One Year On! Tinubu’s presidency reaps harsh harvest for Nigerians’ food security

Onome Amuge

At the dawn of his presidency, Bola Tinubu, wielding the torch of his renewed hope mantra, promised to transform the agricultural sector into a fertile future of enhanced food security, economic diversification, and freedom from over-reliance on petroleum.

In a decisive move to shore up the country’s food security, the president rebranded the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development to the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security.

Tinubu also wasted no time in launching an all-out crusade against the issue of food affordability in Nigeria, declaring a state of emergency barely two months into his tenure. The president noted that while an abundance of foodstuffs have been produced, exorbitant prices have left many Nigerians unable to access these staples, choking the nation’s agricultural value chain.

As a direct and immediate response to the food crisis in the country, the Nigerian leader introduced a number of initiatives to reverse the food inflationary trend and guarantee future uninterrupted supplies of affordable foods to ordinary Nigerians. This, he explained,is in line with his administration’s position on ensuring that the most vulnerable are supported.

In the immediate term, the president said his administration intended to deploy some savings from the fuel subsidy removal into the agricultural sector focusing on revamping the agricultural sector, including the immediate release of fertilisers and grains to farmers and households to mitigate the effects of the subsidy removal, establishment of the  national commodity board that will review and continuously assess food prices as well as maintain a strategic food reserve that will be used as a price stabilisation mechanism for critical grains and other food items, amongst other initiatives.

Sadly, despite the initiatives highlighted  by the president to reform the agricultural sector, reports show that Nigeria’s agricultural growth rate has taken a nosedive, falling to 0.18 percent in the first quarter of 2024. The GDP report of Nigeria’s first quarter of 2024 reveals a sector in distress as the agricultural growth rate witnessed a  1.9 percent decline on a quarter-on-quarter basis from the previous quarter’s 2.1 percent growth, tumbling dangerously close to negative growth.

Under the merciless grip of food price inflation, Nigerians find themselves struggling to navigate a treacherous economic landscape, as government policies and a steep cost of living combine to form a daunting challenge for the nation’s food-seeking citizens. Amidst rising petrol prices, soaring electricity tariffs, and exorbitant transportation costs, the path to affordable food seems shrouded in uncertainty, as food prices soar skyward like a rocket launched from the heart of economic uncertainty.

The National Bureau of Statistics also presented a sobering reality check as the country’s food inflation rate jumped to 40.5 percent in April 2024, the highest figure yet recorded in the nation’s history.

According to stakeholders in the agriculture sector, President Tinubu’s laudable efforts to bolster Nigeria’s food production and improve food security at the onset of his administration have failed to bear fruit.

While President Tinubu had bolstered his administration’s food production and security with a bold declaration of emergency and policies aimed to ramp up output, the stakeholders bemoan that the ensuing year was marked by a relentless escalation in food prices, while the issue of food insufficiency marched on.

The stakeholders further ascribed the uptick in food prices to the dire consequences of removing fuel subsidies, as this economic move sent ripple effects throughout the entire economy. Every aspect of the market felt the shockwave, as the once-subsidised fuel prices skyrocketed, inflating the cost of production and, subsequently, the prices of food items. Reports also showed that Investors over the years have become lackluster in investing in the agriculture industry, as they no longer see any returns on investment in the sector.

Reports also show that the combination of unfavorable policies, rampant insecurity, and economic downturn has cast a long shadow over the sector , leading to investors losing interest  in investing in the sector.

Commenting on the nation’s agricultural landscape under President Tinubu’s one year administration, renowned economist Bismark Rewane sounded the alarm bells over the worrisome escalation in food prices, especially the  300 percent  increase in the cost of a single bag of tomatoes in the span of a year. Rewane, whose insights are highly sought after as a member of the Presidential Economic Coordination Council, highlighted the detrimental impact of these price hikes on the general population, particularly those already grappling with financial instability.

The managing director and chief executive officer of Financial Derivatives Company Limited, also underscored the dire consequences of the rising food inflation, which has exacerbated the financial hardships of the citizens and cast a bleak shadow over the country’s economic future.

Rewane said: “How does this affect you? In Inie and Jeffrey, a bag of rice cost N35,000 last year; today, it’s N80,000, an increase of 129 per cent. Garri was N28,000 last year; it’s now N50,000. Beans were 30,000 last year; now, it’s N95,000, up by 217 per cent. A loaf of bread was N900; now it’s N1,600. A tuber of yam was N2,000; now it’s N10,500. The big problem is tomatoes: last year, N40,000 per bag; now it’s N150,000.”

The Lagos Chamber of Commerce of Industry (LCCI), in its assessment of the agriculture sector in Tinubu’s one year in office, observed that the sector was impacted mainly by insecurity, fuel subsidy removal, and consistent exchange rate depreciation, which increased the cost of fertiliser and other input costs.

LCCI noted further that some parts of the country recorded the worst flooding in history in the last quarter of 2023, significantly affecting crops such as rice, maize, and soybeans. It added that the economic conditions have also been difficult for livestock producers and animals suffering from the high feed cost, herder-farmer crisis

The chamber, in a statement signed by Chinyere Almona,the director-general,alluded to the sluggish start of each new year, raising optimism that the agric sector is expected to pick up in subsequent quarters.

Kabir Ibrahim,national president of the All Farmers Association of Nigeria (AFAN), acknowledged the obstacles littering President Tinubu’s path as he sought to resuscitate the country’s flagging food system. Ibrahim revealed that the challenges confronting the nation’s agriculture sector were so severe that the president felt compelled to issue an urgent declaration of a state of emergency on food security, an act designed to galvanise the government into swift and decisive action.

While expressing cautious optimism in the government’s ability to tackle the food security crisis, Ibrahim pointed out that it would be foolish to ignore the significant strides that still needed to be made. He concluded that the administration was still a work in progress, and, as with any new undertaking, it would require time to bear fruit.

The AFAN president remarked, “Nigeria is a very big country and the challenges ranging from insecurity, flooding and weak infrastructure, all these will need a lot more time than a mere one year to begin to see results.”

On what needs to be done differently in the sector going forward, Ibrahim suggested that the Tinubu administration should tackle the issue on a ‘regional-staple’ basis whereby the staples in particular regions will be concentrated on for maximum impact.

On his part, Africanfarmer Mogaji an Agribusiness Strategist and entrepreneur noted that President Tinubu’s willingness to tackle the issue of food security head-on was commendable, yet his administration seemed to be failing to capitalise on the abundant low hanging fruits and opportunities that could turn the tide of the country’s food system in short order.

The president, he explained, possesses a rare opportunity to overhaul Nigeria’s food challenges with expediency and vigour, a task that could be accomplished in as little as five months if he were to assemble a team of equally zealous players in the halls of government and beyond.

“I would say that in spite of the big opportunities in this one year, I will score him in terms of low hanging fruits and what the government has been able to tap into in the low hanging fruits. The government has taken 30 percent of the opportunity available to them,” he said.

Mogagi further recommended a shift in focus from the ministry of agriculture itself, which he deemed an outdated relic, towards the necessary overhaul of its constituent agencies. In his view, the minister’s task was not simply to preside over the current bureaucratic state but to breathe new life into its structure, by assembling a team of capable visionaries unshackled by tradition and unafraid to embrace the opportunities that lay ahead.

He stated further, “I believe in the Minister of Agriculture, as an administrator who is calm and experienced but with all the parastatals working with him I don’t have full confidence in them working together. We need more of the parastatal under the value chain of agriculture in the Water Resources, Finance we need those people to work together.”

Casting his sights on the year ahead, Mogaji made clear that his expectation is one of a shift towards a government and agricultural sector that embraces the promise of productivity.

He added, “I would like to see the river basins rehabilitated, I would like to see processing plants in rural communities, in spite of the insecurity challenges, there are huge opportunities.

“I would like to see Nigeria taking advantage of its comparative advantage like our ability for cassava and sweet potato. We have good rankings in sweet potato, pawpaw, and pineapple, but we have not paid attention to it.