Onome Amuge
Nigeria has emerged as Africa’s top rice producer, yielding 8.7 million tonnes last year, according to a new report by IndexBox. This output surpasses that of Madagascar and Egypt, which followed with five million tonnes each, collectively accounting for 45 per cent of Africa’s total rice production.
The IndexBox report, titled “Africa – Rice – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights,” highlighted that Tanzania, Guinea, Mali, Cote d’Ivoire, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Senegal, and Sierra Leone trailed behind, contributing a further 40 per cent to the continent’s production. Notably, Senegal recorded the most significant production growth rate among the leading producers between 2013 and 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of +11.6 per cent.
Nigeria also led in consumption, matching its production at 8.7 million tonnes in the same period. Madagascar (5.6 million tonnes) and Egypt (5.1 million tonnes) were the next largest consumers, together representing 34 per cent of total consumption. Guinea, Tanzania, Cote d’Ivoire, Mali, Senegal, Benin, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo collectively accounted for another 37 per cent of consumption. The Democratic Republic of the Congo saw the largest consumption increase between 2013 and 2024, with a CAGR of +7.7 per cent.
In value terms, Nigeria’s rice market stood at $10.5 billion last year, the largest on the continent. Madagascar followed at $3.9 billion, with Egypt in third place.
Per capita consumption figures revealed Guinea as the highest at 290 kg per person, followed by Madagascar (181 kg) and Benin (161 kg). The Democratic Republic of the Congo recorded the most notable growth in per capita consumption between 2013 and 2024, with a CAGR of +4.3 per cent.
Market forecast: Continued growth expected
Looking ahead, IndexBox forecasts continued upward consumption trends in the African rice market, driven by increasing demand. However, market performance is expected to decelerate, with an anticipated CAGR of +1.3 per cent for the period from 2024 to 2035, projecting a market volume of 66 million tonnes by the end of the forecast period. In value terms, the market is projected to increase with a CAGR of +1.8 per cent, reaching $42 billion (in nominal wholesale prices) by 2035.
The report noted a slight decrease in overall rice consumption last year, down by -0.8 per cent to 57 million tonnes, after three years of growth. Despite this dip, total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.6 per cent between 2013 and 2024.
The value of the African rice market was estimated at $34.7 billion last year, largely unchanged from the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers.
Production and trade dynamics
Rice production in Africa saw a -3 per cent decrease last year to 41 million tonnes, following six years of growth. However, the total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.1 per cent from 2013 to 2024. The average yield of rice in Africa remained constant at 2.3 tonnes per hectare last year.
Approximately 17 million tonnes of rice were imported into Africa last year, a 5.1 per cent increase on the previous year. Benin (1.7 million tonnes), Cote d’Ivoire (1.6 million tonnes), and Senegal (1.5 million tonnes) were the largest importers, collectively accounting for 27 per cent of the total import value, which rose to $7.6 billion in 2024. Ethiopia recorded the most significant growth in import value among the key importing countries between 2013 and 2024, with a CAGR of +12.8 per cent.
The IndexBox report underscores the evolving dynamics of the African rice market, with Nigeria establishing itself as a key player in production while consumption patterns and trade flows continue to shape the continental landscape.
