Grim omen as ECOWAS loses Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger (7)

THE SEA CHANGE SWEEPING ACROSS the Sahel has just reached the northern tip of the Western coast of West Africa. This time, it didn’t happen by coup d’état but it took the form of a democratic process. The change in leadership occurred despite spirited attempts by the incumbent to retain power against the dictates of the country’s constitution and to frustrate the wishes of the people. Democracy was put to the test with mass resistance and a flicker of assurance that the wishes of the people would eventually prevail against all odds. It also became evident that a government put in place by popular demand through credible elections can be made to work if the people holding the reins of power would let it. What would probably have led to the recent experiences of Guinea Conakry, Mali and Niger was narrowly averted in Senegal as the handpicked candidate of the incumbent president and a member of the ruling party was resoundingly defeated by a relatively obscure candidate in an election that led to the end of the 12 years reign of Macky Sall as President, a period marked by chaos and contradictions towards the end.

The presidential election held on March 24, 2024 threw up Bassirou Diomaye Faye, a hitherto unlikely candidate, as winner from among over a dozen of candidates. With 54 percent of the total votes, the 44 year-old Faye became the new president of Senegal. This did not happen without some contrived political and social crisis attributed to President Sall who was widely believed to be the mastermind as events confirmed the suspicion that he intended to extend his mandate into a third term. Had he succeeded, he probably would have thrown Senegal into chaos and constitutional crisis or even pushed the country down the path of military takeover. Fears lasting over a period of political turmoil about outgoing Sall’s exit soon gave way to certainty as Faye was sworn in on Tuesday, April 2, 2024. This was after the delayed vote originally billed to have taken place in February but was postponed by Sall for the first time in Senegal’s history as Sall expressed disgust and accused the constitutional judges which were to draw up the list of candidates allegedly culpable of corruption. This, in critics’ reckoning, was a veiled attempt and a last-ditch effort by Sall to remain in power.

Sall’s continued stay in office would have been more beneficial to outsiders than Senegalese as it was obvious over the tumultuous and rancorous latter days of his regime he did not draw any noticeable criticism or discontent from France — a country that has purportedly served as guardian of democracy in Senegal. In reality, and particularly based on the outcome of the March 24 election, the influence of France on Senegal seems set to diminish. This ordeal with Senegal will further potentiate the already diminished influence in the three Sahel States that have now formed a formidable Alliance (AES) in which an alternative to the CFA as a regional currency is already being considered. That will further complicate the diplomatic nightmare for France. And, as if emulating Mali’s decision after the June 2023 referendum on official language, Senegal may soon drop French as its official language.

Faye neither minced words nor wasted time about a shift in policy direction as he promised “sweeping” change that will include the renegotiating of oil and gas contracts, changing Senegal’s relationship with France, dropping the French language and establishing a new national currency. President Faye and Ousmane Sonko, his former mentor and the new Prime Minister, have pledged to drop or change the terms of the CFA, the regional currency backed by France. This is notwithstanding the fact that the headquarters of the Central Bank of West African States or Banque Centrale des États de l’Afrique de l’Ouest (BCEAO) is in Dakar, Senegal’s capital. Operationally, this will likely hasten the death of CFA in West Africa as the remaining members of West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) might experience serious setbacks in dealing with the headquarters in Senegal. The changing of Senegal’s relationship with France and the replacement of French language will undoubtedly be a big blow to France, a country that has been trying so hard to keep pulling the strings and levers of power from backstage in the former French colonies. It is predictable that the fortunes of France will deteriorate in the years ahead as the only European country that keeps its economy afloat by sucking its former colonies under the guise of assimilation and protection. Now that four former colonies (they may increase to five soon) have chosen to end colonial ties with France, it is doubtful if France will be able to hold the rest of them firmly any longer. The WAEMU bloc may become leaner or ultimately collapse as  Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger and Senegal pull out, leaving Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea-Bissau and Togo to struggle to hold the remnants together.

Just as Ibrahim Traore, the military leader of Burkina Faso, recently cancelled all foreign mining licences, President Faye has announced in his inaugural speech that he will embark on radical reforms in which the extractive industry will be impacted. The audit is one of the first policy moves he announced at his inauguration. Said he: “The exploitation of our natural resources, which according to the constitution belong to the people, will receive particular attention from my government. I will proceed with the disclosure of the effective ownership of extractive companies (and) with an audit of the mining, oil and gas sector.” Although Ousmane Sonko, as Prime Minister, said the government, “set up here on April 5…. embodies the project, a systemic transformation voted for by the Senegalese people,” the reforms being contemplated appear as decisive and similar in type as those already under implementation by Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger which are currently under military leadership. Moreover, the representation of the three countries’ military leaders at Faye’s inauguration sends more of a message of camaraderie, extending beyond cold diplomacy, as there could be more countries very likely to  join the AES in no distant future. According to an interview comment on the inauguration day by the new president’s uncle, also named Diomaye Faye, “the youth of Senegal is connecting with the youth of those countries, over these issues of sovereignty.”

The indecision and refusal to come clean on President Sall’s political calculation portrayed him as one of those commonly referred to as Western allies, which indeed are regarded as puppets to Western interests. In Sall’s case, he was viewed as one that exalted France’s interests above his country’s. Any wonder why France chose not to reprimand Sall, whose popularity dipped during his second term due to economic hardship unleashed on the people, a crackdown on dissent, and the uncertainty that he would tamper with the constitution to run for a third term? Under Sall’s watch, the official unemployment rate rose to 20 percent over his 11 years of rule by the time of his exit from office. That was enough of an indictment. By contrast, the neighbouring Mali, which — as part of its transition calendar —organised a June 2023 referendum, backed by regional powers and Mali’s ruling military junta, earlier said it will pave the way to elections in February 2024 and a subsequent return to civilian rule. It is clear at this point in time that the transition calendar will have to be redrawn since Mali’s junta is presently preoccupied with the AES confederacy and no visible transition agenda is currently under implementation.

As Faye becomes Senegal’s youngest president and currently Africa’s youngest president, it is expected that he will channel his youthful energy and poise to reviving the economy of Senegal and fulfilling his countrymen’s expectations of a better future. In particular, it is hoped that he will halt the drift of young Senegalese migrating to Europe under desperate, precarious and dangerous journeys.

Leaders of those countries of ECOWAS who thought to force those military leaders to step down may soon come to terms with the reality that they may have been making egregious mistakes, especially as their actions are some forms of antithesis to the realities within the region. It is embarrassing that, until those military juntas came, the self-proclaimed democratic leaders in ECOWAS did not deem it fit to make the liberation of the former French colonies from France a top priority. The only democratic leader that has just voiced out that passion and intention is the in-coming Senegalese president.  Nigeria’s Ahmed Tinubu who currently chairs ECOWAS may have got a firsthand feedback on these at the Faye’s inauguration ceremony in Dakar. During that inauguration, people cheered the military president of Guinea and the representatives of Mali and Burkina Faso, now ruled by juntas. It seems like the new government of Senegal has struck a common cord with those juntas as they similarly  focus on sovereignty and freedom from France, the former colonial power perceived by many West Africans as predatory by its continued meddling in their affairs. This was a message missed by Tinubu in his spirited efforts to help France force out the military junta in Niger in 2023, an action that has given those disgruntled countries reasons to suspect that Tinubu was France’s lackey. That suspicion has been further cemented by Tinubu’s repeated and prolonged stays during his purported private visits to France.

It was either that those working with France to force out the military junta in Niger did not realise that France was working through them to actualise its own selfish agenda or that they were aware but simply did not care as long as the ends justifies the means in ways favourable to them or were simply ignoring the unintended consequences. But those who are already fed up with France’s influence must have seen more reasons to be wary of ECOWAS for teaming up with France in putting pressure on fellow Africans on the grounds of power and the excuse of protecting democracy. Furthermore, it has eroded the respect for Nigeria, Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire from those countries now under military rule just as it has diminished their trust in the ECOWAS currently chaired by Nigeria’s president. For instance, the embarrassing compromises made by Nigeria’s judiciary up to the highest level in ensuring the ascendancy of Tinubu as president is diametrically opposite of what the Senegal’s constitutional judges did to stop the overbearing influence of Macky Sall whereupon the judiciary stood its ground. It follows therefore that smaller countries are now setting examples on probity and governance ethics for bigger ones like Nigeria and Côte d’Ivoire to emulate.

The diatribe purportedly traded by Abdourahmane Tchiani of Niger and Ibrahim Traore of Burkina Faso against Nigerian and Ghanaian presidents could provide an insight into the feelings of those countries against Nigeria and Ghana in particular. For instance, a video was purportedly sometimes circulating on social media claiming that Niger’s coup leader, General Abdourahamane Tchiani, said he would not listen to the president of Nigeria, Bola Tinubu’s “illegitimate” government. Responding to the accusation openly made on March 12 during the US-Africa Summit 2024 by Ghanaian President Nana Akufo Addo that Traore ceded some southern parts of Burkina Faso to Wagner, Russia’s mercenary group, Traore recently attacked Akufo Addo and Tinubu, accusing them of helping France against Africa. The recent back-and-forth between Ghana and Burkina Faso has further complicated their diplomatic relations in the past few weeks. Captain Traore has reportedly sent serious warning to Tinubu, calling him a Western puppet. The announcement made by ECOWAS on unilateral revoking of sanctions placed on Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger did not seem to have had any positive impact on making those countries change their minds about withdrawal from ECOWAS. The ensuing hostile disposition has further worsened the prospects of rapprochement on ECOWAS in the foreseeable future, not only from the standpoint of Traore but from the other countries currently under military rule in West Africa. The regional instability is likely to escalate and be prolonged in the months ahead as heads of countries that are supposed to come together to find solutions are now directly involved in open quarrels. It sums up the fears that the clock of the demise of ECOWAS is ticking fast. It might just give up life anytime soon.

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