The FREXIT wave now looming in Africa 

OPPORTUNITY FOR emancipation is knocking at Africa’s door now. But while this happens, it matters a great deal what Africa does in response as the continent has been lulled into some form of complacency over a fairly long period of time. Whether or not Africa seizes the moment will determine — to a significant extent — the future trajectory of the continent. The economic axiom that “the end justifies the means” becomes one of great relevance as the leaders of the current emancipation movement in Africa are not from the West’s politically correct camp where democracy is adjudged as the best form of government irrespective of whether or not it delivers any public goods in the form of social, infrastructural or economic development, or even if it is led by corrupt or inept individuals or despots as long as they pander to the whims of the West, which is why they are often regarded as “Western allies.” A period of over half a century-long wave of democracy across Africa is long enough to provide a good basis for impact assessment. 

So far, it appears like African countries practising Western democracy have only been made to feel good and belonging by the West while the same West continues to numb Africa’s sense of perception and critical thinking as it drains African countries’ resources to develop its own economy. It is no longer debatable that the economy of the West — particularly Western Europe — depends a lot on Africa’s resources. Abundant endowment of Africa with natural resources, particularly valuable minerals, has been serving as the major drivers of industrial development in the West. The manner of extraction of these minerals had to be by exploitation in order to keep the economy of the West going while Africa’s remains static or even retrogressing. This much has been publicly confirmed by Howard Nicholas, an associate professor in economics at the International Institute of Social Studies, Erasmus University of Rotterdam, The Netherlands, who is now retired. While Western politicians may openly disagree or issue strong public disclaimers to fault this claim, they are privately admitting its veracity as Professor Nicholas had left no one in doubt that the West will not allow Africa to develop for purely selfish mercantilist interest. Continued dependence on platitudes from the West, including their claims on democracy could as well mean Africa’s continued exposure of itself to unquestionable exploitation. 

Sadly, for all the exploitation, Africa remains a major foreign aid-dependent continent, with the aid coming from the exploiters of its natural resources. Over the past couple of decades, Africa’s political leaders have been brutally murdered, governments have been violently toppled and stooges have been brazenly installed to run many African countries while their mineral resources were (and are still) being exploited. Promoters of Western democracy care less about democracy in Africa and care more about protecting their own interests in Africa. In retrospect, the reasons for the long periods of rule by many African leaders who defy democratic tenets are becoming clearer, especially when they are considered Western allies. The exit of many of them had either left behind a power vacuum or worse successors. Mobutu Sese Seko had a stable government while his Congolese countrymen got impoverished. Years of wars trailed his exit. Félix Houphouet-Boigny left a war-torn Côte d’Ivoire (Ivory Coast) behind when he died in office. Cameroon is presently embroiled in a civil war as the southwestern Ambazonian armed fighters are struggling against Paul Biya’s government that has been in power for over 40 years and marginalised their English-speaking region. Yet, 92-year old Biya remains in the good books of France while Cameroon remains in crisis and Biya reportedly still contemplating running for another term in office. 

Economy of the European Union (EU) is currently under threat from both endogenous and exogenous causes. Germany’s and France’s economies are the two largest economies in Western Europe, with France coming second after Germany. But now, Germany’s economy is cooling while France’s is threatened. While part of the seeds of Germany’s current economic misfortunes were sown during Angela Merkel’s era, more were sown only in the past five years. The economic doldrums Germany currently experiences are tied to its industrialisation emergencies, which have their roots in the energy crisis. Angela Merkel’s decision to terminate the country’s nuclear energy project has severely negatively affected energy supplies and costs in Germany. More recently, the EU decision to pivot away from Russia’s gas supplies to Germany has added to the country’s energy problem. Germany’s auto industry — one of the largest globally — is a direct casualty, and so is the county’s economy. In a global competition, Germany is falling behind in the auto industry.

The threat to France’s economy seems more like from exogenous causes. France has long depended on its former colonial African countries for much of its economic survival and what appears like an economic edge in the EU. That seems likely to be on the downward spiral now as its hegemony is being challenged in those hitherto politically pliant and docile countries. Recently, the near exclusive access of France to Niger’s uranium was challenged when it became obvious that Niger has long been shortchanged on uranium pricing by France. And France is rattled as is observable from the various diplomatic shuttles of President Emmanuel Macron in the past couple of years. At this point, it can be inferred with a greater degree of validity and certitude that the EU’s economic decline will be as a result of Africa’s liberation. In particular, France’s impending fall will be as a result of the decision of its former colonies to end the so-called worn-out Françafrique, a misnomer in terminologies that had been used to delude former French colonial Africa for a long while. The end to the perpetual stowing away of 65 percent of Francophone Africa’s reserves in the European Central Bank is in sight as those countries have begun with the initial steps, though seemingly tottering for now. Some bold men are leading the way, insisting that France should withdraw its troops from their countries and permanently close its military bases within their territories. The subterfuge of provision of security while discreetly surveilling those countries may well be about to end. It is not only France. The US military bases may well begin to be closed as happened in Niger Republic about a year ago. Three countries have abandoned their membership of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and have formed their own Alliance of Sahel States (AES) to take care of their peculiar and common challenges. They have thus led the way to what may well become a cascading or chain reaction in the resistance against France’s influence.

Undoubtedly, France faces gradual decline of influence in Africa, and with it is that of its decline as an economic powerhouse in the EU. That will rock the economy of the EU as a whole when the chips are all down. Beginning with military alliances, France’s military withdrawal in Africa may well foreshadow an end to the skewed economic alliances that have subsisted for nearly 80 years in France’s favour and to Africa’s disadvantage. It began with Mali in 2022 when its military leaders — led by Assimi Goita — ordered the French troops to leave. This was followed by Burkina Faso and Niger in 2023 and Chad in 2024. In November, both Senegal and Chad announced plans to end France’s military presence in their countries. In December, Côte d’Ivoire told France to recall its troops in 2025, after a decades-long military presence, leaving only 80 soldiers to help in training Ivoirien soldiers. At the end of 2025, the French soldiers in Senegal, where it has had a military presence since 2011, are expected to leave, thus further reducing the military influence of the former colonial power. Soon, French military presence in Africa will be restricted to Gabon with 350 soldiers and Djibouti with 1,500 troops.

France, by proxy, controls millions of African countries and their economies. France’s loss of Côte d’Ivoire is a loss of another stronghold in the region, marking a new stage in military and strategic cooperation between Côte d’Ivoire and France, and a big blow to Paris. This is especially so as Alassane Ouattara — a France puppet, supported by France to alter the country’s constitution to run for a third term in office — now wants to run for the fourth time. This time, however, it seems like Ouattara is trying to change his winning strategy by pandering to his country’s prevalent anti-French sentiments and public opinion. One of such tactics could be the closure of French military bases. It means that even French stooges and rulers under quasi-democracy may soon begin to shed off the France baggage and begin to focus more on their countries’ independence from France’s influence as recently shown by Chad.

The seeming solidarity or infectious spread of anti-French sentiments among francophone countries in the past three years cannot be ignored. It must have been informed by some underlying discontent which France will definitely find difficult to contain. In a symbolic move in 2023, Mali, for instance, downgraded French from an official language to a working language and replaced it with 13 local languages elevated as official alternatives. In a desperate attempt to galvanise or strengthen the francophone countries’ alliances even beyond Africa, Macron has been relentless. However, he seems to have been faced with hurdles, many of which will prove insurmountable. The French president used to be held in awe by francophone African countries. Not anymore. Between 2017 and 2024, Emmanuel Macron has experienced direct confrontations or has been openly snubbed at one time or another. During Macron’s visit to Ouagadougou in 2017, his host president, Roch Marc Kaboré, walked off the stage in protest against Macron’s joke that Kaboré considered objectionable. In March 2023, during a joint press conference in Kinshasa, President Félix Tshisekedi rebuked Macron and told him to talk to him like a president of equal status. The DR Congo’s president reminded Macron to respect Africans. To Macron, Tshisekedi said: “Look at us differently by respecting us, and not always with a paternalistic look. Françafrique no longer exists.” With that statement, no one needs to be in doubt that the influence of France is waning and that the traditional Françafrique is now obsolete. In Paris, last October, the same Tshisekedi walked out on Macron over differences on the latter’s handling of the diplomatic issues concerning the Rwanda-DR Congo’s conflicts. Tshisekedi’s walk-out nearly overshadowed the summit of French speaking countries worldwide as he protested Macron’s opening speech for failing to mention the war in eastern Congo. He therefore boycotted the summit’s heads of state retreat, in what became an embarrassing moment for French diplomacy. Tshisekedi also skipped a luncheon organised by Louise Mushikiwabo, the head of the Organisation of Francophone Countries during the summit. 

The boldness of the military rulers of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger in dumping the ECOWAS and forming the AES is a major shift in emphasis on the influence of France in the West African subregion. As the AES figures out its own currency and opts out of the CFA zone, chances are that the CFA economy and the relevance of the European Central Bank in the subregion will be diminishing, particularly as more francophone countries are emboldened to leave the CFA zone. The desperation of France to use Nigeria to destabilise Niger and remove the new military ruler after the July 2023 coup that toppled Mohamed Bazoum is instructive. Rather than weaken Niger, it strengthened its resolve to pull further away from France and drove a diplomatic wedge between the unwitting stooge of France — the new president of Nigeria — and the stubbornly determined new military ruler of Niger. It further expedited the splintering away of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger from the ECOWAS, thus reducing its membership in size and economy and marking the beginning of what can be regarded as a wave of “FREXIT” in Africa as this is already spreading from the West to Central Africa with Chad’s ending of military alliances with France. For France, this could very well be the beginning of the end of its political and economic influence in Africa and the diminution of its economic status in the EU. And, really, after decades of plundering from Africa, is it not yet time for Frexit?

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