Onome Amuge
Oil prices drifted lower on Tuesday as traders weighed renewed geopolitical tensions involving Russia and Ukraine against persistent concerns of a looming supply glut.
Brent crude slipped 0.4 per cent to $62.92 a barrel, while US benchmark West Texas Intermediate fell by a similar margin to $59.08. The pullback followed gains of more than 1 per cent across both contracts on Monday.
The softening in prices came as Russian President Vladimir Putin escalated his rhetoric ahead of a two-day visit to India later this week. Putin warned European governments that Moscow was prepared for direct conflict should they start a war with Russia, and threatened to restrict Ukraine’s access to the sea in retaliation for recent drone strikes on vessels linked to Russia’s so-called shadow fleet operating in the Black Sea.
Putin’s trip to India is expected to centre on efforts to deepen energy and defence ties, including proposals for expanded sales of Russian crude, weapon systems and fighter jets. Those relations have come under strain as the US has stepped up pressure on New Delhi to limit purchases of discounted Russian supplies since the start of the war.
“The mixed rhetoric caused a little shakedown in oil. Initially the market viewed it as a sign that Russia would continue to be a reliable supplier to India. But the more combative remarks signalled that a peace deal may be further away than hoped,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group.
Tensions around diplomatic channels also intensified as Donald Trump’s advisers (special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner ) were set to meet Putin on Tuesday for discussions aimed at exploring potential pathways to end the conflict.
Analysts said the market continues to toggle between expectations of oversupply and intermittent geopolitical shocks.
“The latest developments in the oversupplied global picture are putting pressure on prices. That pressure has been partly offset by disruptions to Russian infrastructure over the weekend and bubbling tensions between the US and Venezuela,” said Janiv Shah, analyst at Rystad Energy.
Over the weekend, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium resumed shipments from one of its mooring points at a Black Sea terminal after a major Ukrainian drone attack temporarily halted flows. Another Russian-flagged tanker carrying sunflower oil was reportedly targeted near Türkiye on Tuesday, adding to logistical uncertainty around Black Sea shipping lanes.
US President Donald Trump added to the unease on Saturday when he declared that the airspace above and surrounding Venezuela should be considered closed;a comment that rattled markets given Venezuela’s role as a significant crude supplier and its historically fragile production base.
Broader price pressures remain anchored in fears that the market may tip into surplus in the coming months as some OPEC+ members continue to increase production.
The producers’ alliance agreed at its Sunday meeting to maintain existing output targets through the first quarter of 2026, slowing its campaign to reclaim market share. The decision underscores concerns within the group that any aggressive push to loosen supply could intensify downward pressure on prices at a time when global demand indicators remain uneven.
Analysts say the tug-of-war between oversupply dynamics and escalating geopolitical flashpoints is likely to keep oil trading within a narrow, volatile range in the near term.
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