Trump’s war, Trump’s tariffs, and a Trump crash!

ANTHONY KILA

Anthony Kila is a Jean Monnet professor of Strategy and Development. He is currently Institute Director at the Commonwealth Institute of Advanced and Professional Studies, CIAPS, Lagos, Nigeria. He is a regular commentator on the BBC and he works with various organisations on International Development projects across Europe, Africa and the USA. He tweets @anthonykila, and can be reached at anthonykila@ciaps.org 

As we approached the second week of April 2025, I doubt anyone could reasonably argue that President Donald Trump is not the man of the moment, and this recognition extends across the globe. Please let me know if you can think of any public figure who is more relevant to public discourse at this point in our lives, anywhere in the world where money is spent, news is followed, and deals are made.

It is not excessive to call Donald a living legend. However, I must clarify that beyond the known dichotomy of what is factual and what is imagined, the term “legend” does not necessarily carry any moral judgment regarding a character or a personality’s deeds. History and literature are replete with legends whose claims to fame stem from committing evil or foolish acts; the tale of King Midas comes to mind: a story about a king consumed by his greed. Adolf Hitler, too, was a legend.

In under 100 days in office, Donald Trump declared war on nearly all the countries he could think of, including those that might not immediately come to mind for most of us mere mortals.

President Donald Trump’s casus belli (as we are taught to say in international law) is that the rest of the world has been taking advantage of the USA by selling more to it and buying less from it. As the man himself puts it, referring to the EU, “The European Union has been very, very bad to us, they don’t take our cars, like Japan in that sense, they don’t take our agricultural product. They don’t take anything practically,”

However hard one might try, it is difficult not to remember that Mr Trump is one of fewer than ten political figures in the world who sells merchandise bearing his name and ideas in the USA but produces it outside his beloved and mistreated country. I wonder what President Trump thinks of Mr. Trump and vice versa. How much would you pay to see the two debate each other, perhaps with Elon Musk as a moderator and Peter Navarro as the timekeeper?

The Trump administration’s war to address the injustice that the world has inflicted upon America is, however, not a war of guns and boots. Instead, it is a tariff war. To avenge the tort done to his country and restore its honour, President Trump has decided to impose tariffs that will make trading with the USA more expensive, and he has executed this war in a way that confuses and scares the market. For those in the main street who produce, sell and buy, the fear is the cost of producing, selling and buying. For those on Wall Street and in financial markets across the globe, the concern is about certainty. Those who deal in money and investments are not sure if the tariffs will stay or go; they are not sure how much the tariffs will be in the end, as there is scope for negotiation and retaliations. In fear and doubt, markets around the world came tumbling.

In the USA, the Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a decline of over nine percent, while the Nasdaq Composite entered bear market territory with an 11 percent drop. The FTSE 100 in London declined by 11 percent, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index plummeted by 13.7 percent, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 recorded a single-day loss of 12.4 percent, its worst performance since October 1987. The Johannesburg Top-40 index experienced a 3.3 percent decline, and the Nigerian Exchange’s All Share Index (ASI) decreased by 1.23 percent, its biggest single-day decline this month.

The shock and confusion from the Trump War waged through the Trump Tariffs have led to the Trump Crash.

It is hard to tell what is more intriguing: that President Trump is doing what candidate Trump promised or threatened to do, that people thought he would not do it at all, or that they thought he would not do it with this intensity and in such a chaotic way?

Yes, say what you will, the candidate, Donald Trump, was very clear about his fascination with tariffs. In fact, his love for tariffs dates back to the 1980s when he expressed his thoughts to Larry King and Oprah Winfrey, stating: “The fact is, you don’t have free trade. We think of it as free trade, but you do not currently have free trade,” and that “A lot of people are tired of watching other countries ripping off the United States.”

In a way, Trump’s fascination with the Trump tariffs and the war he is waging with them, which is leading to the Trump crash, resembles a crusade — an ideological passion that fuels those who believe in a cause. Trump cannot perceive the Trump crash as serious enough to halt because he views it as a necessary pain that must be endured, a sacrifice to pay for a better world. Those who try to reason with Donald Trump on his tariffs are wasting their time. Only two things can stop Trump: one will be costly for Americans, and the other will be painful for Trump.

One option is to call Trump’s bluff by creating an alternative market to the American market. It does not have to be one market that will replace the American market; it could be various global markets. To do this, deliberate attempts must be made to foster trade, production, and consumption through financial and legislative interventions. Even American businesses will relocate to countries and markets that will allow them to produce, buy and sell with ease and without the shadows of Trump’s tariffs, war or crash. This will, however, hurt Americans as it will lead to massive loss of jobs at home and influence abroad.

Another option is to stop Trump. American businesses, politicians (in and out of elective offices), citizens and the courts can stop Trump. He will resist as much as he can, but no one man can bend the will of an informed, angry and pained nation. The Donald Trump we know will argue that there is a conspiracy that is not allowing him to do what is great for America and that the whole world is wrong, but he is right. He will insult many, but deep down, he would be glad he has been stopped, and he will keep talking to his devotees, promising them he will do it one day.

Interestingly and contrary to how a superficial look makes it appear to many, President Trump is stronger outside America than inside America. The rest of the world needs the American market more than the USA needs them. Our consideration next time will start from this strong position President Trump is acting from.

Join me if you can @anthonykila to continue these conversations.

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