Access Holdings Plc delivered a strong top-line performance in its FY’24 results, with Gross Earnings rising by 88% y/y to N4.9 trillion (FY’23: N2.6 trillion), surpassing our projection of N4.3 trillion. Notably, significant FX revaluation gains and income from the sale of convertible notes not previously captured in our initial projections contributed a combined N555 billion in positive variance to our gross earnings forecast.
Breaking it down, Interest income rose by 99% y/y to N3.4 trillion (Vetiva estimate: N3.6 trillion), reflecting higher yields across core earning assets. Specifically, interest income from loans and advances to customers jumped by 118% y/y to N1.6 trillion, while placements with banks and investment securities also grew significantly, rising by 118% y/y to N141.1 billion and 74% y/y to N1.2 trillion, respectively. Consequently, the Group’s asset yield expanded to 15% from 11% in FY’23.
Non-Interest Revenue Provides Significant Earnings Support
Non-interest revenue (NIR) grew strongly by 49% y/y to N1.3 trillion (Vetiva estimate: N744 billion), significantly outperforming expectations. The key drivers were a 100% y/y increase in net fee and commission income to N415 billion, a substantial FX revaluation gain of N228 billion (+1,571% y/y), and other income of N459.1 billion (+247% y/y). Notably, the Group recorded a N326.2 billion gain from the sale of $300 million worth of mandatory convertible notes. As a result, total operating income rose by 64% y/y to N2.6 trillion (FY’23: N1.6 trillion).
Funding costs outpace asset yields
However, funding costs rose at a faster pace, as interest expense increased by 131% y/y to N2.2 trillion (Vetiva estimate: N2.1 trillion), up from N958.9 billion in FY’23. This was driven by sharp increases in interest paid on deposits from financial customers (N992.3 billion: +96% y/y), financial institutions (N954.7 billion: +98% y/y), and other borrowings (N207.8 billion: +162% y/y). As a result, the Group’s cost of funds climbed to 8% (FY’23: 5%). Despite the steep rise in funding costs, Net Interest Margin (NIM) remained resilient, expanding slightly to 6% from 5% in the previous year.
What shaped the past week?
Equities: This week, the local equity market traded in a bullish manner, gaining 1.46% w/w to settle at 105,753.05 pts. This gain was majorly driven by the gains in the consumer goods sector, as the index gained 8.65% w/w. Stocks such as INTBREW (+40.00% w/w), and CADBURY (+20.91% w/w) were among the top gainers. Similarly, the Insurance sector rose by 7.30% w/w, due to gains observed in NEM (+16.28% w/w). Also, the Banking sector closed higher at 5.06% w/w. Finally, the Industrial Goods sector and Oil & Gas contracted by (-3.43% w/w) and (-0.07% w/w).
Fixed Income: This week, system liquidity remained robust throughout the week, opening the final trading day with a positive balance of ₦1.8 trillion, supported by sustained inflows at the Standing Deposit Facility (SDF). As a result, OPR declined by 138bps to 26.25% w/w. At the end of the week, the secondary market closed on a mixed note with a bullish bias, especially on short-term instruments, with the most notable change being a yield drop of 59bps on the 182-day T-bill to 19.73%.
Currency: At the NAFEM, the Naira closed flat w/w to close at ₦1,600 per dollar.
Domestic Economy:
The IMF revised Nigeria’s 2025 GDP growth forecast downward to 3.0% from 3.2%, and further to 2.7% in 2026, citing weaker oil receipts and global economic headwinds. Despite this, local data paints a more optimistic picture with a $6.83 billion Balance of Payments surplus in 2024 and rising domestic investment activity, particularly in refining and infrastructure. Additionally, they projected that inflationary pressures would remain elevated, with headline inflation to average 26.5% in 2025 and spike to 37.0% in 2026, while real per capita income is expected to grow marginally by 0.6% in 2025 and 0.3% in 2026, underscoring persistent pressure on household welfare.
Global: US stocks opened on a cautious note Friday, barely budging after a strong three-day rally, as investors parsed through mixed earnings from tech heavyweights and fresh trade rhetoric from the White House. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped by 0.2%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite hovered slightly below the flatline. Despite Friday’s muted session, all three indices are set to post solid weekly gains: the S&P 500 rose by 3.8%, the Nasdaq went up by 5.4%, and the Dow inched up around 2%. European stock markets began Friday’s session on a positive note, carrying forward momentum from a global rally spurred by renewed optimism in technology stocks and tentative hopes surrounding international trade dynamics. Investors turned their focus to a fresh batch of corporate earnings reports emerging from across the continent. The Pan-European Stoxx 600 index edged higher by 0.2% around 8:15 am in London, setting the stage for a potential fourth consecutive day of gains after accumulating a 2.4% rise earlier in the week. Regional indices showed a similar, albeit slightly mixed, early picture: Germany’s DAX opened up 0.2% and France’s CAC 40 rose 0.5%, while the UK’s FTSE 100 started flat.
What will shape markets in the coming week?
Equity market: All in, we expect the market to trade in a mixed manner in the trading sessions, given the positive sentiment from this week filters out of the market, especially with key names having already released their latest quarterly performance numbers and other company earnings that will be released in the coming week.
Fixed Income: Given the elevated liquidity levels, we anticipate some impact on the NTB space next week; however, the possibility of the CBN conducting an OMO auction to mop up excess liquidity cannot be ruled out.
