Is Africa about to implode? (3)

SOME SILVER LININGS MAY actually be showing up around the dark clouds coalescing over Africa’s sky. Depending on some unfolding realities, the continent may be able to weather the storm. If Africa is able to seize on the gathering momentum as well as the opportune moment and sustain a tempo of positive change, some harms could be averted. But that depends on the word “if.”  If Africa is able to convert to advantage the flurry of diplomatic platforms opening up to it from some richer and more advanced economies, the fortune of the continent could be turned around for the better in some significant ways. In the past couple of years, heads of governments from African countries have been receiving invitations and have been attending summits in which interests of Africa and host countries convening the summits are top considerations. In 2018 and 2021, the seventh and eighth Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) summits have been held in Beijing and Dakar respectively.

Tokyo International Conference for African Development (TICAD) 7 meeting was held in Yokohama, Japan. TICAD event was organised by the Government of Japan, the United Nations, the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), the World Bank, and the African Union Commission (AUC).The Eighth Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD8) was to be held in Tunisia in July 16, 2020, a period which later turned out to become a peak of COVID-19 lockdown in many countries globally. The first Russia-Africa Summit was held on October 2019 in Sochi, Russia. The summit was co-hosted by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. Since China and Japan have adopted alternation of summits between their home countries and Africa, a new era of high-level multi-country summits seems set to dawn on Africa. An opportunity to bring in fresh new angles to the risks and prospects of Africa was the basis for discussions here. It will be rather too early to be too optimistic about remarkable turnaround for Africa at this point, but it is important to be hopeful for positive changes all the same.

Last week Thursday and Friday, in Brussels, were dedicated to the 6th European Union-African Union Summit, including its sub-regions. The seriousness of the meeting was underscored in the opening speech by European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, who openly reminisced over her recent trips to Africa and said she saw some interesting things worth the attention within the continent. Her statements will be copiously quoted here and sometimes repeated verbatim to ensure that the sense she sought to portray is not lost. She said that when she newly assumed her role as President of the European Commission, she “emphasised that Africa would be the key partner in building the world we want to live in. And the very first trip abroad of the new Commission, the College of Commissioners, was to visit the African Union – Moussa Faki – in Addis Ababa.” She had subsequently met President Macky Sall in Senegal in the latter’s capacity as President of the African Union. Summarising her motivation for a renewed affinity for Africa, she said “we all share the same vision: We want to create stability, prosperity for our people. And of course, for that, we need economic and social dynamism. And this Summit is the perfect opportunity to discuss how we are going to work together, how we are making our joint ambitions a reality.

It seems clearer that the EU has eventually seen reasons for returning to Africa after long period of deliberate neglect and abandonment. Von der Leyen indicated that the EU would now want to talk to Africa about “solid, tangible investment.” In her details, she talked about Global Gateway, describing it as “a strategy for investment in infrastructure and in people.” She was obviously convinced that the “most precious investment you can do is the investment in people,” just as she expressed the EU’s readiness to invest “in quality infrastructure – connecting people and goods and services.” Another remarkable thing she said was her emphasis on “a values-based approach, …transparency and good governance.” In her speech laced with repetitions, von der Leyen maintained that “we want to turn Global Gateway into a trusted brand around the world,” which “muster Europe’s power to unlock unprecedented levels of investment, not only public but also private capital.” Then came the bombshell of “a package of at least EUR 150 billion for Africa for the next seven years,” an amount equivalent to about $170 billion.

It might be appropriate to ask “where have these people been all through these past years? Or, what led to this rather sudden diplomatic shuttle from EU to Africa and not vice versa? There is no doubt that the EU has only just woken up to the realisation that the rug of Africa was already being pulled off under EU’s feet. It is just a matter of time and Europe would have become alienated from Africa as new suitors take hold and Africa tended toward the East – whether to China, Japan or Russia. According to a recent report, China invested $2.96 billion in Africa in 2020, up 9.5 per cent from 2019. About $2.66 billion of that sum was non-financial direct investment. The EU, therefore, appears poised to outspend China on Africa as it now promises “to catalyse investments in three categories,” namely: infrastructure, health as well as electricity interconnection and energy access, with energy described as “the top priority.” She mentioned what she called “the pathway to renewable energy and, of course, the transition towards renewable energy,” arguing that “sustained economic development hinges on reliable access to energy.”

It will be reassuring to see the EU translating some of these high-sounding ambitious promises to Africa into realities in few years’ time.  On energy, for instance, von der Leyen observed that “Africa has solar, wind and hydropower in abundance. So let us build on that. Let us invest in Global Gateway projects, for example to build together green hydrogen capacity. And let us discuss the transition, how to get there.”  Before Africa falls for these mouth-watering promises, it is important to introspect and figure out what were the possible motives of the EU in these areas that it seems to have just suddenly realised as good for inter-regional assistance. Her acknowledgement that “about 600 million people without access to electricity,” which she described as “a real challenge” and her belief that, “together, we can make the difference” should be thoroughly examined. This is because Africa has become a beautiful bride that now attracts various suitors. It takes discretion for Africa to flow with the right one in this context.

In her litany of promises, von der Leyen made a point about the “need to invest in transport corridors like roads and railways and waterways. It is the connection of energy, electricity and transport that opens, widely opens, the door to the African Free Trade Area. Or take the digital transition: This is where the new model of economic productivity lies.” She said of her Dakar experience that what young entrepreneurs need is access to the internet to develop their brilliant ideas. She then talked about “focus on connecting Europe and Africa via submarine cables, and Africa’s regions via terrestrial cables. And also satellite communication, it covers both our continent, to indeed bring high-performance broadband to the remote regions.” She said the young African entrepreneurs need access to capital, investment in connectivity and in skills and investments in micro, small and medium enterprises. Thus, she said, “with Global Gateway, we will heavily invest in Technical Vocational and Education Training. Global Gateway is here to invest in the talent of Africa.” Sounds great, doesn’t she? But time will prove. And a few years will be enough to make reference to these comments and quotes and to make a scorecard on the EU.

The new thinking of the EU needs to be put into context in time and unfolding global events. “I cherish the vision of two continents working hand in hand to improve the world we live in,” von der Leyen added. But this is not the first time the EU and Africa would have something to do together officially. What happened to the ACP-EU arrangement on which Europe, Caribbean and Africa spent years to articulate and communicate? Why has Africa not made much progress on it after many years? What is the EU doing to curtail the flow of political and economic migrants from Africa? According to the UN, as at December 2021, at least 30,000 migrants were stranded at borders in West Africa while fleeing poverty, violence and armed attacks. Also in November 2021, some 14,800 refugees and migrants reportedly arrived in Europe through both the Western Mediterranean and Northwest Africa, which would ultimately add to the budgetary strain, social stress and economic burden for destination countries. It is important for the EU to deal with the causes of the migration, particularly bad governments, conflicts, droughts, poverty and unemployment in Africa.

Proximity between Africa and the EU is one major reason why the EU needs to step up its development interventions in Africa. The EU therefore needs to help Africa, which will in turn help the EU to be free from violence and vices associated with immigrants. Many of the points raised by von der Leyen can succeed in achieving any of these goals if diligently pursued. Unlocking the opportunities in Africa’s agriculture can provide steady flow of tropical foods in the EU upon mutually agreed terms, especially EurepGAP. Creation of export corridors will therefore boost Africa’s agro-economy, create jobs for people and less tendency to violence and migration. Whether the nice ideas earlier mentioned will trickle down to the level of common people in Africa remains a big challenge as some projects will very likely be scuttled or may not get to the grassroots except implementers bypass corrupt government officials and politicians.

Without proper checks and balances, therefore, EU’s planned intervention may end up on paper as mere intentions and wishful thinking. The rot in Africa may therefore continue while the EU continues to hobnob with corrupt African leaders, despots and tyrants. There is still a long way to go if Africa must be transformed into an economic force to reckon with. Before the EU begins to complain about a relationship that is not working, it is important to do a thorough homework on how to help Africa such that the material and financial support from the former does not slip into wrong hands while the latter continues to wallow in poverty, insecurity, poor health and environmental degradation. It is up to von der Leyen, the EU and the AU officials that are set to broker these new deals to make a real difference and help make Africa prosperous and free from its present challenges.