The global economy is entering 2026 with resilience but growing uncertainty, as geopolitical tensions, financial vulnerabilities and persistent social pressures weigh on the outlook for businesses and governments, according to new analysis from Coface.
The trade credit risk specialist expects the world economy to expand by 2.6 per cent in 2026, a marginal slowdown from 2.8 per cent recorded in 2025.
While growth remains positive, analysts say the global environment is increasingly complex, with the outlook shaped by geopolitical tensions, fragile financial conditions and uneven regional economic performance.
Despite these challenges, Coface notes that globalisation continues to show remarkable resilience, driven by the ability of businesses to adapt to shocks and by the deep interdependence of global supply chains and trade networks.
Global economy faces turbulent environment
The past year demonstrated how the world economy has managed to grow even in the face of significant disruptions.
According to the Coface report, 2025 met expectations with global growth of about 2.8 per cent, despite heightened political tensions, trade disputes and financial uncertainty.
The relative stability was partly due to the fact that many feared economic shocks, particularly those related to tariffs and trade disputes, ultimately proved less severe than expected.
Equally important has been the capacity of multinational companies and globally connected firms to adjust their strategies quickly in response to changing economic and political conditions.
Businesses with international supply chains, diversified markets and strong risk management capabilities were able to absorb shocks and maintain growth momentum, underscoring the continuing strength of global economic integration.
2026 begins under mounting pressures
However, the start of 2026 has been marked by rising uncertainty across several dimensions.
Geopolitical tensions have intensified in various parts of the world, including conflicts involving Iran, developments in Greenland and political instability in parts of Latin America.
Financial risks are also becoming more pronounced as governments, companies and households continue to grapple with elevated debt levels in an environment of persistently high interest rates.
The risk of asset price corrections in global financial markets is another concern, particularly in economies where valuations have climbed significantly during years of loose monetary policy.
At the same time, macroeconomic uncertainty remains high, partly driven by shifting policy signals from the United States and the continued possibility of renewed trade tensions between major economies.
Beyond economic risks, Coface analysts also highlight growing social and political tensions in several regions, particularly across Europe where dissatisfaction over inequality, living costs and political governance has intensified.
Overlaying these pressures are the long-term challenges posed by climate change and public health risks, which continue to influence economic stability and policy decisions worldwide.
Africa poised for stronger growth
Against this complex backdrop, Africa is expected to remain one of the faster-growing regions of the global economy.
Coface forecasts that the continent’s economy will expand by 4.3 per cent in 2026, slightly higher than the 4.2 per cent growth recorded in 2025.
The stronger outlook reflects a combination of favourable commodity dynamics and improving macroeconomic conditions across several African economies.
Prices of food and energy, commodities that many African countries rely on importing, are expected to remain relatively moderate, easing inflationary pressures and supporting economic stability.
Meanwhile, the outlook for minerals and metals has strengthened significantly as global demand for industrial inputs rises while supply bottlenecks constrain production.
This trend is likely to benefit several African economies that are major exporters of these commodities.
Countries such as Zambia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo are expected to gain from higher copper prices, while Ghana stands to benefit from strong demand for gold.
Similarly, Guinea could see increased revenues from rising global demand for bauxite and iron ore.
According to Aroni Chaudhuri, Africa economist at Coface, stronger commodity markets could generate broader macroeconomic benefits for many African economies.
“Alongside the direct impact on growth, these trends support stronger currencies, thus lower imported inflation, and enable the building of foreign exchange reserves,” Chaudhuri said.
He added that improved external balances would give governments greater fiscal flexibility, particularly in countries facing tight public finances and high financing requirements.
Uneven global growth outlook
While Africa’s outlook appears relatively robust, growth prospects in other regions remain uneven.
In the United States, economic expansion is projected at 2.2 per cent in 2026, supported by strong consumer spending.
However, corporate financial stress is beginning to emerge. Insolvencies among US companies rose 15 per cent in the second half of 2025, highlighting the strain that higher borrowing costs have placed on businesses.
The outlook for Europe remains more subdued.
Economic activity in the eurozone is expected to grow by around 1 per cent, with modest recovery supported partly by stronger investment spending in Germany.
Germany’s rebound is being driven by a major public investment programme aimed at strengthening infrastructure and industrial capacity.
Meanwhile, France is projected to grow by roughly 0.9 per cent, constrained by persistent fiscal challenges, including a public deficit that remains above 5 per cent of GDP.
Central European economies have shown stronger momentum, led by Poland where growth is expected to reach 3.8 per cent.
In Asia, economic trends are also mixed.
China’s economy is forecast to expand by 4.4 per cent, reflecting slower growth as the country navigates structural adjustments in its property market and manufacturing sector.
Conversely, India continues to stand out as one of the world’s fastest-growing major economies.
Coface projects Indian growth of 6.1 per cent, driven by strong domestic demand, infrastructure investment and supportive government policies.
Within Africa, growth patterns are expected to vary significantly by country and sector.
In South Africa, increased mining activity could play a crucial role in supporting economic expansion despite long-standing structural challenges.
The country’s growth potential remains relatively low, below 2 per cent, due to infrastructure constraints, energy shortages and policy uncertainty.
However, stronger mining output could stimulate related industries through supply chains and industrial linkages.
A stronger rand and lower fuel prices are also expected to keep inflation within the target range of the central bank, creating room for further monetary easing during 2026.
In Morocco, economic performance is projected to remain solid, with growth forecast at 4.4 per cent in 2026 following 4.6 per cent expansion in 2025.
Agricultural output is expected to recover gradually after favourable weather conditions toward the end of 2025.
Construction activity will also play a central role in supporting growth, as infrastructure investment accelerates ahead of the 2030 FIFA World Cup, which Morocco will co-host.
Tourism remains another major pillar of the Moroccan economy, with visitor arrivals approaching 20 million in 2025, providing strong support for services and consumer spending.
Global trade has also proved more resilient than many analysts had expected.
Despite concerns over tariff disputes and protectionist policies, trade volumes grew by 3.9 per cent in 2025.
Much of the growth was driven by strong import demand from the United States and by tariff levels that ultimately proved lower than initially feared during periods of heightened trade tensions with China.
By November 2025, the effective average tariff rate stood at 9.4 per cent, far below earlier projections of 36 per cent.
While companies continue to adapt to shifting geopolitical and economic realities, the growing range of risks facing the global economy indicates that navigating the years ahead will require greater vigilance, stronger policy coordination and more robust risk management strategies.
As the global economy moves deeper into 2026, analysts say the key challenge will be sustaining growth while managing the multiple geopolitical, financial and structural risks that increasingly shape the international business environment.
