Nigeria’s food inflation top 5 globally as insecurity, climate change hit hard 

Onome Amuge

The World Bank has identified Nigeria as one of the top ten countries most severely impacted by food inflation, placing the nation fifth globally and third in Africa, behind Malawi and Liberia.

In the World Bank’s September report, Haiti takes the unfortunate distinction of being the country with the highest food inflation rate in the world, at a 12 percent year-on-year increase, closely followed by Malawi, Vietnam, and Liberia in the global rankings.

The World Bank’s report indicated an increase in the global food security crisis, where 18 countries, including Nigeria, are experiencing a devastating decline in food security due to increased conflict and climate-related disasters, leaving more than a million additional people facing high levels of food insecurity compared to the previous year.

The World Bank report reveals that the escalating food inflation and deteriorating food security in Nigeria are primarily a result of the intensifying conflicts in food-producing regions and the severe effects of extreme weather events such as floods and droughts.

According to the report, Nigeria witnessed a 28 percent increase in food insecure individuals between August 2023 and September 2024.

Over one million people were newly added to the list of those experiencing high levels of hunger, resulting in a disturbing upward trend in the country’s food insecurity figures.

The World Bank’s report corroborates other studies that demonstrate a significant escalation of food insecurity in Nigeria, caused by a complex interplay of factors, including disruptions in agricultural production, soaring food prices, and market disturbances triggered by insecurity and climate-related catastrophes.

The impact of flooding on Nigeria’s land has been a major contributor to the country’s growing food insecurity, as revealed by the Cadre Harmonisé analysis and referenced by the World Bank.

The analysis shows that approximately 1.6 million hectares of land across the nation have been destroyed by flood, with 342,650 hectares of vital cropland submerged.

No fewer than 685,770 vulnerable individuals, particularly in the Northern and Niger Delta regions, were recorded to have been adversely affected by  floods, exacerbating an already dire situation in areas where insecurity is rampant. 

This, according to the analysis, contributed to the rapidly escalating food security crisis in Nigeria, which saw a food inflation rate of 40.87 percent in June 2024—a 28-year high.

The unrelenting insecurity plaguing Nigeria’s northern farming regions has added another layer of complexity to the country’s food security crisis.

According to a report by S.B. Morgan Intelligence, at least 1,356 farmers were killed between 2020 and 2024 in the North, with many forced to pay amounts of money (up to N100,000) just to access their own land, thanks to the alarming levels of insecurity that have paralysed agricultural productivity in the region.

The dire consequences of Nigeria’s deepening food security crisis were further substantiated by projections from the World Bank and Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO).

At the start of 2024, the World Bank predicted that seven Northern Nigerian states would be facing severe hunger, while recent estimates from the FAO indicated that 32 percent of the population, approximately 60 million people, are encountering hunger, a stark increase due to spiralling food prices and environmental disasters.

The World Bank and FAO projections serve as a bleak warning of the worsening food security situation in Nigeria, which is anticipated to intensify in the coming months.

Increasing petrol prices, recently announced by the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited (NNPCL), coupled with persistent flooding throughout the country, are expected to exacerbate the crisis, compounding the structural challenges arising from climate change and insecurity.

In light of these challenges, the outlook for food inflation remains bleak, placing further pressure on the country’s food supply chains and its vulnerable populations, making the need for immediate and decisive action all the more urgent.