Paddy rice yields to slump 2.6% as high fertiliser costs weigh on production- Report

Onome Amuge

The cultivation of paddy rice, a staple food in Nigeria, is anticipated to suffer a decline in production, with an estimated decrease of 2.6 percent, resulting in a total output of around 8.1 million metric tonnes.

The primary driver behind this projected decrease is the soaring cost of fertilisers, which has resulted in reduced crop yields and higher input costs for farmers, according to the AFEX  2024  Wet Season Crop Production report.

The leading commodities player in Africa projected the deteriorating state of paddy rice production in Nigeria at a hybrid event hosted recently in Abuja.

According to AFEX, the exorbitant price of fertilisers has not only diminished the yields of paddy rice but has also driven many farmers to switch to crops that require minimal fertilisers and offer higher profits, such as sesame and sorghum.

The company also stated that the pervasive insecurity in Nigeria’s rice-producing states has hampered farming activities and severe flooding has further worsened the issue.

With production volume and quality anticipated to suffer a marked decline, the supply of paddy rice is set to be severely impacted. This, in turn, is likely to manifest as increased prices for paddy rice, raising concerns over food security and affordability for Nigerians.

The AFEX report offers some insights into the factors impacting the commodities landscape, including production levels, price performance, and market outlook.

The report indicated that despite Nigeria’s significant agricultural potential, its producers are struggling to meet the rising demand for commodities. This is largely attributed to several factors, such as high input costs, lack of financing, the effects of climate change, including droughts and floods, and pest infestation.

Maize production in Nigeria is projected to experience a decline of 5.6 percent in the 2024/2025 season. The major drivers behind this reduction include an expected decrease in cultivated land caused by the rising cost of inputs, limited access to fertilisers, and unfavourable weather conditions expected to negatively affect crop yields.

This anticipated decline in production will likely result in a substantial surge in maize prices, a development that will be felt by both farmers and consumers alike as they struggle with the higher cost of one of Nigeria’s most important staple crops.

While the overall trend in commodity production points towards a decline, several commodities, including sorghum, ginger, cocoa, and sesame, have shown an upward trajectory.

The surge in production for these commodities can be largely attributed to an expansion in their cultivation, coupled with recovery efforts in response to last year’s price hikes.

The AFEX report foresees an increase in the price of ginger, with an expected rise of over 90 percent due to a combination of higher demand and the persistent effects of the fungal attack experienced in the previous season.

Therefore, the report highlighted the pressing need for policy interventions aimed at improving agricultural productivity and ensuring food security in Nigeria. This includes investment in modern agricultural practices, infrastructure, and agro-processing to address the challenges faced by farmers and consumers alike.

Speaking at the launch event, Akinyinka Akintunde, president/CEO of AFEX Nigeria,stated, “Each year, we conduct this extensive survey involving over 40,000 farmers to gain deeper insights into the challenges facing our agricultural sector. The findings of the survey underscore the urgent need for targeted interventions to enhance productivity, particularly in staples like maize and rice.

More importantly, the report helps us see the critical areas that need intervention and that is a plus. By addressing critical issues such as access to quality inputs, climate resilience, and market stability, we can significantly improve food security and empower our farmers, ultimately driving economic growth and sustainability in Nigeria.”