Civil unrest as anathema to foreign direct investments

Civil unrest is fighting between different groups of people or causing mayhem by people living in the same community. Civil unrest includes violent protests. Losses caused by this fighting are usually not covered by insurance. Destructive protests are usually classified as civil unrest as protests are not meant to be destructive but peaceful. The constitutions of all civilised nations provide for the right of the people to peaceful protest. The right to peaceful protest is enshrined in the 1999 constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. Section 40 of the said constitution provides that: “Every person shall be entitled to assemble freely and associate with other persons and he may form or belong to any political party, trade union or any other association for the protection of his interests”. The only restriction on and derogation from peaceful assembly of people is in section 45 of the constitution.

Section 45 of the 1999 constitution states that: (1) “Nothing in sections 37, 38, 39, 40 and 41 of this constitution shall invalidate any law that is reasonably justifiable in a democratic society;  (i) in the interest of defence, public safety, public order, public morality or public health;…” This shows that the right of the citizens to protest ends where the rights of other citizens to defend their lives and properties, safety, orderliness in the society, public morality or public health begin. Since the criminal law of the nation proscribed arson, it will not be in the line of peaceful protest for anybody to set properties (private or public) like buildings, roads, bridges and vehicles on fire during protests. The acts of clamping down an economy or destroying properties are features of war and not peaceful protest which the constitution provides for. The constitution did not have looting of assets in mind during protests.

Protests are statements or actions expressing disapproval of, disagreement on or objection to something or development in the society other than to democratically elected government which the constitution (written or unwritten) states must be rejected in the polls. A feature of civil unrest is running down economic activities through clamping down on the economy. So, when protesters are blocking the roads with the aim of stopping people from carrying out their ‘day-to-day’ activities or pulling down structures or putting buildings on fire and taking law into their hands, they are at war and not protesting. On May 2, 2024, forty-five people were arrested after protesters and police clashed during a protest in south-east London (Peckham) over the planned transfer of asylum seekers to the Bibby Stockholm barge in Dorset, according to BBC News. Normal people do not resort to assault while protesting.

SARS (Special Anti-Robbery Squad) was a notorious unit of the Nigerian Police known for its long record of abuse against Nigerian citizens, especially the youths before October 11, 2020. It was on October 10, 2020, that the youths started a protest to end the oppression, extortion and victimisation of the citizens by SARS operatives. On October 11, 2020, Muhammed Adamu, then Inspector General of Police (IGP), announced that the Federal Special Anti-Robbery Squad and other tactical squads had been stopped from carrying out their operations, including traffic checks, “with immediate effect”. During the End-SARS protest of October 2020, there were economic losses amounting to over N200 billion ($486.40 million) due to physical damage, according to reports. Supermarkets were torched, shops looted, Lekki Toll Gate and part of Television Continental (TVC) were burnt and about 150 Lagos State buses, which were used for public transport, were burnt down. Over N400 billion ($972.80 million) were lost due to economic clampdown for ten days.

Foreign businesses like Shoprite, where groceries are sold, and Samsung and Games, where electronics are sold, were mainly the targets of looters and miscreants. The Circle Mall, Osapa at the Fifth Roundabout, Lekki, Lagos, accommodating the biggest Shoprite in Lagos, experienced serious vandalism and arson and has not been rehabilitated up till today. Nigeria’s growing economy depends more on foreign direct investment (FDI) for survival. Foreign investors have apathy for civil unrest in that they are always at a loss when this unrest occurs and their investments are affected. During one of the mayhem in Lagos State in 2023, a lorry full of yams was looted by ‘area boys’. Only God knows the condition of the owner of the yams today. Foreign investors carry out risk analysis before they establish business in any nation apart from measuring the purchasing power parity of the people of the country. At times they engage risk assessors to carry out the risk under PESTLES analysis.

PESTLES analysis is the assessment of the political, economic, social, technology, environmental, and security risks of the nation. Where a nation is under incessant civil unrest, the security risk will be high as the products of the foreign investors, either in stores, warehouses and in transit, can be looted or torched. Insurance premium for loss of goods and loss of income in countries with high security threats will be high and profit low. In a situation where there are alternative countries that the investors can invest in, the high security risk nations will lose the investment. 

Nigerians, as citizens of an oil producing country, are supposed to have high purchasing power parity if not for the high rate of corruption in the country and high rate of unemployment. Nigeria should be attractive to foreign investors except for the high security risks. All hands must, therefore, be on deck to prevent violent protests in the country to attract foreign investors into our business environment.

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