Oil prices soar 2.5% as Israel, US threaten retaliation for Iranian missile strike

Business a.m.

Oil prices skyrocketed by more than three percent on Wednesday as the Middle East was thrust into turmoil by Iran’s unrelenting missile barrage on Israel, its most significant direct attack to date.

The market turmoil was amplified by Israel and the United States’ vow to retaliate, sending the oil markets into a frenzy as traders braced for the ripple effects of an escalating conflict in the volatile region.

In the wake of Iran’s massive attack on Israel and Israel’s decision to deploy more troops to battle Hezbollah in Lebanon, tensions have soared to new heights, with no signs of de-escalation despite global calls for peace.

The escalating conflict sent oil prices surging, with Brent futures climbing $1.94 (2.6%) to $75.50 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude jumping $2.02 (2.9%) to $71.85.

In the early hours of Wednesday, Iran declared that its missile attack on Israel was over unless provoked, but the geopolitical situation remained incredibly tense.

Tamas Varga, a representative from oil broker PVM, pointed out that Israel or the U.S. might retaliate by inflicting massive damage to Iran’s oil facilities, a move that could result in a sharp increase in oil prices.

The conflict reached a fever pitch as the Israeli military deployed ground forces, including infantry and armored units, to southern Lebanon, escalating the conflict with Iran-backed Hezbollah.

Amid mounting international pressure for a ceasefire, the United Nations Security Council convened an emergency meeting to address the crisis in the Middle East, while the European Union urged an immediate end to hostilities.

Iran’s oil production soared to a six-year high in August, hitting 3.7 million barrels per day (bpd), according to ANZ analysts.

Capital Economics warned that any significant escalation by Iran could potentially draw the United States into the conflict, and that although Iran accounts for just four percent of global oil output, the key concern will be whether Saudi Arabia increases its production if Iranian supplies are disrupted.

While the world kept a wary eye on the conflict, a panel of ministers from the OPEC+ alliance—which includes Russia—gathered for a meeting on Wednesday to assess the oil market, with analysts expecting no changes in policy.

The OPEC+ group is slated to raise its output by 180,000 bpd monthly starting in December. ANZ analysts noted that any indication that the proposed production hikes would proceed as planned could potentially counterbalance concerns over supply disruptions in the Middle East.

Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, Saudi Arabia’s oil minister expressed concern that oil prices could plummet to as low as $50 per barrel if OPEC+ members fail to adhere to the agreed production limits, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal, citing anonymous delegates from the oil-producing group.