Africa’s energy security architecture is facing one of its most severe stress tests in recent history, as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly those tied to the ongoing Iran war, continue to choke critical fuel supply routes and trigger widespread disruption across global petroleum markets.
The current disruption is fundamentally anchored in the vulnerability of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint in global energy logistics. Heightened geopolitical tensions have impaired vessel mobility across this route, thereby compressing downstream supply chains and disproportionately impacting import-reliant economies such as those in Africa.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), 600,000 barrels per day of petroleum products ordinarily destined for African markets are now at risk. The disruption has forced shipping activity through the Strait to slow dramatically, raising alarms among policymakers and energy traders alike.
The implications for Africa are profound. For decades, the continent has leaned heavily on imported refined petroleum products due to chronic underinvestment in domestic refining infrastructure.
Despite producing about seven per cent of the world’s crude oil, Africa has lost nearly one-third of its refining capacity over the past two decades. This erosion has entrenched a reliance on external suppliers, particularly from the Middle East and India, leaving many countries dangerously exposed to external shocks.
Data from Kpler shows that petroleum product loadings bound for Africa fell sharply from 580,000 metric tonnes in January to just 183,000 metric tonnes in February, a collapse of 68.4 per cent. By March, volumes had plunged to zero, marking a complete breakdown in supply flows within a single quarter.
Compounding the crisis is a notable shift in global fuel trade dynamics. As supply tightens and prices rise, cargoes are increasingly being diverted to more lucrative markets, particularly in Asia.
Industry tracking shows that several shipments originally earmarked for Europe and Africa have been rerouted eastward. One illustrative case involves the tanker Brest, which, after loading in India and initially heading toward Rotterdam, abruptly altered course near East Africa and redirected to Indonesia, an indication of where demand, and pricing power, now resides.
Further reinforcing this trend, data from S&P Global indicates that Indian diesel exports to Southeast Asia have surged to their highest levels since May 2025. Nearly half of India’s total diesel shipments in March were absorbed by Southeast Asian markets, leaving African importers scrambling for alternatives.
The ripple effects are already being felt across the continent, with East and Southern Africa emerging as the most vulnerable regions due to their heavy dependence on Middle Eastern imports.
In Kenya, where daily fuel consumption hovers around 100,000 barrels and all refined products are imported, the situation is becoming critical. The country maintains fuel reserves sufficient for just 21 days, leaving minimal buffer against prolonged disruption.
Martin Chomba, chairman of the Petroleum Outlets Association of Kenya, confirmed that the strain is already visible at the retail level.
“The biggest suppliers are rationing product, and some distributors are experiencing stock-outs in rural areas,” he said, highlighting the early signs of a broader supply crunch.
Similarly, Ethiopia has begun implementing demand-side measures to manage dwindling supplies. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has urged citizens to curtail fuel usage, directing available resources toward essential services.
In a public statement, he emphasised that fuel consumption must now be prioritised for “basic and essential needs,” reflecting the gravity of the situation facing one of East Africa’s largest economies.
South Africa, another major consumer, is also bracing for potential disruption. Jacob Mbele, Director-General at the country’s Department of Mineral Resources, acknowledged the uncertainty.
In West Africa, a different dynamic is unfolding. As traditional supply routes falter, the region is increasingly turning to Russian exports to bridge the gap.
Kpler data shows that 480,000 metric tonnes of Russian diesel arrived in West Africa in February, with an additional 446,000 metric tonnes expected in March. These figures represent some of the highest inflows recorded in recent months.
This pivot toward Russian supply highlights a geopolitical and commercial recalibration in global energy markets. Suppliers are redirecting volumes toward regions where margins are highest, while buyers are adjusting sourcing strategies in response to shifting availability.
Amid the continent-wide strain, Nigeria appears relatively better positioned, though not entirely insulated, thanks to recent investments in domestic refining.
The Dangote Refinery, a 650,000-barrels-per-day facility that commenced operations in 2024, is gradually ramping up output and is expected to meet a substantial share of the country’s estimated 493,000 barrels per day fuel demand.
Combined with smaller modular refineries, the facility offers Nigeria a degree of insulation from external shocks that many other African nations lack.
Energy experts warn that the current crisis could have far-reaching implications for fuel prices, inflation, and broader economic stability across Africa.
With supply tightening and competition intensifying, pump prices are likely to rise, placing additional strain on households and businesses already grappling with economic headwinds. Transport costs, food prices, and industrial output could all be affected in a cascading economic impact.
More fundamentally, the crisis is exposing a deeper vulnerability, given Africa’s overdependence on imported refined products in an increasingly volatile geopolitical environment.
The situation underscores the urgent need for structural reforms, including accelerated investment in domestic refining capacity, diversification of supply sources, and the development of strategic fuel reserves.
Absent such measures, analysts warn, similar disruptions could recur with increasing frequency and severity, each time amplifying economic shocks across the continent.
