Onome Amuge
The anticipated public listing of the Dangote Refinery on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) in 2026 could propel the nation’s stock market capitalisation to over N200 trillion, more than doubling current levels, according to Bismarck Rewane, chief executive officer of Financial Derivatives Company.
Speaking at the 2026 Economic Outlook Summit of RCCG Christ Church in Lagos over the weekend, Rewane described the potential listing as a milestone for Nigeria’s capital markets, noting that the sheer scale and valuation of the refinery would deepen liquidity and elevate the NGX’s profile among emerging market bourses globally.
“We expect the Dangote Refinery to list. If it is listed at today’s valuations, we think it will increase stock market capitalisation from about N105 trillion to over N200 trillion. This will not only deepen market liquidity but also position the Nigerian Exchange as one of the largest in emerging markets in terms of size,” Rewane said.
The refinery, Africa’s largest, has long been viewed as a transformative asset for Nigeria’s industrial landscape. Analysts note that its potential public offering could attract both domestic and foreign investors, while signalling confidence in the country’s capital market infrastructure and regulatory framework.
Naira set for gradual weakening
While optimism surrounds the capital markets, Rewane cautioned that Nigeria’s currency may face renewed pressure over the medium term. He projected that the naira could depreciate to around N1,590 per dollar by the end of 2026, even as he anticipates some moderation in the US dollar’s strength relative to other global currencies.
“The US dollar is going to weaken because of various forces,” Rewane said, pointing to upcoming Federal Reserve meetings and policy signals. “Even with a weaker US dollar, we expect the naira to trend gradually lower next year, reflecting domestic pressures and the widening gap between official and parallel market rates,” he added.
Rewane highlighted that, although the naira remained relatively stable through 2025, the spread between official and parallel market rates has recently expanded to approximately N71, indicating emerging FX market tensions. Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) showed that the naira ended the previous week marginally stronger at N1,421.62 per dollar, up 45 kobo day-on-day, as external reserves crossed the $46 billion mark.
The summit also featured commentary from policymakers, including John Enoh, minister of State for Industry, Trade and Investment, who emphasised that structural reforms are beginning to lay the groundwork for sustainable economic growth.
“The government has laid the foundation for competitiveness and sustainable growth. At the heart of these reforms is the belief that Nigeria will grow sustainably when policy rewards production over consumption and long-term value creation over the short term,” Enoh said.
The minister acknowledged that Nigeria continues to face structural constraints, including heavy import dependence, low investment relative to GDP, and insufficient infrastructure to support industrialisation. However, he argued that reforms targeting predictability, stability, and fairness in the policy environment are beginning to yield tangible results.
“2026 must be a year of impact and outcomes: more jobs, stronger industries, increased trade, deeper investments, and renewed hope,” the minister said. He cited subsidy removals and the Nigerian Industrial Policy as evidence of a coordinated approach to reform, noting that the economy is gradually transitioning from shock absorption to consolidation.
Muda Yusuf, chief executive officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), provided a complementary perspective on Nigeria’s business landscape. He highlighted both opportunities and challenges for companies and entrepreneurs, urging workers to consider transitioning from salaried employment to self-employment or entrepreneurial ventures in response to economic realities.
“Some salary levels no longer reflect current economic conditions. Transitioning towards self-employment and entrepreneurship is essential if Nigerians are to capture the opportunities presented by ongoing reforms and industrial expansion,” Yusuf said.
Implications for investors
Market participants are watching the potential Dangote Refinery listing closely, with analysts saying it could become the single largest equity transaction in Nigeria’s history. Beyond sheer market capitalisation, the IPO is expected to boost liquidity, attract institutional investors, and provide a benchmark for large-scale industrial valuations in the country.
However, the forecast weakening of the naira could complicate foreign investor participation, particularly for those sensitive to currency volatility. Rewane noted that despite the expected depreciation, the economic and structural reforms underway could provide offsets in the form of stronger industrial output, fiscal consolidation, and more predictable policy execution.
Outlook
Rewane’s projections suggest that 2026 could be a landmark year for Nigeria’s capital markets, provided the Dangote Refinery listing materialises and macroeconomic stability is sustained. For investors, the period ahead is likely to reward those who combine selective stock-picking with careful currency risk management, particularly in sectors linked to industrial output, energy, and infrastructure development.
With policymakers and private sector leaders aligning on reforms and industrial growth, 2026 could mark a pivotal inflection point for Nigeria’s capital markets, even as macroeconomic and currency pressures require measured attention from investors and regulators alike.
