With summit, isolated Russia eyes African partners

RUSSIA HAS ONCE AGAIN convened a summit with Africa last week. The summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and African leaders – referred to as Second Russia-Africa Summit or Russia–Africa Economic and Humanitarian Forum for peace, security and development – was held at the Expo Forum in St. Petersburg on Thursday and Friday. This second summit was originally scheduled for October 2022 at the African Union headquarters in Addis Ababa but had to be postponed. That was three years after the first summit held on October 23 and 24, 2019, in Sochi, Russia. But, unlike the Sochi event, co-hosted by Putin and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, which drew 43 heads of state or government in attendance, last week’s event in St. Petersburg had a far lower turnout.

What could be described as Putin’s charm offensive, in his quest to extend Russia’s influence, strengthen ties with African countries and shore up African support, apparently experienced a setback in attendance. This was because only 17 heads of African state attendees were confirmed by the Kremlin which accused the US and its Western allies of applying “unprecedented pressure” on African countries in an effort to disrupt the summit. Apart from South Africa and Egypt that attended the St. Petersburg event, political leaders of many more countries were absent. Some, however, sent representatives and others did not. Putin’s confidence may have been misplaced and his probable sense that the continent as a whole is leaning toward Russia could have been mistaken at the Russia-Africa Summit. He may have miscalculated or misjudged the mood on this continent that is becoming increasingly important to his country’s geopolitical ambitions as he tries to reinforce Moscow’s position in Africa. Although most African leaders appear reticent on Russia, they nonetheless seem to have their strong reservations about the country.

Two prominent commentators on the Russia-Africa summit – incidentally from Kenya – criticised the summit for a number of reasons. While a Kenyan foreign affairs official reportedly called Putin’s decision “a stab on the back,” opposition politician Raila Odinga complained, saying that he did not “think that this moment in time is a good time for summits in Russia, because Russia is involved in a war, a conflict.” According to Odinga, “Africa needs to take a very firm stance on this issue. It’s a question of right and wrong. Therefore, my view is that we cannot be neutral in the place of aggression. You must take a stand one way or another.” But Putin seems unperturbed because of his quest for new partnerships, particularly in the continent of Africa. His foreign policy adviser, Yuri Ushakov, was quoted as saying that the summit was expected to pay attention to “an emphasis on our assistance to the national sovereign development of Africans, ensuring fair access to food, fertilisers, modern technologies and energy resources.”

For once, African leaders appear to have found their voice and are ready to be heard in the diplomatic community. Although the African leaders had access to food in mind as one of the issues to discuss in Russia, it was obvious they also wanted to tell Putin a few home truths. Despite Putin’s attempt to make a fuss about sending free grain to Africa, African leaders were more vociferous than before in their condemnation of the invasion of Ukraine by Russia as they had food security and Ukraine war high on their agenda. The depth of African apprehension about the consequences of the war was expressed, particularly on the rising prices of food. Specifically, African Union Commission chairman, Moussa Faki Mahamat, did not mince words while engaging with Putin and African leaders in St Petersburg, as he said emphatically that “this war must end. And it can only end on the basis of justice and reason.” He added that “the disruptions of energy and grain supplies must end immediately. The grain deal must be extended for the benefit of all the peoples of the world, Africans in particular.”     

While not overly critical of Russia, the African leaders voiced their criticisms of Putin’s pull out of the crucial grain deal and Russia’s targeting and attacking of Ukrainian ports. One of those vocal critics who was absent in the St. Petersburg summit is Kenyan President William Ruto whose government has been critical of Russia’s recent decision to renege on the Black Sea grain deal, a move described as a “stab in the back of global food security prices.” Last week’s decision by Russia to withdraw from an international grain deal not only created a big surprise for Africa, it was also criticised by the UN that warned that free grains to some African countries would not make up for Russia pulling out of the grain deal. Exactly how Putin intends to placate Africa on the grain deal termination and his refusal to heed Africa’s call for an end to Ukraine invasion will remain potentially contentious. The grain agreement was brokered by the United Nations and Turkey last year to allow the safe passage of agricultural goods through Ukraine’s ports in the Black Sea despite the war with Russia. Despite its limited reach, in the UN’s estimation, much of the nearly 33 million tonnes exported under the deal was adjudged to have helped reverse spiralling food prices by more than 20 percent.

In spite of what may look like tottering steps, African leaders want to play key roles and assert their relevance in the global diplomatic community. They seem to prefer “to be kingmakers, rather than be caught in another proxy war,” like the one raging between Russia and Ukraine. On June 16 and 17, representatives of six African countries visited both Ukraine and Russia in an effort to mediate in the war, although their proposals were largely discountenanced by both Ukraine and Russia. According to one observer, “the weakness of the mission is that Africa has not been able to resolve its own conflicts.” Although the mission may not have achieved any immediate success, it nonetheless presented an opportunity for Africa to discuss first-hand, some analysts observed, the effects of the war – especially on food security – on millions across Africa. On Friday, the African leaders pressed President Putin to move ahead with their peace plan to end the Ukraine war and to renew the grain deal it abandoned a week ago.

Putin is obviously betting big on Africa. It is assumed, however, that Africa’s goal in its relationship with Russia is to diversify economic and political relationships for maximum strategic benefit, while also looking for tangible results beyond Russia’s cosmetic pledges. Essentially, to be on a safer side, African leaders should treat with caution what Moscow describes as a Russia-African shared struggle against “forms of new colonialism imposed by the West.” This is a narrative that the Kremlin is using in rallying support in the continent behind its war effort in Ukraine. Yet, the relevance of Russia trade relations with Africa is such that Russia accounts for just one percent of foreign direct investment (FDI) that goes to Africa, according to data from fDi Intelligence. But, beyond Ukraine, the war footprint of Russia is spreading widely across Africa through its mercenaries.

Although Russia may deny, it is actively promoting crises in many countries of Africa and takes advantage of such crises to plunder the continent. It is also involved in subtle displacement of France’s influence, at least from its anti-West rhetorics. For instance, Putin’s quick condemnation of the coup d’etat in Niger on Wednesday last week is better taken with a pinch of salt. Preference for Russia and disdain for France has become consistent in protesters’ reactions after military takeovers in those countries. Like the jubilant crowds in Bamako and Ouagadougou after the military takeovers in Mali and Burkina Faso respectively, people were seen displaying Russian flags while some wrote inscriptions such as “a bas la France’’ on placards, meaning “down with France.” The coup in Niger has opened the door for Russia to exert its influence on the former French colony, a country that has been a key Western ally under the regime of the deposed President Bazoum. Supporters of the coup celebrated on the streets, waving Russian flag, chanting Russia, Russia. One placard read “vive les du Niger,” meaning “long live the soldiers of Niger.” The uranium-rich nation has been very important to France for its own energy security. Now, it may begin to serve the interest of Russia, as currently done in Sudan. However, the coup in Niger represents a significant opportunity for Russia’s Vladimir Putin to disrupt the relations between Niger and the US-led Western alliance and further spread Russia’s influence across the African continent.

Russia’s Wagner mercenaries have been deployed in some African states in an elaborate scheme to plunder for fortifying Russia against Western sanctions and to buttress Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine. Stories emanating from countries with the heavy presence of Wagner are distasteful, generally, because of the misconduct leading to the deaths of hundreds of Africans, many of which were innocent. The so-called rebellion of Wagner’s founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin, a few weeks ago, betrayed a hidden scheme with the knowledge of Putin. The same Prigozhin was reportedly spotted last week in St. Petersburg with an African dignitary on the sidelines of the Russia Africa summit on Thursday.

Wagner’s chief Yevgeny Prigozhin and Foreign Affairs Minister Sergey Lavrov have earlier hinted on continued operations of Wagner mercenaries in Africa. But who controls it now that Prigozhin has left Russia? Putin’s predilection for countries in turmoil, especially those that are back under military rule is noteworthy. It will not be surprising to hear of deployment of Wagner mercenaries into Niger Republic in coming months as done in Mali, for instance. At least, among those heads of governments in attendance during last week’s St. Petersburg summit was Captain Ibrahim Traoré, president of Burkina Faso’s transitional government, in his military uniform. The type of diplomacy with which Putin wants to capture African states as Russian captives is getting clearer. African countries have a choice on how to embark on diplomatic relations with Russia for good or for bad. It is therefore up to the countries themselves. Russia has exposed much of its styles and intentions. African countries now have a choice to make: to go with Russia or not to go. The choice is theirs.