Economist sees emerging political order reshaping Nigeria’s future 

BY BEN EGUZOZIE

Nigeria elections 2023

• Reforms to engender democratic effectiveness

• Seeks direction articulated for diaspora investment

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• External, internal liquidity for exchange rate stability

• Non-partisan capability for elected persons 

With global and nationwide criticisms still assailing Nigeria’s conduct of the February 25 presidential and national legislative elections, and the governorship and state parliaments now put off till March 18, some political economy analysts have surmised there is a reshaping of Nigeria’s future along a new political order emerging.

Accordingly, a new political paradigm appears to be setting off on the horizon, creating a basis of how future polls would go in the country. This will equally throw up governance dynamics with attendant economic outcomes.

Ayo Teriba, an applied econometrics and monetary economist, drawing his thought line from what he labelled exceptions in the 2023 presidential elections, said the contest “eclipsed autocratic consensus, side-lining former military rulers and their influence (and) inter-ethnic empathy/cooperation forced compulsory rotation of power”.

Another difference in the election, according to Teriba, was “the decisiveness of democratic consensus bridge building leading, for the first time, to the crowning of a notable champion of the democratic struggle” – Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

However, not a few will strongly disagree with Teriba – as Tinubu’s announcement by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) as President-elect, has been globally red-flagged as highly flawed, with large scale irregularities, ranking below polling minimum standards, and marred by violence, especially in his (Tinubu) Lagos home state. Undoubtedly, his two main opponents –Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), and Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) have headed to court to challenge the results.

Teriba also indicated that the 2023 polls post as the first time in Nigeria’s democratic transition that a party will control the presidency and the parliament. “This and other outcomes should create new dynamics that would reshape Nigeria’s future. A retrospective assessment of the extent to which the legitimacy secured at elections have translated to effectiveness in delivering economic outcomes, provides the premise for evaluating how the key outcomes of the 2023 election could reshape Nigeria’s future,” he said. However, this can only come true if Tinubu is eventually sworn in as president in May; and some members of the legislature are not thrown out by the courts as having not won the polls.

1. Teriba went further to prescribe paths to democratic effectiveness for the incoming government. He prescribes that power should be exploited as the means to an end, as leaders of the democratic struggle are most likely to exhibit stronger sense of responsibility that should lead them to create the likes of the US-style Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) to boost the capability of the President to deliver on his mandate, and the US-style Joint Committees or the UK-style Select Committees (which are bi-cameral, bi-partisan parliamentary committees that have no legislation drafting responsibilities but are created to help the committee system get better grip on technical issues, on issues ranging from economy, to finance, technology, or national security) to boost the capability of legislators to deliver on their mandates.

1. “We should expect stronger democratic engagement between parties, parliament, president on the one hand, and between both president and parliament and the people on the other hand. These should ensure strong accountability that should ensure delivery of democratic dividends, firmly in control of both the presidency and the two chambers of the parliament; stronger sense of responsibility and stronger commitment to capability building; stronger democratic engagement between parties, parliament, president; between both president and parliament and the people; strong accountability that should ensure delivery of democratic dividends,” the economist advised.

2. On reform priorities for the new administration, the Economic Associates chief executive wants a sense of direction that comes from clear contemplation/articulation of a preferred future that provides a firm premise for the investment decisions of those outside the government or country; adequate external and internal liquidity thresholds that will underpin exchange rate stability, growth acceleration, and socio-political harmony; security of lives and livelihoods, and adequate supply of energy – fuel and power; far-reaching institutional reforms to ensure harmonious, responsible, predictable, accountable, responsive, lawful, and humane design, coordination and execution of fiscal, financial, macro-prudential, micro-prudential, monetary, and payments policies.”

Other suggested reform priorities are sectoral reforms: oil, gas, power, road, rail, air, water transport, real estate, SOEs; reduced policy uncertainty: revenue, debt, tax, subsidy, and exchange rate policies.