IMF says global economy will slow after 2019 on escalating trade tensions

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said Tuesday it expects global growth to slow after 2019, adding that the risks of rising protectionism beyond the next several quarters lean toward the downside.

It said though the global economy is still on an upswing, the good times may not last beyond the next year or two.

“Global growth is projected to soften beyond the next couple of years,” the IMF said in its latest World Economic Outlook.

The IMF listed several factors that could drag on growth, including rising protectionism, escalating political and trade tensions, and “waning popular support for global economic integration.”

The World Bank made a similar prediction in January, saying growth could start flagging in the next couple of years as major economies such as the United States, China and the European Union begin to cool.

The IMF however forecast that growth would inch up from 3.8 percent in 2017, its fastest pace in six years, to 3.9 percent in 2018 and 2019, which is in line with its most recent estimate in January.

It also upgraded its forecast for US growth in 2018 to 2.9 percent, up from 2.7 percent previously.

While President Trump’s tax cuts are expected to boost the US and global growth in the short term, the report warned that those effects will soon wear off as well.

“US tax reform will subtract momentum starting in 2020,” the IMF said.