Cameroon in crisis as main opposition head dies, Biya uncertain for polls

BY BEN EGUZOZIE 

• Risk of over-indebtedness high in 2023 – AfDB
• Inflation rose 6.2% in 2022 above CEMAC’s 3% target
• Southern citizens’ self-determination struggle throwing refugees into Nigeria

Cameroon, Nigeria’s eastern neighbour could be in for more serious socio-economic and political crises before its next presidential and national elections in 2025, following the sudden demise of the country’s main opposition leader, Ni John Fru Ndi, at a time the incumbent President Paul Biya is ailing and so demented that he might not be fit enough to run as candidate of the ruling Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM). 

Fru Ndi, founder, chairman, and presidential candidate of the major opposition party, was longtime leader of Cameroon’s most influential opposition party, the Social Democratic Front (SDF) died on June 12 aged 82 after a protracted illness.

Prior to his death, Ndi was preparing to hold a convention of the party at which a new executive organ would be elected, seeing him step down as chairman of SDF. Internal wranglings within the party had held things back right to the point the party’s founding leader did not live to hand over power, possibly to a younger person.

Fru Ndi was reported to have won Cameroon’s 1992 presidential election before being robbed of his victory by incumbent dictator Biya and his ruling CPDM party. Ndi reigned as the main opposition leader in the country with strongholds in the mainly English-speaking southern regions of South West and North West. Both territories are former UN trust territories of British Southern Cameroons. 

Ndi’s fortunes dwindled with the outbreak of the Southern Cameroons struggle for self-determination which resulted in a bloody armed conflict with the military of the Republic of Cameroon.

Today, uncertainty pervades the country’s socio-economic and political landscape, especially the leadership of a country which has been highly mismanaged under the 40-year dictatorial rule of Biya, 90, who is today the world’s oldest president. Under Biya’s autocratic administration and economic mismanagement since November 1982, Cameroon faced heavy budget deficits, over-indebtedness which pushed it into the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF’s) Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) group in October 2000. 

Some development economists and political analysts posit that the key opposition party needs to quickly reorganise itself if it must prepare to challenge Biya’s ruling CPDM, which could just be bereft of leadership should the ailing president not be fit enough to run in the 2025 polls.

On the economic front, Cameroon is at a high risk of over-indebtedness, according to the African Development Bank (AfDB) in a 2022 Cameroon Economic Outlook, depicting recent macroeconomic and financial developments. “The banking and financial system is weakening due primarily to the nonperforming loans ratio (nearly 15%), as well as strong exposure to the outstanding debts of public enterprises, estimated at 478 billion Central African CFA francs in 2021, the AfDB report said.

With a GDP expected to reach $47.29 billion by the end of 2023, projected to trend around $49.37 billion in 2024 and $51.59 billion in 2025, according to econometric models by Trading Economics global macro models and analysts’ expectations, the AfDB said Cameroon’s real GDP growth slipped to 3.4% in 2022 from 3.6% in 2021 due mostly to continued investment and higher non oil activity. 

Also, Cameroon’s inflation rose to 6.2% in 2022 from 2.3% in 2021 above the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) target of 3%. AfDB said the increase can be attributed largely to higher import costs in Cameroon. 

Control of persistent inflation pressures in the CEMAC area led to tighter monetary policy by the Bank of Central African States (BEAC). The tender interest rate was raised twice, from 3.5% to 4.0% in March 2022 and to 4.5% in September 2022.

Additionally, the self-determination struggle by the southern English-speaking regions of Cameroon which has pitched the two regions against the government armed forces, has continued to spew swarming number of refugees into Nigeria, especially in Cross River State’s towns and communities of Obudu, Ogoja, Mbube, Ekajuk, Boki, Bashua, Abontakon, Ikom, Etung, and as far down south as New Bakassi, Ekpabuyo, and Calabar metropolis.

However, AfDB predicts that Cameroon’s real GDP is projected to marginally grow 4.2% in 2023 and 4.5% in 2024 due to the gradual improvement in the international economic context and higher national gas production and global commodity prices. Inflation might just decline gradually to 5.9% in 2023 and 3.3% in 2024, arising from continued tightening of monetary policy by the Bank of Central African States (BEAC). 

The budget deficit will also further narrow to 0.8% of GDP in 2023 and 0.6% in 2024 though the current account deficit will widen to 2.9% of GDP in 2023 and 3.1% in 2024. The country’s public debt will reach 45.8% of GDP in 2023. Possible headwinds include the effects of geopolitical tensions—notably Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has increased uncertainty around supply chains, most notably in the energy sector.

Also, AfDB’s report warns that Cameroon’s private sector’s contribution to green growth finance is vital. “An estimated $57.6 billion in climate finance is needed to achieve the objectives set for 2030. But over 2015–20, Cameroon mobilised only $162.4 million a year as part of its commitments under the Paris Agreement. Of the $380 million committed to climate finance, only 3% is from the private sector. The sector’s participation is thus one of the main challenges to implementing climate actions through climate finance instruments, such as green bonds and green climate funds. Cameroon could take advantage of its substantial natural capital to finance green growth. Reducing illicit trade and flows linked to the exploitation of natural resources as well as improved management could lead to higher revenue to finance green growth,” the pan-African multilateral development finance institution.