Onome Amuge
Africa’s economy could expand to as much as $5.23tn by 2035 if the continent successfully harnesses artificial intelligence to lift productivity and open new growth channels, according to a report by the African Development Bank.
In its study, Africa’s AI Productivity Gain: Pathways to Labour Efficiency, Economic Growth and Inclusive Transformation, the AfDB estimates that effective deployment of AI could add about $1 trillion to output over the next decade, equivalent to nearly a third of the continent’s current GDP.
Under the bank’s baseline scenario, which assumes gradual reform and steady investment, Africa’s economy is projected to reach $4.23 trillion by 2035. While stable, the report argues that this trajectory is insufficient to absorb a rapidly growing labour force or unlock productivity across key sectors.
By contrast, an AI-enabled scenario assumes coordinated advances in digital infrastructure, skills development, data governance, trust frameworks and capital mobilisation. If these conditions are met, the AfDB says Africa’s economy could reach $5.23 trillion, describing the outcome as a realistic and attainable dividend rather than a speculative forecast.
The report stresses that technology alone will not deliver growth. Policy alignment, institutional capacity and coordinated execution are critical to translating AI adoption into economic gains. “The AI dividend is not given, but it is attainable with concerted effort,” it said.
Beyond headline GDP growth, the AfDB links the AI-driven pathway to the creation of 35–40m net new digital and digitally enabled jobs by 2035, alongside an additional $150bn a year in tax revenues. These fiscal gains, it argues, could be redeployed into public services and support for small businesses.
The bank identifies five sectors including agriculture and food systems, wholesale and retail trade, manufacturing, finance and financial inclusion, and health and life sciences, as the main engines of AI-enabled growth. Together, they are expected to capture 58 per cent of the projected dividend, or about $580 billion.
Agriculture alone could account for about $200 billion, as AI improves decision-making across farming, logistics, insurance and access to finance. Wholesale and retail trade could generate a further $140 billion, driven by demand forecasting, inventory management and embedded finance for informal merchants. Manufacturing, finance and health together contribute an estimated $240 billion, reflecting efficiency gains and wider access to services.
Central to capturing this opportunity is what the AfDB terms an AI readiness flywheel, built on five interdependent enablers: data, computing infrastructure, skills, trust and capital. The report warns that delays beyond 2030 could leave African economies locked out of the current wave of global AI development.
Africa’s potential share of the global AI dividend is modelled at about 4 per cent of an estimated $25tn uplift by 2035, a level the bank describes as a fair reflection of productivity catch-up rather than convergence with advanced economies.
The report concludes with a call to policymakers, investors and development partners to act decisively, warning that fragmented approaches risk widening digital and economic divides rather than closing them.
