Onome Amuge
Africa’s ambition to feed itself through a more integrated continental market is gaining momentum, but progress remains uneven and fragile, according to a major new report that warns that without coordinated reforms and sustained investment, the continent will continue to rely heavily on food imports and remain vulnerable to global shocks.
The Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor (AATM) 2025, produced by policy think tank AKADEMIYA2063 in partnership with the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), argues that agrifood trade must be placed at the centre of Africa’s food security strategy. Five years into negotiations to operationalise the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), the report assesses how far the continent has moved towards building an integrated food market and what gaps must still be addressed to translate political ambition into measurable outcomes.
Launched at a hybrid event in Dakar attended by policymakers, regional institutions and development partners, the eighth edition of the annual flagship report notes that intra-African agricultural trade is expanding and regional value chains are emerging, yet Africa’s food system remains structurally dependent on imports, constrained by high trade costs, fragmented markets and weak coordination.
One of the most striking findings of the report is the scale of growth in intra-African agricultural trade over the past two decades. Between 2003 and 2023, trade within the continent tripled, rising from $6 billion to nearly $20 billion. This expansion, the report notes, reflects deepening interdependencies among African economies and the gradual strengthening of regional markets.
During periods of global disruption, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the fallout from the Russia–Ukraine war, African countries increasingly turned to neighbouring markets as more reliable trading partners. Cross-border trade within regional economic communities helped cushion the impact of global supply chain breakdowns, reinforcing the argument that regional integration can serve as a buffer against external shocks.
However, the report cautions that official data likely understate the true scale of intra-African trade. A significant share of food flows across borders remains informal and unrecorded, particularly in staples such as grains, livestock and horticultural products. These informal channels, while critical for food availability and livelihoods, also expose the weaknesses of current trade regimes and the costs of operating outside formal systems.
“The fact that so much trade takes place informally suggests that African food markets are more integrated than the data show,but also that regulatory and logistical barriers continue to discourage formalisation,” the report said.
Despite the growth in regional trade, Africa remains heavily dependent on food imports from outside the continent. According to the AATM 2025, Africa’s agricultural import bill reached a record $122.9 billion in 2022, underscoring the widening gap between domestic supply and demand.
Cereals account for the largest share of imports, with Northern Africa emerging as the leading importing region. Cereals alone now represent more than $31 billion of total food imports, followed by animal and vegetable fats and oils, sugar and sugar confectionery. For many countries, these imports are essential to meet urban demand, but they also expose economies to global price volatility and foreign exchange pressures.
Paradoxically, Africa continues to apply some of the world’s highest agrifood tariffs, while its exporters face restrictive non-tariff measures in major international markets such as the United States, China, India and Brazil. These barriers limit Africa’s ability to expand exports and diversify trade partners, reinforcing dependence on a narrow range of suppliers.
The report argues that this structural imbalance is increasingly unsustainable, particularly as climate shocks, geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic instability continue to disrupt global food markets.
Food security under pressure
Progress towards ending hunger and malnutrition in Africa has stalled in recent years, weighed down by a combination of climate extremes, conflict and economic shocks. The 2023–2024 El Niño event disrupted agricultural production in several regions, while the Russia–Ukraine war exacerbated global shortages and price spikes in cereals and fertilisers. The lingering effects of the pandemic have further strained public finances and household incomes.
Against this backdrop, the report positions intra-African trade as a critical coping mechanism. By strengthening regional markets and reducing reliance on distant suppliers, African countries can improve the availability and affordability of food during periods of global disruption.
“Africa’s food security challenges are increasingly intertwined with the structure of its trade. Growing import dependence, concentrated suppliers and exposure to global shocks mean that the continent must strengthen both domestic production and regional markets,” said Ousmane Badiane, executive chairperson of AKADEMIYA2063.
At the same time, he pointed to the opportunities highlighted by the report, including the rapid growth of intra-African trade, the emergence of new regional value chains and the untapped potential of strategic commodities such as rice and fertiliser.
One of the report’s in-depth case studies focuses on rice, one of Africa’s most important and fastest-growing staples. Demand for rice is expected to rise over the coming decades, driven by population growth, urbanisation and changing diets.
Yet domestic production has failed to keep pace. Average rice yields in Africa stand at just 2.1 tonnes per hectare, less than half the global average of 4.8 tonnes per hectare. As a result, Africa imports an average of 15 million tonnes of rice each year, supplying about 40 per cent of continental consumption.
If current trends continue, rice imports are projected to grow by 56 per cent by 2033, making Africa the world’s largest rice-importing region within a decade and accounting for an estimated 40 per cent of global rice imports.
The report argues that this trajectory represents both a risk and an opportunity. While rising import dependence increases exposure to global price shocks, targeted investments in productivity, irrigation, improved seed varieties and processing capacity could significantly reduce the gap between supply and demand.
Fertiliser is another critical input examined in the report. Despite its importance for boosting agricultural productivity, fertiliser use in Africa remains among the lowest in the world. Application rates average just 22–23 kilogrammes per hectare, far below the global average of 139 kilograms per hectare and well short of the 50 kilogrammes per hectare target set under the Abuja Declaration.
In 2023, fertiliser exports from the continent reached $14.7 billion, compared with $8.8 billion in imports, reflecting growing production capacity in countries such as Morocco and Nigeria. The challenge, the report argues, lies not in production but in distribution, affordability and coordination.
Weak intra-African fertiliser trade, high transport costs and fragmented markets mean that many farmers remain unable to access inputs at the right time and price. Improving regional fertiliser flows and strengthening distribution networks could help close yield gaps and reduce vulnerability to global supply disruptions.
The report also explores the interaction between regional economic communities (RECs), continental integration and multilateral trade. While most RECs support the objectives of the AfCFTA, trade performance varies widely across regions.
Over the past decade, intra-African agricultural trade increased from $14.8 billion to $16.6 billion, but progress has been uneven. COMESA, SADC and the Tripartite Free Trade Area (TFTA) recorded solid gains, while ECOWAS and CEMAC experienced significant declines.
“Despite progress, intra-African trade is still constrained by a number of barriers,” said Johan Swinnen, director general of IFPRI. He pointed to fragmented markets, high trade costs and weak coordination as persistent obstacles, calling for investments to modernise trade regimes and boost productivity.
The AATM 2025 sets out a clear policy agenda for strengthening Africa’s agrifood trade and improving food security. Key recommendations include deepening AfCFTA implementation by reducing tariffs and non-tariff barriers, harmonising standards and investing in cross-border infrastructure.
The report also emphasises the need to improve resilience through investments in productivity, logistics and supply chains, including better storage facilities, transport networks and market information systems. Lowering intra-African trade costs, it argues, is essential to making regional markets more competitive and reliable.
The report concludes that harmonised policies, sustained infrastructure investment and regulatory reform will be critical to unlocking the full potential of the AfCFTA and the Kampala CAADP Declaration.
