World food prices mark second month of increase in April -FAO

Onome Amuge

The international food prices barometer, compiled by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), ticked upwards in April, propelled by an increase in meat prices and modest hikes in vegetable oil and cereal prices, despite declines in sugar and dairy markets.

The monthly FAO Food Price Index, which monitors the fluctuating fortunes of a wide spectrum of globally traded food commodities, inched up by a marginal 0.3 per cent in April, as compared to its previously established benchmark in March. However, when viewed over a longer horizon of one year, the index revealed a notable 9.6 per cent retreat from its levels in the corresponding month of the previous year.

The global wheat market underwent a delicate balancing act in April, as the FAO Cereal Price Index revealed a small 0.3 point (0.3 percent) increase from March, while still reflecting an 18.3 per cent year-on-year decline from April 2023. Despite mounting concerns over crop-damaging weather patterns potentially threatening the 2024 wheat harvests in key producers like the European Union, Russia, and the United States, global wheat export prices found respite from competitive market forces. 

The global maize market offered a stark contrast to wheat’s relative stability, as April saw export prices surge due to a complex interplay of heightened import demand, logistical challenges stemming from Ukraine’s infrastructure damages, and worrisome production forecasts in Brazil. The ripple effects of these factors were further compounded by a rise in global barley prices and a dip in sorghum prices, resulting in a delicate equilibrium in the global coarse grains market. Meanwhile, the FAO All Rice Price Index, a barometer of the international rice market, reflected a marginal decline of 1.8 per cent, predominantly influenced by a harvest-induced downturn in Indica rice quotations.

The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index reported a 0.3-point (0.3 percent) increase from March, hitting a thirteen-month high in the process. The delicate balance between higher sunflower and rapeseed oil prices and slightly lower palm and soyoil prices led to this marginal uptick, a reflection of the nuanced dynamics that underpin the international vegetable oil trade. Palm oil prices, on the other hand, displayed a downward trend in April, largely due to the confluence of factors such as seasonally high production outputs and subdued global import demand.

The global dairy market reflected a subtle shift in April, as the FAO Dairy Price Index dropped by 0.3 points (0.3 percent) from March, halting a six-month streak of steady increases. Despite this minor downturn, the index still remained 4.3 per cent below its April 2023 levels. International skim milk powder prices bore the brunt of the decline, largely attributed to a sluggish import demand for spot supplies amid ample exportable availability from major dairy producers in Western Europe.

Simultaneously, the global cheese market registered a minor dip in prices, largely influenced by the strengthening of the U.S dollar. This downward trend was counterbalanced by a steady surge in international butter prices, largely due to a combination of robust import demand and somewhat tighter butter inventories in Western Europe. However, whole milk powder prices bucked the trend, bouncing back modestly due to a confluence of factors, including an uptick in demand for medium-term supplies and a seasonally downward shift in milk production in the Oceania region.

Riding a wave of three consecutive monthly increases, the FAO Meat Price Index hit 116.3 points in April, a 1.9-point (1.6 percent) rise from March. The upward trajectory brought the index almost in line (0.4 percent) with its April 2023 levels. In the midst of this surge, international poultry meat prices escalated, spurred on by persistent import demand from Middle Eastern nations, despite the ongoing challenges posed by avian influenza outbreaks that have cast a shadow over poultry production. Pig meat prices declined marginally, held back by slack internal demand in Western Europe, coupled with the persistent lackluster performance of key importers, with China at the forefront of this trend.

The global sugar market witnessed a bearish run in April, as the FAO Sugar Price Index plummeted by 5.9 points (4.4 percent) from March, following in the footsteps of the previous month’s decline. Standing at 127.5 points, the index was a significant 14.7 percent below its levels in April 2023. The downward spiral in world sugar prices could be traced back to the improved global supply prospects, particularly the increased yields in India and Thailand, which provided a healthy surplus of the sweet commodity.

 Adding to the downward pressure on global sugar prices in April, the depreciation of the Brazilian real against the United States dollar rendered sugar exports from Brazil, the world’s leading sugar producer, less attractive in international markets. However, the overall decline was cushioned by rising crude oil prices and the commensurate increase in ethanol prices in Brazil