Election like no other!: Nigerians choose between pre-, post- independence candidates

Nigeria’s 2023 general elections, described by not a few persons, including some of the politicians, as an election like no other, opens on Saturday 25 February with the first and very big one, the presidential ballot, which is expected to usher in a new president to replace President Muhammadu Buhari who completes his two four-year terms on May 29, 2023.

But amidst the brick and mortar issues in — such as the destitute state of the economy, security threat across the country, heightened level of corruption, abuse of power and a leadership lacking compassion for its people — that have driven electorates’ interests in this year’s elections, the focus on the personalities standing in the presidential elections has been very high.

Four candidates, Bola Tinubu, representing Buhari’s ruling All Progressives Congress (APC); Atiku Abubakar of the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP); Peter Obi of the Labour Party; and Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), have each registered a showing in various pre-election opinion polls conducted by different groups and bodies to find out the preferences of sampled electorates ahead of the main elections on Saturday. Obi, Atiku and Tinubu are, however, the three candidates that emerged the main front runners in all of the polls so far conducted.

A lot of capital is being placed on this election, including on the back of suggestions that Nigeria faces an existential threat if the outcome of the presidential elections goes wrong. Independent analysts, however, say those suggestions would depend on who was making them and what side of the political divide they stood. But for sure, Nigerians are on a fever pitch countdown to Saturday and many of them can’t wait to see the back of the elections so that their country can press the restart button.

A number of key issues have stood out in the campaigns for these elections. Nearly eight years of the outgoing Buhari government have seen the economy in shambles, analysts say. Many electorates who say they can’t wait to see the Buhari government leave office, have said the management of the economy in the past eight years has been a total disaster. Inflation is at an all time high at 21.82 percent, fuel has been scarce for months in a country that is among the world’s top oil producing and exporting countries. Power supply has been abysmal and the country is threatened on many fronts by a plethora of security challenges.

The personalities of the three frontline candidates, Obi, Atiku and Tinubu, especially their physical preparedness for the task of governing a country faced with multiple challenges have led analysts to throw in another dimension to the political hustings – and this is based on the fact that Nigeria has never been governed by anybody born after independence in 1960. All those who have ruled the country have been born in the colonial period, which has led some to ask if Nigeria’s decades of problems, which many link to leadership failure, has any correlation with this.

Nicholas Allo, director of strategy and technology at United Kingdom-based Visual Earth, explained that in politically motivated conversation in Nigeria, the notion of change of guard, which is about to happen during these elections, always offered multiple interpretations.

“This phrase implies the usual change of publicly elected officers, by way of the ballot box, where politicians vie for political office. The next interpretation, however, is where the individual vying for public office is categorised based on their date of birth being pre or post Nigerian independence, October 1st 1960,” Allo said.

Acknowledging that during the current second democratic dispensation, candidates for the highest office have all been pre-independence born people, he noted that these had participated or were active during Nigeria’s transition, from colonial rule to self-determination.

The 2023 presidential election, Allo said, “presents the prospect of a doubled-up change of guards – change of elected persons and parties, as well as a change in the historic trend of electing or in the ‘repackaging’ of old candidates, as candidates with fresh ideas for a generation many of them are grossly disconnected from.”

Allo said Nigeria’s EndSARS fallout that ended fatally at Lekki Toll Gate in Lagos, charged up the polity, adding that, “it proved a formidable catalyst for young voters to come out in unprecedented numbers, registering to vote.” And triggering an electoral tsunami “that many pundits are anticipating, but all pre independence candidates hope will not become their reality, come Feb 25th 2023 and beyond,” he noted.

References to the health status of candidates, which would not be in the favour of pre-independence candidates, have been made.

For Martin Ike-Muonso, a professor of economics and managing director, Valuefronteira Limited, the year of Nigeria’s political independence serves as a helpful delineator between the scary colonial past and the present, adding that, “the colonists oppressed and exploited us and frequently employed harsh means to repress overtures for freedom.”

The professor argued that, “October 1, 1960, separates those born into the light of freedom or the bearers of the light of freedom from those born into the dark days of colonial oppression. Astrologers have argued that the time of someone’s birth has implications for the expected societal role. Several published zodiac reports consistently and lucidly explain how people’s experiences and behaviours have roots in when they were born. We can borrow from that line of thinking to classify the contestants in this forthcoming presidential election,” Ike-Muonso further stated.

He explained that “Atiku Abubakar, Bola Tinubu, and Rabiu Kwankwaso were all born before independence. Peter Obi and Sowore, among a few other contestants, were born in the postcolonial era of freedom. Aside from these contestants, can we argue that we have suffered the cloud of Amartya Sen’s unfreedoms for decades because our lives have been marionetted by those not born in the era of political freedom?” He asked.

In his contribution, public affairs analyst, Olukayode Oyeleye, said: “My opinion is that, if the voting is not hindered and the results are not doctored or manipulated, the pre-independent candidates are less likely to win. The post-independents seem more likely better favoured but ObiDatti seem more favoured.”

Phillip Ikhike, financial expert and programmer, submitted that “a quick audit will show that the number of equally culpable post-independence leaders is significant. I think the distinction is along the line of integrity and not age. What we need now are leaders that can lead by example, we’ve had enough of the talk and loot brigade, methinks.”

He added that without integrity, all other factors count for nothing.

Keneth Amaeshi, a leading scholar on sustainable business and finance in the global south, chair in business and sustainable development and director, Scaling Business in Africa, at the University of Edinburgh, explained that society has ways of reproducing itself, adding that all the candidates, depending on their background, education, socialisation, they would have a way of seeing the world

“I do not foresee any difference. Because we haven’t had these guys in charge before; it would be difficult to tell,” Amaeshi said, adding that what we have in Nigeria is driven by class behaviour and that the candidates have not shown ideological clarity for us to judge how they are likely to turn out in the Presidency.

On Saturday February 25, electorates will be looking at three pre-independence candidates, namely Atiku Abubakar of the PDP, born November 25, 1946 and is 76 years old; Bola Tinubu, born March 29, 1952, and is 70 years old; Rabiu Kwankwaso, born October 21, 1956 and is 66 years old, against the post-independence duo of Peter Obi, born 19 July 1961, and is 61 years old, with vice presidential running mate, Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed, born July 7, 1969 and is 53 years old.