The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has issued a warning, calling for urgent and sustained investment in the global upstream oil sector to meet projected demand and prevent a future energy crunch. The cartel estimates a cumulative $14.9 trillion will be required for upstream operations between 2025 and 2050, representing the bulk of the total $18.2 trillion in oil-related investments needed over the 25-year period. This translates to an annual upstream investment requirement of $574 billion.
The revelation comes from OPEC’s newly released 2025 World Oil Outlook (WOO) , which firmly dismisses the notion of a looming peak in fossil fuel consumption as a fantasy. The report anticipates global oil demand will rise from 103.7 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2024 to 116.5 mb/d by 2045, ultimately peaking at around 123 mb/d by 2050 — an 18.6 per cent increase over 26 years.
Of the total $18.2 trillion investment requirement, upstream operations, encompassing exploration and production, are set to absorb the lion’s share at $14.9 trillion, or $574 billion per year. Midstream and downstream investments are projected to require $1.3 trillion and $2 trillion, respectively. The WOO 2025’s slightly higher investment projection compared to its 2024 predecessor is attributed to an upward revision of long-term oil demand and corresponding liquids supply.
Haitham Al Ghais, OPEC secretary-general, emphasised that continuous investment is essential to guarantee future energy security and affordability, particularly for the Global South. “There is no peak oil demand on the horizon,” Al Ghais declared in the report’s foreword. He criticised efforts to rapidly phase out fossil fuels as unrealistic and disregard energy security, affordability, and socio-economic realities of billions still lacking basic energy access.
The report highlights several key drivers for the rising oil demand, including rising global population growth, accelerated urbanisation, and the emergence of energy-intensive industries such as artificial intelligence and cloud computing. Global urbanisation is projected to climb from 57 per cent in 2024 to 68 per cent by 2050, with developing regions, notably Africa and Asia, accounting for the majority of this demographic shift. For instance, China’s urbanisation is set to reach 80 per cent, while India is projected to hit 53 per cent, up from below 37 per cent in 2024. “Urbanisation improves energy access and drives industrial growth, especially in economies still battling energy poverty,” the report stated.
Currently, North America, primarily the US and Canada, commands the largest share of upstream investment needs, nearly $250 billion per year, owing to high development costs and a dominant position in global liquids production. However, the WOO 2025 predicts a shift in investment focus over time, with the OPEC and Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) allies seeing their share of global upstream spending rise from 25 per cent in 2025 to 40 per cent by 2050, with annual investments almost doubling from $120 billion to nearly $240 billion. Other non-OPEC producers (excluding the U.S. and Canada) are expected to see their spending grow from $90 billion to just under $150 billion annually over the same period.
These projections contrast with those from the International Energy Agency (IEA), which maintains that global oil demand will peak before 2030 due to the widespread adoption of clean energy technologies. Al Ghais, however, criticised such outlooks as being politically motivated and detached from the energy realities faced by the developing world. “Many of the net-zero emission timelines have little regard for the feasibility or impact on developing economies. It has become increasingly clear that the idea of swiftly phasing out oil and gas is not only unworkable, it is a fantasy,” he asserted.
