Global economic recovery is in sight as GDP projected to be 5.6% – OECD

…There is need for speed to strengthen the recovery

Ben Eguzozie

A global economic recovery is now in sight. Activity in many sectors has picked up, and partially adapted to pandemic restrictions, said a report by the OECD. It said that prospects have improved over recent months with signs of a rebound in goods trade and industrial production becoming clear by the end of 2020.

“Global GDP (gross domestic product) is now projected to be 5.6 per cent this year 2021, an upward revision of more than 1 percentage point from the December OECD economic outlook.”

According to the report, contained in OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report March 2021 titled “Strengthening the recovery: The need for speed,” world output is expected to reach pre-pandemic levels by mid-2021, but much will depend on the race between vaccines and emerging variants of the virus. Faster and more effective vaccination deployment across the world is critical, the OECD stressed. It noted though that the Covid-19 vaccine rollout, although uneven, is gaining momentum.

Meanwhile, the OECD said government stimulus, particularly in the United States, is likely to provide a major boost to economic activity. However, prospects for sustainable growth vary widely between countries and sectors.

How far can Africa fare, given the ongoing projected recovery display by countries and regions of the world? The continent of 1.3 billion people is still battling with securing its first tranche consignment of vaccines order for the member-states. With dipped revenues of governments, plummeted commodity prices, massive job losses, and fallen consumer spending, analysts are doubtful if the continent can muster “faster and more effective vaccination deployment” across its 55 sovereign states.

OECD believes the world is on the road to recovery but there is a long way to go. Strengthening the global economic recovery, there is need for speed by leadership of countries and regions.

“The global vaccine rollout remains uneven, with restrictions remaining in some countries and sectors. The outlook for growth would improve (upside scenario) if the production and distribution of doses accelerates, is better co-ordinated around the world, and gets ahead of virus mutations.

“This would allow containment measures to be relaxed more rapidly and global output to approach pre-pandemic projections for activity. But consumer spending and business confidence would be hit (downside scenario) if vaccination programmes are not fast enough to cut infection rates or if new variants become more widespread and require changes to current vaccines,” the OECD said.