Nigerians.