Crisis hotspots and Africa’s security (3)

Monthly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of February 1st – February 28th, 2022: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa – Strategic Intelligence

EAST AFRICAN REGION has come to live with the unsavoury experience of terrorism bred and exported to neighbouring countries within the region. Somalia has been particularly notorious as a breeding ground for this destabilising force. Nations sometimes intervene in the internal affairs of other nations on the basis of self-interest. Insecurity in neighbouring countries poses threats to any country’s internal security. This thinking probably motivated Ethiopia’s intervention in Somalia in the early days of home-grown terrorism that the latter was nurturing then. The invasion of Mogadishu in December 2006 by Ethiopia without resistance and the flushing out of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) was interpreted in ways that whipped up religious sentiments and sparked outrage in Somalia. ICU, a product of coalescence of loose association of eleven regional and clan-based Islamic sharia courts in Somalia, was formed in 2004, with origin in southern Somalia. As a result of the power vacuum that existed at the time, it was originally established to bring order and stability after the collapse of Mohamed Siad Barre’s government in 1991. On the surface, it seemed like it started out well, providing security and managing crime within the areas of operation. But it later made forays into attempts at state capture as the ICU – backed by al-Shabab militants – attempted to wrest control of Mogadishu after clashing with a coalition of warlords.

Ethiopia’s invasion was construed differently and through different prism of interpretation by the burgeoning terrorist population in Somalia. Sadly, Africa is now at the risk of avoidable wars with subtle religious undertones. Quite contrary to what many believe was the reason for the intervention, the extreme position adopted by those that metamorphosed into terrorists was a reaction that took deadlier turns. Earlier in 2006, Mogadishu, the country’s capital, was besieged and seized by Al-Shabaab and the ICU. This provided background reasons for fears of a spillover into neighbouring Ethiopia. Moreover, out of perceived necessity, the Somalia’s Transitional Federal Government (TFG) officially invited Ethiopian troops to clear the Al-Shabaab and ICU from the capital, the outcome of which ended up reinforcing what was attributed to as the genesis of radicalisation of Al-Shabaab. Ethiopia – a predominantly Christian Orthodox country – sent troops to Somalia, invaded Somalia and ousted the ICU from Mogadishu in December 2006 at the request of Somalia’s TNG. Much of the ICU fled to neighbouring countries while Al-Shabaab retreated to southern Somalia. From there, it began to organise guerrilla assaults, more like revenge mission, against the Ethiopian forces in forms of bombings and assassinations. Within this period, as some argue, Al-Shabaab adopted a more extreme ideological posture than the ICU, recommending a fundamentalist version of Islam as the group transformed into a full-fledged insurrection. In the process, it began to gain control over large parts of territory in central and southern Somalia.

Upon successfully launching a deadlier comeback in Somalia, the terrorists were emboldened and began to export their dastardly acts into the neighbouring countries. The calls by the ICU for jihad against Ethiopia and the group’s renewed territorial claims against both Ethiopia and Kenya were gaining traction. The number of members grew as new Islamist-nationalist fighters joined al-Shabaab, increasing membership from about 400 to thousands within two years, from 2006 to 2008. During this period, the group had established ties with al-Qaeda. In 2012, Al-Qaeda chief, Ayman Mohammed Rabie al-Zawahiri, announced Al-Shabaab’s affiliation with the jihadi network. Ayman al-Zawahiri, who was killed in July 31, 2022, was an Egyptian-born terrorist, and physician who served as the second emir of al-Qaeda. Al-Shabaab leaders openly commended terrorist networks and supported the unifying idea of Al-Shabaab’s opposition to the Western-backed government, according to Bronwyn Bruton of the Atlantic Council. A trend in some parts of the world – in the Middle East, Asia and Africa in particular – has been that of attempts to adopt Islamic religion as state religion or to foist religious ideologies on governments.  In such countries, it is common for extreme punishments to be carried out against even minor offences, unlike in Muslim countries where the governments are formally secular. Saudi Arabia, Iran, Brunei, Afghanistan, Indonesia, Sudan, Pakistan, Nigeria and Qatar are countries in which Islamic laws are officially applied. In practice, many ideals in such laws are actually counterproductive in modern state settings. Many religious beliefs held in absolutism don’t work in practical terms at the level of state governance of a country and some that have been enforced with iron hands over the years are currently being resisted by the citizens

The transition of Iran from a secular state to an Islamic one since 1979 has not been all smooth sailing. The authorities have had to deal with heavy hands in their enforcement of laws, to which there is increasing resistance by the populace. Recently, for instance, the practice of forcing women to wear headscarf has led to uprising and violent protests for upwards of six weeks, following the death of a young lady in the hands of law enforcers after she was apprehended for non-compliance. Tehran authorities have not yet been able to quell the riots. Countries such as Afghanistan, Sudan, Pakistan and Nigeria have been experiencing religious-related violence, insurgencies and terrorist attacks of various magnitudes and frequencies of occurrence, which have almost crippled their economies. Somali’s choice of same path has not augured well for the country since the ascendancy of Al-Shabaab, which has become a threat to Somalia and other countries within the East African region. Al-Shabaab has reportedly carried out series of attacks on neighbouring countries. The first transnational terrorist attack by Al-Shabaab in Uganda was on July 11, 2010, in which it carried out multiple suicide bombings against crowds watching a screening of the 2010 FIFA World Cup Final in Kampala, killing 74 people. The following month, the Somali-based Al-Qaeda-affiliated Islamist militant group Al-Shabaab issued a new threat against neighbouring Kenya. The group said it will continue its attacks in that country as long as Kenyan troops are in Somalia.

For Al-Shabaab, any continued presence of Kenyan troops on Somalia’s soil at the instance of Kenyan government is regarded as an “invasion” of a Muslim land and, in response, Al-Shabaab has vowed to continue to strike inside Kenya by targeting Kenyan towns and cities until Kenyan troops are out of Somalia. On September 21 to 24, 2013, Al-Shabab militants launched a multiday raid on a Nairobi mall, killing 67 people. It was the deadliest terrorist attack in Kenya in 15 years. The conflicting sentiments between armed terrorists and formal state authorities calling for intergovernmental support from neighbouring countries is a source of worry for regional peace and security as the Somalia-based Islamist insurgent group has continued to launch brazen terrorist attacks at home and abroad, reinforcing strategic regional setbacks in recent years.  As part of means of recruitment, according to a 2020 report, the group regularly forces civilians, including women and children, to enter its ranks. Other recruits reportedly join voluntarily, often for financial reasons, an indication of poverty-induced decision.  Terrorism economy and the economy based on Islamic extremism are both incompatible with modern states. Afghanistan’s Taliban provides an eloquent testimony to this, as a group that depends on huge illicit revenues from opium production, with an estimated $1.8 billion to $2.7 billion or about 12 to 14 percent of Afghanistan’s GDP in 2021 and likely to increase as opium production has increased under its watch since it took over power in August 2021.

Al-Shabaab’s ideal is set to perpetually plunge Somalia into an economic crisis that will further impoverish its people and pose a regional security threat beyond Somali’s borders as it depends on dangerous and unsustainable sources of revenues. A quote from one publication by the US Council on Foreign Relations described counterterrorism experts as saying that “Al-Shabab has benefited from several sources of income over the years, including other terrorist groups; piracy; kidnapping; and extortion of local businesses, farmers, and aid groups, among others. The Eritrean government has in the past been accused of financing the group, but it denied these claims.” In addition, Al-Shabaab has reportedly built up an extensive racketeering operation, with checkpoint taxation on illicitly traded charcoal bringing in millions of dollars per year despite a UN ban on Somali charcoal exports in place since 2012. According to reports, the group also profits from smuggling contraband sugar across the Kenyan border, a scheme in which Kenyan forces have been accused of involvement. The attraction to Islamic-extremist terrorism could therefore go beyond religion and could entail more of economic consideration in addition to state ambitions as the United Nations has reportedly said that, in 2019, Al-Shabab spent upward of $21 million on fighters, weapons, and intelligence, and that the group was enjoying sizable budgetary surpluses. That was a quarter of Somali national defence spending of $80 million during the same 2019. This means a handful of non-state actors are engaged in a lucrative venture that will keep attracting more people.

Border security remains under real threat in many African countries and – in this case – East Africa in particular. Al-Shabaab remains a present threat to the Eastern Africa region. Few months ago, in July, fighters from the militant group were contained and their attack was repelled by Ethiopian forces in the eastern part of the country after Somalia-based al-Shabaab entered from southwestern Somalia and targeted four border towns in Ethiopia’s Somali regional state known as Ogaden Region. Over the years, the United Nations regional peacekeeping force known as the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) has achieved only limited success in its efforts to support the TFG in its battle against Al-Shabaab. The survival of the Al-Shabaab has been an interesting story as it has developed highly effective tax, fundraising and payment systems for self-sustenance. It has proved that money is the life blood of terrorism. Like in other cases of terrorism, terrorists have reportedly used various methods for moving their money, including through use of the American financial system, as well as through informal channels  This calls for a meticulous process of “following the money” through the retail banking system since terrorism financing goes through formal channels, albeit often in disguise.  Denying terrorists the use of the formal banking sector will therefore help greatly in reducing terrorism.

But how sophisticated, transparent and uncompromised is the finance sector in Africa? Effective defeat of terrorism in Africa is both feasible and possible, but that would depend on an effective use of financial instruments that will keep the banking institutions under strict compliance. The telecommunications sector will also play a huge role in profiling, tracking and apprehending offenders. But much depends on political will as many state actors allegedly collaborate with the terrorists for personal gains. Attacks in and outside Somali are still on-going, and the region remains unsafe still. In August, more than 20 were reportedly killed in al-Qaeda-linked Al-Shabaab attack on a Mogadishu hotel. The potential for spread of these types of attacks into other countries outside the Eastern Africa remains a present threat. A lot is lost to these attacks in human and material terms and the continent of Africa is at great risk. As more and more attacks are successfully carried out, the influence of attackers widens and the security of the continent is jeopardised. Much needs to be done at the continental level to weaken and totally eliminate terrorism in Africa. Much of the economic gains made within countries can easily be neutralised by the losses inflicted by terrorism. Leaders must urgently rise up to this existential challenge now. Africa must be free of terrorism.

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