UK’s migrant crisis and Africa’s population prospects 

A GLOBAL RESET IN the world’s population is underway. Painfully, it seems inevitable, especially when considered in the context of events that are reshaping the world of our time. Much of the changes associated with the current trends in migration will be irreversible. Expect many Asians to become American or Canadian citizens, many Africans to become British or French citizens or many Arabs to become German citizens permanently. Although migration as a phenomenon is as old as mankind in history and many human landraces have undergone tremendous dilutions over the centuries of coexistence, the forms and the shape it takes now are somehow different in a variety of ways, particularly considering the speed, volume, frequency and causative factors. Migrant classification could be broadly divided now, based on existential issues that serve as triggers. There are political migrants who have to flee their own countries in search of asylum and safety elsewhere to places where they mostly become permanent residents.

Many migrate on health grounds, either seeking periodic medical attention or permanently out there for health surveillance. In times of epidemics, the restrictions of movement sometimes fail and people trying to avoid catching such epidemics  sometimes devise means of escaping to safe zones. War victims have had to be relocated as refugees as had happened to many Iraqis and Syrians now living in Europe or Somalis now in Minnesota in the US. Climate change and adverse environmental events — like droughts and famines — had led to a large population of Ethiopians as refugees in the Scandinavian countries. Economic downturn, which is causing people to be under pressure to survive, has led to an insidious rise in the number of refugees from Africa now living in Europe, Asia, Oceania and North America. Indisputably, human capital has provided a leeway for the migration of hundreds of thousands of professionals drifting across the Atlantic and to the northern hemisphere from Africa. Many migrants in pursuit of career fulfilment have made their marks in research, sports, professions and academia. Apart from causing the phenomenon regarded as “brain drain” for Africa, there is also the “brawn drown,” involving many daring young men and women desperately but illegally seeking to enter some developed countries in their quest for better livelihood opportunities and social security elsewhere. They mostly qualify for menial and artisanal jobs in their intended destinations. Because of how they try to gain entry, many of them drown in the Mediterranean while attempting to cross with dinghy boats.

Effects of magnetic forces drawing migrants  to the Western countries  from Africa, Asia and Latin America are not about to diminish. Rather, they appear to be getting even stronger and the destination countries become more alluring, particularly because of the widening gap between the economies of the developed countries and slowly developing countries, a description which better explains the status of most African countries. With these, every action tends to elicit an equal and opposite reaction. While the migrants from the countries of origin increase in number every passing year, there is also a pathetic increase in resentment, intolerance and violence against them by individuals or groups that question their growing presence in such countries. The negative treatments meted out to those migrants are done irrespective of immigration status in some cases. For an appreciable period in the recent years, immigration has become a hot button political issue. Because the decisions of certain politicians and government officials to let in migrants sometimes run contrary to the desires of many citizens, migration-related issues now form part of the determinants of who gets to high offices in the governance of many developed countries nowadays. In the buildup to next November election in the US, immigration has become a major issue as Donald J. Trump, the Republican front runner, accuses the incumbent Democrats regime and its leader, President Joe Biden, of knowingly allowing illegal immigrants in their millions into the US through the southern border with Mexico. 

In the UK, a recent local tragedy involving the fatal stabbing of three young girls at a dance class in the seaside town of Southport, north of England, has spurred sustained weeklong riotous protests, the worst in more than ten years. The riots have imperilled thousands of lives, especially those of the immigrants. The attackers have made no distinction between legal and illegal immigrants, a reaction that is indicative of some deep-seated animosity towards the immigrant segment of the population. These riots masked the underlying causes of a larger socio-political and economic crisis in the UK and elsewhere. 

Among the countries that are having trouble with immigrants who have got permanent resident permits or citizenship, there are those that seek to change their internal laws, rules and policies with the explanations of trying to enable their indigenous people enjoy some social benefits without fully comprehending the broader ramifications of the multiplier effects of such decisions. Take France. It passed a law in 2023, raising the retirement age from 62 to 64, with a requirement that the retiree has worked at least 43 years. The idea of raising the retirement age was not all that smooth sailing. It pitted the government against the workers, as unions have pledged to continue protesting against proposed changes, particularly the raising of retirement age from 62 to 64. Under French laws, the maximum weekly working time is 48 hours. In every 365 days that make a year, the average French worker has 52 Saturdays and 53 Sundays, leaving him with 260 working days. Subtracting 11 public holidays, he is left with 249 days of work.  

Difficult decisions are now being made in response to demographic shifts. According to Emmanuel Macron’s government, pushing back the pension age from 62 to 64 is vital in order to preserve France’s much-prized “share-out” system – which depends on a single fund that workers pay into and pensioners draw out of. As people live longer, the government is faced with difficult alternatives of either cutting the value of pensions, or increasing the contributions from those still working. Nearly three quarters of people seem opposed to both options, despite Macron’s arguments that France is merely aligning itself with what is now in vogue in every other European democracy, in which case most of them have pension ages even higher than the 64 years proposed for France. Population growth in Western Europe is now either infinitesimally small or in the negative in many countries. In 2022, the growth in the UK was -0.1 percent; in Italy, it was -0.3 percent and, in France, it was 0.3 percent of annual average for the same year, going by sources, including the World Bank. The implications of these are many, varied and conflicting, necessitating drastic but responsive policies that may or may not be popular among the people within the countries.

Clearly Europe’s demographic future is troubling and the various European countries have difficult but necessary decisions to make about how to populate their countries in the future. For its size, the demographic experience in Germany, easily the most consequential in Europe’s economy, will be a better microcosm of Europe. Germany’s story is more interesting. Over 15 years, there have been fluctuations in population growth, tending towards the negative at some points. Between 2010 and 2012, Germany actually experienced a -0.2 percent growth in population, with minimal increase to 0.9 percent in 2015, down again afterwards to 0.0 percent in 2021 and up again to 0.7 percent in 2022. Russia, an Eastern European country, had a 0.1 percent growth rate in 2022. Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, had already started to experience difficulties with its public pension system as the population was rapidly ageing. To boost the birth rate, the government embarked on an expansion of maternity and paternity benefits as well as childcare over the past decade. In addition, the decision made in 2015 by Chancellor Angela Merkel to allow over a million refugees —  mainly from war zones in Syria and Iraq — has tipped the demographics in a particular direction, as 792,131 babies were born in Germany in 2016, rising to seven percent over the preceding year, and easily becoming the highest number of babies born since 1996, according to Germany’s Federal Statistics Office.

Projections into the future populations of developed and less developed countries will depend a lot on the relative population growth rates. With the surge in migration from the global South to the global North, correct predictions may not follow linear extrapolation. Countries that topped the global economic charts decades ago until recently are now having trouble with population growth. Japan was the second largest economy after the US until China took over that slot some years ago. Since 2008, Japan’s population has been declining from a peak of 128 million to 125 million in 2022, essentially resulting from Japan’s declining birth rate. Fears being expressed now are that if this trend continues, Japan’s population is projected to decline to 63 million in 2100. Considering the closure of some housing estates, shopping malls and kindergarten schools because of shortage of people, Japan is in for an interesting future. While the dilemma of pension also applies to Japan in comparison to France, the immediate contrast is how Japan currently handles its own. 

Although Japan’s law requires companies to set the minimum retirement age at 60 years old, companies are mandated to allow employees wishing to work beyond 60 to continue working until 65. Some may even wish to go beyond that if they are fit enough. In Japan, however, immigration remains low. It is one of the lowest for any developed country, historically resulting from periods of self-imposed isolation, limited cultural assimilation and low integration of foreign nationals into mainstream Japanese society.

Any argument that the remoteness of Japan is responsible for the low immigrant rate could easily be faulted on the grounds of its internal policy of isolationism, for which the country remains a homogeneous population of rapidly ageing people. To make up for the labour shortage arising from ageing rapidly without commensurate replacement by birth or immigration, Japan has embarked upon vast use of robots, particularly humanoids, to play the roles of humans in the workplaces, restaurants, hospitals, supermarkets, airports and other public places. Without any hard evidence, it might be correct, however, that Japan’s population homogeneity is responsible in part for its relatively higher internal security, without terrorist attacks or squabbling with immigrants. It is important to point out that Japan’s population growth that entered negative in 2009 has remained firmly so, decreasing steadily to -0.4 percent in 2022. 

China, by comparison, has a very low immigrant population relative to the total population of 1.412 billion people in 2022. Even with the abolition of one-child policy and introduction of two-child policy, a bulk of the younger generation of Chinese appear uninterested in having a child or two children. In fact, many young married Chinese couples prefer not to have children. These will all together upset China’s demographic centre of gravity in the near future. Even now, the signs are beginning to manifest as the reluctance of younger families to have children enough to replace the ageing population is already sending distress signals to China’s pension system. The Chinese census of 2020 showed that China had 1,430,695 immigrants, dividing between 845,697 foreign nationals and 584,998 residents of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan. About 12,000 foreigners reportedly had permanent residency in China as of 2023, a tiny percentage when compared with the US, France and the UK.

The UK has reasons to worry. The country is currently walking a tightrope in terms of immigrant population. The population in 1964 was 54 million. In 2022, nearly 60 years after, the population only managed to climb up to 66.97 million. Yet, it is now getting overwhelmed by migrants year after year. In a desperate attempt to deal with the migrant surge, the UK government got many immigrants into a barge, a flagship part of the government’s plan to cut the cost of housing asylum seekers and deter dangerous Channel crossings by migrants. This decision was roundly criticised, especially as bacteria were found in the onboard water system. An immigration policy involving the UK and Rwanda Migration and Economic Development Partnership, proposed by the governments of Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak, entailed planned relocation of people identified by the UK as illegal immigrants or asylum seekers to Rwanda for processing, asylum and resettlement. It was not a guarantee that successful asylum seekers would leave Rwanda in the end. The new Labour Party Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, upon winning the 2024 general election, announced that the Rwanda plan would be cancelled and replaced by the Border Security Command. The Commonwealth burden still remains as migrants from many of the 53 other member countries still have their eyes on the UK. 

The outlook of most developed countries in the future must be very interesting. How the UK in particular and the US will continue to manage the increasing African immigrants is an area worth serious and urgent introspection as the trend may not cease or diminish. Handling the immigrant’s surge in a 243,610 km² UK landmass cannot take exactly the same form or strategy as that of the US that occupies 9.834 million km². These two countries need to urgently figure out and discuss on how to engage with African countries on migrations for mutual benefits. It is also up to African countries to put this issue on their front burners. There is much more to migration than what happens in African countries now. Their long term implications on the continent must not be ignored.

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