Nigeria is positioning itself to play a more active role in stabilising global oil markets, with plans to raise crude oil production by an additional 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the coming months, according to Bashir Bayo Ojulari, Group chief executive officer of Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL).
The proposed increase, disclosed on the sidelines of the CERAWeek by S&P Global in Houston, comes at a time when geopolitical tensions, particularly involving the United States, Iran, and Israel, continue to disrupt global oil supply chains and push prices higher.
Ojulari noted that while Nigeria may not rival the output scale of leading producers such as Saudi Arabia, the country is steadily building the capacity to contribute meaningfully to global supply.
“We are building that capacity. We are not like Saudi Arabia, but we can contribute,” he said.
Nigeria’s planned output increase is part of a concerted effort to meet its 2026 production target of 1.8 million bpd, up from the 1.6 to 1.7 million bpd range recorded in 2025.
The additional 100,000 bpd could serve as a buffer against supply disruptions in global markets, particularly as tensions in the Middle East threaten critical oil transit routes and production facilities.
However, the road to higher output remains uneven. Data from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) shows that Nigeria’s crude production fell to 1.31 million bpd in February 2026, highlighting the persistent volatility in output levels. While production rebounded to 1.459 million bpd in January, the fluctuations underscore the structural challenges facing the sector.
NNPCL noted that it completed a comprehensive portfolio review in 2025 and has since shifted focus toward streamlining operations, reducing project delays, and ensuring cost discipline. These measures are expected to enhance productivity across upstream assets and support incremental output gains.
In parallel with operational reforms, NNPC Ltd is pursuing an ambitious investment strategy aimed at attracting up to $30 billion in capital by 2030. The company has also initiated a process to divest stakes in selected oil and gas assets, signalling a shift toward portfolio optimisation and capital recycling.
NNPC holds a mix of wholly owned and joint venture assets, partnering with international oil majors such as Shell, Chevron, Eni, and TotalEnergies. While details of the planned divestments remain undisclosed, the move is expected to unlock capital for reinvestment in higher-yield projects and new field development.
The company is also preparing to develop new oil fields from 2026, a step that could significantly expand Nigeria’s production capacity over the medium term.
Nigeria’s fiscal health remains closely tied to crude oil production and global price dynamics. Increased output has the potential to boost government revenues, strengthen external reserves, and ease pressure on public finances.
The federal government initially set an ambitious production benchmark of 2.6 million bpd for the 2026 budget but later revised this to a more conservative 1.8 million bpd, reflecting the gap between targets and actual performance in recent years.
Analysts note that even modest gains in production could have a meaningful impact on revenue generation, particularly in a high-price environment driven by geopolitical uncertainty.
However, they caution that sustained improvements will depend on addressing structural issues such as pipeline vandalism, regulatory bottlenecks, and investment shortfalls.
