As Nigeria joins a growing list of African countries backing the rollout of ultra-low-cost smartphones, fresh concerns are emerging over whether existing telecom infrastructure can withstand the pressure of a surge in new users.
A recent analysis by network performance monitoring firm nPerf has warned that expanding access without a corresponding upgrade in network capacity could worsen congestion and ultimately undermine user experience. This concern is particularly relevant for Nigeria, where an estimated 54 percent of the population still lacks internet access despite years of digital expansion efforts.
The warning comes on the heels of an announcement at Mobile World Congress 2026, where the GSMA in collaboration with the Handset Affordability Coalition unveiled a plan to introduce $40 4G smartphones targeted at connecting millions of underserved users across Africa. While the initiative has been widely described as ambitious and potentially transformative, questions remain about the readiness of networks expected to support this influx.
Drawing from its 2025 performance data across Nigeria, Congo, and Ethiopia, nPerf reveals uneven current network capabilities.
In terms of speed, the findings reveal that all three countries continue to lag significantly behind global benchmarks, particularly those seen in Europe. Congo recorded the strongest overall performance, with average download speeds of 12.8 Mb/s and upload speeds of 6.26 Mb/s. Nigeria followed with download speeds of 9.97 Mb/s, while Ethiopia trailed at 6.73 Mb/s—levels that barely sustain uninterrupted standard-definition video streaming.
For prospective users of low-cost 4G smartphones, this underscores a critical point: affordability alone does not guarantee a functional digital experience. The quality and reliability of underlying network infrastructure will ultimately determine how effectively these devices can be used.
A deeper look beyond headline speeds reveals further disparities in real-world usage. Nigeria, for instance, leads the group in streaming performance with an index of 62.28 percent, suggesting that video playback is relatively stable. However, this advantage is offset by weak web browsing performance, which stands at just 27.36 percent. This limitation has broader implications, as it directly affects access to essential online services such as government portals, digital financial platforms, and e-commerce.
Congo presents a contrasting profile. While it boasts the lowest latency among the three countries at 123 milliseconds, an advantage for responsiveness it records the weakest streaming performance at 41.88 percent, indicating challenges in delivering consistent multimedia experiences.
Ethiopia, on the other hand, appears to face the most significant constraints. With latency reaching 258 milliseconds, more than double that of Congo, real-time applications such as video calls and interactive services become highly unstable. Although its browsing and streaming indices, at 35.52 percent and 49.89 percent respectively, fall within a mid-range bracket, the high latency significantly undermines overall usability.
nPerf notes that the success of the $40 smartphone initiative will depend heavily on how these structural weaknesses are addressed. The firm emphasises that increasing the number of connected users without strengthening network infrastructure risks creating bottlenecks that degrade service quality. However, it also points to a countervailing dynamic, as rising demand has historically driven telecom operators to scale up investments in capacity and coverage.
This demand-driven investment model appears to be central to the strategy of both the GSMA and the Handset Affordability Coalition, who are betting that broader access will stimulate further infrastructure development.
For Nigeria, the report identifies a clear priority area; improving web browsing performance. Addressing this gap will be critical to ensuring that new users can do more than just consume content, but also participate meaningfully in the digital economy.
Across the three markets analysed, the challenges differ, but the objective remains the same which is to ensure that expanded access translates into real, usable connectivity. The report added that without parallel improvements in network performance, the promise of affordable smartphones risks falling short, turning a well-intentioned inclusion effort into a frustrating user experience for millions.
