Trends, outlook, and evolution in aviation 

The Airports Council International (ACI) World and the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) released, in January 2025, a joint Passenger Traffic Report, Trends, and Outlook offering insights into the evolving air transport landscape.

In the long-term, the report points out, the global passenger market dynamic is expected to shift, transitioning from advanced economies towards emerging and developing economies. This expected dynamic would lead to changes in the composition of the top 20 passenger markets (ACI World) and routes (ICAO), with countries in the Asia-Pacific and Middle East region gaining a more visible presence. This is a wake up call for Africa and the aviation sector to expand the aviation sector and its contribution to the economic growth of their countries.

The key highlights in the report are: In 2024, global passenger traffic is expected to surpass pre-pandemic levels, reaching 9.5 billion passengers (104% of 2019 levels). Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) are expected to reach 8.8 trillion (101% of 2019 levels). This speaks to a widening market for air travel in spite of the headwinds faced by the industry. Total demand is measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs).

Looking ahead, to 2030, global passenger traffic is forecast to exceed 12 billion, driven by growth in international markets, particularly in the Asia-Pacific and Middle East regions. For 2042, global passenger traffic is projected to reach 19.5 billion, representing a twofold increase compared to the levels recorded in 2024. By 2050, global passenger traffic is projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.6 percent to reach 244 percent of 2019 levels, driven by strong growth in emerging markets. RPK is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.2 percent, reaching 284 percent of 2019 levels by 2050.

Looking further ahead into 2052, the largest markets will include China, the United States, India, and Indonesia. Asia-Pacific and Middle Eastern markets will show a strong presence in global air travel such that by 2052, domestic routes in China/Mongolia, North America, and Southwest Asia, along with long-haul connections between Asia, the Middle East, and Europe will dominate the top 20 global routes.

The report had a cautious view on the outlook in the medium – to long – term. Though there have been positive macroeconomic developments, such as easing inflationary pressures, yet due to escalating geopolitical conflicts, persistent labour market bottlenecks, and constraints on aircraft deliveries caution is advised. This is more so in view of the gradual recovery of international passengers and the return to profitability for airlines that signal positive momentum; yet travel costs remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels, and uncertainty surrounding global trade policies continues to grow. It is projected that, by 2044, RPK will reach 224 percent of the 2024 level (ICAO), while total passenger numbers will be 205 percent of 2024 levels, effectively doubling the volume of 2024.

Factors that will impact air transport demand include such upside factors as growth in world economy, easing inflationary pressure, growth in global trade, surge in international travel world wide, stabilisation of jet fuel prices, and, airline industry returning to profitability. These are sources of opportunity that planners in aviation in Africa should not lose sight of.

Downside risks are such factors as escalating geopolitical tensions, bottlenecks in the labour market, and constraints on aircraft delivery. These, while posing threats for air transport even in Africa, also contain opportunities to be explored.

The horizon looks good for aviation across the globe and the continent must go to work to expand the travel and tourism market in Africa.

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