Trump’s war, Trump’s tariffs, and a Trump crash! (2)

ANTHONY KILA

Anthony Kila is a Jean Monnet professor of Strategy and Development. He is currently Institute Director at the Commonwealth Institute of Advanced and Professional Studies, CIAPS, Lagos, Nigeria. He is a regular commentator on the BBC and he works with various organisations on International Development projects across Europe, Africa and the USA. He tweets @anthonykila, and can be reached at anthonykila@ciaps.org 

Glossary: 

Trump War: A conflict unilaterally initiated by President Donald Trump in April 2025 against historical and strategic allies, major trading partners, and generally overlooked, even uninhabited locations such as Heard Island and the McDonald Islands. However, this was not a war of boots and tanks; it was merely a trade war declared by imposing tariffs that cost over $7 trillion in the US markets in less than three days alone. 

The Trump Tariff: A series of tariffs introduced by President Donald Trump, consisting of a universal 10 percent import tariff on all goods entering the United States, along with higher targeted tariffs for specific countries and products. China received particularly special treatment. The last time America gave the world a similar quiver by imposing such a barrage of tariffs was in 1930 with the Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act. We explored that story in earlier sections titled “A Short American Tariff Story.” The 2025 tariffs represented a dramatic shift towards economic nationalism and protectionism, central to Trump’s policy philosophy. This move also compelled many countries to plan or execute retaliatory measures against the Trump-led USA and to consider alternative trading routes. 

The Trump Crash (also called the Trump recession) is a peculiar type of global financial crisis that emerged following the implementation of the Trump Tariffs. One distinctive feature of the Trump Crash is that it plunged an otherwise functioning market into chaos due to its lack of transparency and uncertainty. Another is that the Trump Crash rattled not just the stock markets but also US bond rates, sending them in the opposite direction they ought to be moving to during stock market declines. It is also uniquely a Trump crash because the market soared when Mr Trump announced a pause. Additionally, it led many to suspect a deliberate act of destruction aimed at facilitating some form of insider trading. However, I do not belong to such a group: I suspect inanity more than mischievousness, although one condition does not exclude the other.

The Trump Blink: This describes a reversal of policies after a series of dramatic and repeated declarations that Trump tariffs will remain unchanged despite the ongoing Trump crash because the Trump war is a battle that must be won; people just had to stay “cool” and not panic. In a rare display of uncharacteristic sincerity, Mr. Trump admitted on camera that he watched the bond market sliding into a crash and wimped out of his plan. His recklessness, framed as assertiveness, gave way to prudence that smelt of a weakness. Trump must be Trump, though, and as anticipated here, he justified his retreat by blaming others for being “a little bit yippy, a little bit afraid.” In Lagos, we comment on such events and sentiments by reminding individuals like Trump that “the bond market is not your mate. ” 

In the first part of the essay, I opined that “Trump cannot perceive the Trump crash as serious enough to halt because he views it as a necessary pain that must be endured, a sacrifice to pay for a better world. Those who try to reason with Donald Trump on his tariffs are wasting their time”.

Only two factors can stop Trump: external pressure, which may be costly for Americans, and internal pressure, which would be painful for him. It seems that both pressures are being applied simultaneously and are yielding tangible results, as Trump is clearly blinking by reversing, suspending, and exempting. It should be noted that he is doing so without China moving an inch to hug, let alone kiss him anywhere.

Externally, countries around the globe are reacting to Trump’s trade wars, tariffs, and crashes by bolstering their productive capacities, exploring alternative trade routes, and, importantly, reclassifying the USA from being a cornerstone of global finance and the world’s bank – whose currency is widely used for transactions and in which many invest – to a nation to approach with caution. China stands alone in its own category, but the responses of Canada, the UK, and the EU deserve examination, and we will soon be engaging in that analysis.

Internally, major American corporations and business leaders with access to Mar-a-Lago — whose voices are weighed, not counted — are privately negotiating and quietly issuing threats (public insults, in the case of Elon Musk). They are achieving results, as demonstrated by the recent exemptions of smartphones, computers, and other electronic devices from “reciprocal” tariffs, including the 125 percent levies imposed on Chinese imports. Yes, that same “disrespectful China.” Cheers to all those who confuse being a crass, shallow-thinking, reckless bully with being a strong, visionary leader. 

In the USA, the media is warning of the potential dangers ahead for America, chronicling those whose moral reputations and intellectual assets are deteriorating by defending the actions of a man who does not deal in the currency of consistency. The opposition, composed of Democrats still recovering from the post-Trump defeat disorder and even some Republicans who are currently Trump-trapped, is beginning to find their voices. 

Dangerously for the USA and the rest of the world, though, Donald Trump is ahead in messaging; he has fraudulently made many believe his nonsensical view about tariffs comes across as sensible and even fair. The big audience, composed of voters and other uninformed commentators, thinks America is somewhat truly shortchanged. I have heard some people naively talk about national interest. Here is my response: In the hands of merchants and tyrants, national interest is the opiate for the masses used for justifying incompetence and masquerading atrocities.

Those few or many left with clarity of mind and courage of voice need to explain to the rest of the world that the carpenter who makes and sells chairs or a dentist who treats teeth has no reasonable reason to feel short-changed simply because they buy and consume food every day, while the food sellers buy chairs and fix their teeth only occasionally. It is called “exchange for value”, a principle older than the oldest profession in the world. The sooner this is explained, the better for all because there is an open secret that Donald Trump is keeping from his devotees, which is that the USA is in surplus regarding strategic and leading-edge expensive services.

Emphasis has been placed on goods, but the reality is that the USA holds a surplus with most of its allies and trade partners regarding leading-edge technologies like cloud computing and artificial intelligence semiconductors. It is difficult to determine whether this arises from ignorance or mischief, but it appears that President Trump is unaware that America exerts control over media and information in many parts of the world through Google, Wikipedia, social media (Facebook, X, YouTube), and even mainstream media. Who will inform those Americans feeling short-changed that the soft power stemming from having their currency as the most widely used currency globally and controlling information and technology is inestimable?

Join me if you can @anthonykila to continue these conversations.

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