Energy exports to Europe: Niger putsch and Trans-Saharan gas pipeline project

International politics is one critical aspect of human activities that requires much focused attention and the full caution it demands for a seamless, successful and sustainable international trade. This “3-S” observation on international trade or business is made, based on the sensitive nature of human relations among peoples of diverse cultural backgrounds that keep engaging in various trans-border economic and commercial activities in the international business arena. This therefore, involves the application of diplomacy in the engagement (in a continuous manner) by prospective partners with a common interest on any specified deal. That approach shall enable those involved to actualize the targeted mutual benefits for all stakeholders, in the course of prosecuting the deal.   

On that note, the gas pipeline ‘project restart’ worth $13 billion, “Declaration of Niamey” that was signed on 16th February 2022 by Nigeria, Niger and Algeria, is a deal that needs to be treated with utmost caution, now that the ECOWAS leaders are taking a stand against the Nigerien military junta that recently took over power from Mohamed Bazoum, the ousted president of the Republic of Niger. The project’s tripartite intergovernmental arrangement, earlier signed by their respective energy ministers on natural gas exports to Europe, many years earlier, had in the past suffered safety concerns heightened by regional insecurity. The insecurity included the terrorist incidence of 2013 which had destabilised past moves within its operational frontiers. The most recent political development in Niger has again posed to be yet another worrisome political issue within the West African sub-region, which might hamper progress on the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline deal. This, however, is viewed to either make or mar the prospects of this highly priced trans-border business exploit (which had already been attractively advised to be technically and economically feasible and reliable), if not carefully, effectively and delicately handled with the diplomacy that it demands.

The high end European energy market should remain the major focus for the NNPC Limited, to successfully penetrate (with the available marketing advantage offered by the ongoing Ukrainian–Russian war, and the damaged Nordstrom pipeline that had made Russia in past years enjoy a monopoly on the European gas market). Gas industry watchers are aware that Nigeria has made huge investments with regards to this particular gas pipeline project to Europe since the 1970s. The huge investments already made, have to be efficiently deployed in all operations along the gas value chain; this will include the ongoing Ajaokuta – Kaduna – Kano (AKK) gas pipeline with Ajaokuta at the starting point. The entire pipeline length that covers a distance of 4,188 kilometres (from Nigeria to Algeria) includes 841 kilometres within the length and breadth of Niger Republic. Apart from the already committed investments within Niger, there seems to be no other feasible and available route that could be considered as an alternative route to bypass the Republic of Niger (if Niger territorial space eventually becomes impassable due to the current political developments). Any other route (if diplomatic negotiations/ties between Nigeria and Niger collapse), would definitely be a tall order (by geographical permutations), and such an option might adversely reset the entire business programme and agenda. We pray it does not degenerate into that situation. It is hoped that the Niger crisis/Niger coup d’etat in the Sahel region would not set the entire gas supply chain to the European market backwards.

Nigeria is an economy that presently needs to utilise every available marketing tool to improve her international trade relations with all her international trading partners. This perceived strategy is most desired, especially now that the economy is facing very embarrassing financial turmoil, visibly presented by the increasing debt profile, due to all the external loans and borrowed funds in recent years. It is understandable that export of our goods and services remains an avenue, and at the same time, an attractive option that the government needs to vigorously pursue. With the opportunity of being heavily endowed with the hydrocarbon natural resources (both crude oil and natural gas), it offers the economy the privileges to explore and exploit the economic advantages inherent therein. It is therefore suggested that effective management remains the only hope this economy could deploy to salvage an already and terribly battered economy. The local currency exchange rate is still tumbling, hitting a record high figure of N960 per US dollar. Every aspect of the economic index appears to present a hostile business environment (especially the astronomical high cost of energy, and the already existing hyperinflation on all known commodities/foods in the market). This unsustainable high cost of living is choking! May those in authority deploy diplomacy (adequately enough) towards resolving the present Niger political issue, so that it does not in any way, disrupt the existing plan nor affect the nation’s hope of exporting her gas capital stock through the Niger territorial space, for export to the European gas market.