Food prices under threat as Middle Belt conflict hits agriculture

Onome Amuge

Concerns are mounting across Nigeria as the persistent conflict in the Middle Belt region continues to disrupt agricultural activities, posing a significant threat to food security and potentially driving up food prices nationwide. The clashes, primarily between herders and farming communities, have escalated in recent years, transforming from localized disputes over grazing land into a multifaceted crisis with far-reaching economic consequences.

The Middle Belt, known as Nigeria’s “food basket,” is considered a crucial agricultural zone, producing a significant portion of the nation’s staple crops, including yam, maize, cassava, and various vegetables.

However, the ongoing violence has forced many farmers to abandon their lands, fearing for their safety and the destruction of their livelihoods. This disruption in farming activities has led to a dramatic decline in agricultural output from the region.

This concerning trend was highlighted in a recent report by SBM Intelligence, an Africa-focused geographical research and strategic communications consultancy. The report, titled “A Threat to National Stability,” examines the persistent farmer-herder conflict in Nigeria, revealing its southward expansion while continuing to severely impact the country’s primary food-producing region.

The SBM Intelligence report warns that Nigeria’s current hunger crisis is likely to intensify, with acute food insecurity on the horizon. This worrisome outlook is attributed to the significant drop in agricultural output in the Middle Belt states of Benue, Nasarawa, and Plateau, a direct consequence of the escalating clashes between herders and farming communities.

The human toll of the farmer-herder conflict is immense, according to the SBM Intelligence report, with over 2.2 million people displaced across Nigeria. Benue State alone hosts 300,000 displaced individuals in severely overcrowded camps.

Nigeria’s pastoral conflict, according to the report, has transformed from localised disagreements over grazing land into a major national security threat, impacting numerous regions and jeopardizing overall stability, the report highlighted. The violence, largely involving clashes between Fulani herders and farming communities, has expanded southward from its Middle Belt origins, escalating in states such as Edo and Ondo, while its destructive impact persists in Benue, Nasarawa, and Plateau.

SBM Intelligence analysts point to a confluence of complex and interconnected factors driving the crisis. They noted that climate change and desertification in Nigeria’s northern regions have led to a significant reduction in available grazing land, compelling pastoralists to move southward into the country’s agricultural core. This migration, combined with population growth and unequal development, has been observed to have intensified competition for increasingly scarce resources, exacerbating tensions between herders and farmers.

The SBM Intelligence report highlighted a shift in the nature of the conflict since 2010. It noted that traditional methods of resolving disputes have broken down, coinciding with an influx of sophisticated weaponry into the affected areas, further escalating the violence and making peaceful settlements increasingly difficult to achieve.

“What were once minor clashes mediated with sticks now involve AK-47s and military-grade firearms, enabling systematic violence, including crop destruction and land appropriation.

“The human cost is staggering: over 2.2 million displaced nationwide, with 300,000 in Benue’s overcrowded camps alone. Nigeria’s food security hangs in the balance as the Middle Belt’s agricultural output plummets, exacerbating inflation. The crisis has also metastasised, merging with banditry and kidnapping networks,” the report noted.

The report also raised disturbing concerns about complicity within the affected communities, including allegations of intelligence-sharing with attackers for financial rewards, which has further complicated efforts to counter the violence.

Furthermore, the SBM Intelligence report posits that while security operations may offer temporary respite, as they do not address the fundamental drivers of the conflict. The analysts also highlight the dangerous ethnic and religious politicisation of the crisis, including accusations of “Fulanisation,” which has deepened existing divisions and made finding lasting solutions even more challenging.

To achieve a lasting resolution, SBM Intelligence recommended a comprehensive and multifaceted strategy. Key recommendations include the urgent implementation of land reforms to clearly define grazing rights, the establishment of robust arms control measures to curb the proliferation of sophisticated weaponry, the development and execution of climate adaptation programs to address the environmental factors driving migration, and the initiation of depoliticised dialogue among all stakeholders to foster understanding and reconciliation.

The SBM Intelligence report concludes with a warning, noting that with attacks spreading southward and displacement numbers increasing annually, Nigeria has a rapidly closing window of opportunity to prevent the pastoral conflict from escalating into an irreversible national disaster.

The consultancy emphasised the urgency of the situation, stating that the time for coordinated action is now, as further delay only deepens the crisis, threatening Nigeria’s unity, food security, and democratic fabric.

Already, there are concerns about potential increases in food prices in the coming months. While the National Bureau of Statistics reported a drop in the year-on-year food inflation rate to 23.51 percent in February 2025, this decrease is partly attributed to a change in the base year for measurement. Month-on-month, food inflation still stood at 1.67 percent, indicating that prices are still rising, albeit at a slower pace in some areas.

It is believed that the disruption in supply from the Middle Belt could reverse this trend and lead to a sharp increase in the cost of essential food items for Nigerian households.

Market surveys conducted in March 2025 in some states showed a decrease in the average prices of certain staple foods like rice, beans, yam, and garri.

Analysts attributed this to improved agricultural practices, favorable weather conditions in some regions, and government initiatives to boost food production. However, these gains could be short-lived if the Middle Belt conflict persists and intensifies, further hindering agricultural production and disrupting supply chains, they stated.

Experts warn that the conflict’s impact extends beyond just crop production. Livestock farming, also a significant part of the Middle Belt’s agricultural contribution, has been severely affected by cattle rustling and insecurity. This, they said, will likely lead to higher prices for meat and dairy products.

The government has implemented various measures to address the conflict, including the National Livestock Transformation Plan and anti-open grazing laws in some states. However, reports indicate that the implementation has been inconsistent and faced challenges.

Therefore, analysts call for a more comprehensive and decisive approach that tackles the root causes of the conflict, including land use reforms, climate change adaptation, and improved security measures to control the proliferation of arms in the region.