Chad seals France weakening grip on Sahel Africa

DOMINOS OF FRANCE in Africa are falling in quick succession. Clear signs of an end to Françafrique are becoming even bolder and more prominent in recent times. For the colonies in Africa the France grand assimilationist colonial policy is losing its relevance and appeal such that the sense of urgency in terminating it is becoming more fervent in more countries. Over the past six decades, countries earlier colonised by France remained partly colonised still after their formal declaration of independence as sovereign states as they remained tied to the apron strings of France. It was just a matter of time for the aim of France to assimilate and transform all Africans in “French” colonies into black French men and women to begin falling apart. It did not matter that France, in its pursuit of the assimilation goal, had to suffocate and  eliminate all African cultures and assimilate all Africans into French culture, including an extension to military relations. In West and Central Africa where France has earlier had an overweening presence, its influence has been steadily diminishing — the latest being in Chad. 

Unlike in the case of the British, the French colonial administration is better described as more ‘direct rule’  and an incomplete decolonisation to ensure France’s continued post-colonial influence in Africa. In so doing, France established formal defence agreements with many francophone countries in sub-Saharan Africa, allowing France to establish itself as a guarantor of stability and hegemony in the region. It was to assert political and economic influence within the affected areas. It took unusual events to begin the resistance against French influence in Africa. No fewer than 14 African countries have endured this influence until Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame decided to end the influence of France by changing its allegiance to the UK and the US after the 1994 Genocide suffered by Rwanda in which the role of France was questioned. In Mali, a change was underway. While the army and its allies initially allowed the civilians in power following the August 2020 coup led by Col. Assimi Goita, he directly took over power and put himself in charge many months later in 2021 after leading a second coup by dismissing the civilian leaders in Mali’s transitional government.

French forces have been active in Mali since 2013, on a mission to dislodge Islamic extremists from power. In 2022, the involuntary French military withdrawal from Mali was orchestrated and triggered by the Assimi Goita’s military government. At the time, France was probably under an illusion that it had other safe havens as the last contingent of French soldiers of the so-called Barkhane force present on Malian territory crossed into neighboring Niger. Before this relocation, France had about 4,300 troops in the Sahel region, including 2,400 in Mali. Burkina Faso followed in 2023 when, in January, it gave France one month to withdraw its troops as it ended a military accord that allowed French troops to fight within its territories. The same 2023, the withdrawal of some 1,400 French troops was demanded by Niger’s ruling generals shortly after they seized power at the end of July.

Now, it is the turn of Chad to evict about 1,000 French troops from its land. Although, geopolitically, the earlier three (Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger) belong to the Western regional bloc known as the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and Chad belongs to the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS), all the four belong to the Sahel region, sharing common security challenges. It could be that the decision of Chad to end the military cooperation with France might draw Chad closer to Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso, thus becoming a precursor to an expansion of the Alliance of Sahel States or Alliance des États du Sahel (AES) countries which — at inception — represented a major strategic shift in this decade by the withdrawal of its founding members from ECOWAS. It will not be surprising too if Chad declares an end to its membership of ECCAS if it finds AES as a good alternative. 

Nature abhors vacuum. Predictably, therefore, Chad may not be far from this direction as Russia, a common alternative, chosen by the three AES members, is already embraced by Chad, a country that now wants to fully assert its sovereignty after six decades of independence. Chad has been a key Western ally in the fight against armed Islamic militants in the region. But now, it is trying to redefine its strategic partnership, ending the historic French colonial roles in West and central Africa. In doing so, Chad has become the latest African nation to terminate its military cooperation with France. Hosting approximately 1,000 French soldiers, Chad represents one of the countries with France’s largest military presence on the continent. France may have seen the foreboding a bit earlier as it has responded that it took note of the decision taken by Chad and looks forward to implementing the pullout of the troops, according to its foreign ministry, noting that it has already started reconfiguring its African military presence for two years.

Just as the visiting Jean-Noël Barrot, French foreign minister, left the country, Chad declared on Thursday, — November 28 — an end to its security ties with Paris, shutting the door on its former military ally. The fact that the announcement came on the day Chad was celebrating its independence from France was quite instructive. Chadian foreign minister, Abderaman Koulamallah, said that “France is an essential partner, but it must now also consider that Chad has grown up. Chad has matured. Chad is a sovereign state.” French soldiers have been on the ground since colonial times, launching nuclear tests in Chad’s desert since the 1960s. Considering Chad’s pullout from the military alliance with France, many in the Sahel now question French ability to help stop violence in the Sahel despite the claims that the French troops were helping the Sahel countries in the fight against the armed groups.

The Sahel countries may justifiably have good reasons for turning their back on France. A thousand French soldiers are now being forced to discharge from Chad, following the pattern that started with Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. Unequivocal diplomatic actions laden with unmistakable signals and messages. Remarkably, the current leader of Chad is a military officer turned civilian president. Mahamat Déby whose father was killed in 2021 is now turning to Russia for security ties, lending more credence to the fact that, across much of the Sahel region of West Africa — and now Central Africa — allegiance seems to be shifting from West to East. For France, it should be unsettling that Chad, a key Western ally in the fight against Islamic militants, abruptly ended its defence cooperation pact with France. With Déby now transformed to a civilian leader in 2024, as the 7th President, following his victory in the May 6 presidential elections that followed a constitutional referendum held on December 17, 2023, his influence and legitimacy are expected to be stronger.

It is clear that Chad is not going back on its decision concerning ending the military ties with France and this may also serve as a warning sign that more of France’s dominos in Africa may fall anytime soon. In the past, Chad has cooperated closely with Western countries, particularly France, and is the last remaining country in the Sahel to host French troops. But now, it has set up a special commission to oversee the dismantling of the military agreement between Paris and N’Djamena. Although no final date for withdrawal has been set, the agreement states that the deadline for termination is six months from notification. In essence, French troops are expected to leave Chad, latest by the end of the first half of 2025. Given the antecedents in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, Russian mercenaries might be having a field day in Chad soon. Moreover, the diminishing influence of France on West and Central Africa might be expedited as more countries might become both determined and emboldened to ditch France. 

A gradual progression from military independence to economic independence is expected anytime soon. Francophone former French colonies are likely to double down on their demands to end the CFA currency which has effectively but indirectly tied them to the European Central Bank through France, a country that has abandoned its own currency, the Franc, since 2000 upon adoption of the euro as its national currency. As such demands grow and the pressure increases, France will have no alternative but to think of alternative paths to its economic prosperity beyond the old-fashioned and now jaded assimilation strategy that has served to its benefits for over 60 years. It looks like, slowly but steadily, the African countries under the French golden fetters are now beginning to break free. Without doing so, their future appears bleak. According to a 2018 Brookings publication, out of the 14 African countries currently considered off-track to achieve Sustainable Development Goal (SGD) 1, eight are members of the Francophonie. By 2030, one in three people living in extreme poverty — 167 million people — will inhabit an African Francophonie member state. Clearly, therefore, the path to future prosperity of French former colonies in Africa may not be found in their continued ties of assimilation under France. New paths may truly need to be explored. And, with Chad on board as the latest in a chain of countries reconsidering their ties with France, many more are expected to follow, not only in the severance of military ties but more importantly in the severance of the yoke of economic ties under CFA regime, with possible revision, modification or abolition of the monetary unions in the West and Central Africa, which — for these African countries — has been nothing but an ill wind that blows none of them any good while it has served to feather the nests of France for so long. It is time to free these African countries from France’s stranglehold.

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