Preparing Africa for the future of aviation

Aviation has continued to adapt as demands are placed on it. In a globally connected world this industry has remained very dynamic and continues to evolve. At the 2024 Changi Aviation Summit in Singapore, Willie Walsh, director general of the International Air Transport Association, said: “I’m pleased to say that the progress and recovery of the industry continued strongly during 2023. Full year 2023 was at just over 94 percent of where we were in 2019. And that consisted of very strong performance in domestic markets, almost 4% ahead of 2019, with international markets lagging at just over 88 percent.”

One of the trends to prepare for is the rise of the Asian market in 2024. Aviation in Africa should take more than a cursory look into this trend. This is because experts project that the South Asian market will become the fastest growing commercial aviation market in the next two decades. It is expected to quadruple its capacity and boast an eight percent annual growth. Same applies to the air cargo segment which is reported to be experiencing a significant upward trend reaching about 8.3 percent surge in air cargo and reportedly the most substantial increase in almost two years. There are lessons for Africa to learn from the aviation industry in Asia.

Rising e-commerce demand as well as delivery of goods from China to western markets are reasons for the rise in cargo traffic. Seasonal events like the Chinese Lunar New Year are expected to contribute towards growing Asia’s aviation industry. These events are expected to boost air cargo and passenger demand.

The third largest and fastest growing aviation market is India. The industry is reported to have advanced with the assistance of the government through eased regulations, reduced taxes, and substantial investments in airport modernisation. Also, airlines are reported to be stimulating demand using such initiatives as fare discounts, regional connectivity, collaboration with tourism boards, and enhanced digital presence.

The combination of a rising middle class, fierce competition, and government support have been a major lever on which the Indian aviation market has risen. So, with tax breaks and subsidies, there have been very many investment opportunities in airports, airlines, MRO services, cargo, drone technology, and sustainability as well as other closely related sectors.

African countries need to put in the front burner the need to unlock tourism, trade, investment, and growth opportunities. There are peculiar travel restrictions facing Africans living in Africa that need to be addressed. This is necessary to ease intra-African resource mobility. African countries need to rise in their ranking on the AU’s Visa Openness Index. In a recent report on intra African connectivity capacity for December, 2023, (AFRAA/ OAG); count of fifth freedom was 19 percent, count of fourth freedom 40 percent and count of third freedom 41 percent.

The IATA director general stated further: “At IATA, we look at six major geographic regions when we’re assessing our economic performance, and we report on these on a monthly basis. That’s Africa, Asia-Pacific, Europe, Latin America, Middle East and North America. In 1990, African airlines contributed 2.2 percent of global aviation.  Asia-Pacific carriers were 19.7 percent, Europe 28 percent, Latin America and Caribbean 5.4 percent, Middle East carriers 2.4 percent and a lot has been written about what has happened in the Middle East. But significantly North American carriers 42 percent of the global markets.

Now, if we roll forward and look at 2019, Africa continued to be at 2.1 percent. But we saw significant growth in the Asia-Pacific region, reaching almost 35 percent of the global market in 2019. Europe remained pretty static at 27 percent, Latin America 5 percent, the Middle East had grown from 2.4 percent to 9.1 percent, and North American carriers had reduced from 42 percent to just over 22 percent.

To grow aviation in Africa will require collaboration by those in the industry as well as those in related industries. The director general has a wake-up call for Africa: “I think it is disappointing for us to reflect on the fact that Africa remains in the doldrums at just over 2%. I think the potential for growth in Africa is huge. But there has to be change to enable consumers in the African region to take advantage of the opportunities that aviation provides.” This change is possible.